(Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Discuss anything you like about chess related matters in this forum.
Tim Spanton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Tim Spanton » Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:43 am

Good news, it would seem, from the BBC:

Covid: Are cases about to plummet without Plan B?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59039739

MartinCarpenter
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by MartinCarpenter » Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:53 am

Messy, and goodness knows! The headline is nonsense though - there's no 'plummet' in those models :( Its staying steady with wide variation around a very unpleasant level of deaths/infections.

Flu & friends coming to help things along is fairly inevitable.

The thing that nice article linked above slightly missed with teams matches is transport. If you do the traditional shared lift model with 4/5 in each car, then if 1 was infected at the start of the journey everyone in the car is going to be & so on during the match.
(Although I guess it likely takes a while for people to become infectuous themselves?).

Tim Spanton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Tim Spanton » Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:33 am

I guess it depends on how you define plummet, but the relevant quote from the article seems clear enough:

"[T]here is actually a school of thought that we may be on the brink of seeing infection levels plummet.
Modelling done for the government suggests cases and deaths could soon start to fall dramatically."

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:12 pm

There are tentative signs of the present wave at least starting to level off, in any case. As previously stated, the government isn't likely to bring back major restrictions unless it is absolutely forced to, so this maybe indicates little change there for the foreseeable.
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MartinCarpenter
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by MartinCarpenter » Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:23 pm

OK, I was misreading the graphs they gave as being from the model predictions, not historical :) We'll see I guess.

We could definitely really do with getting the current levels far lower before real winter.

Mick Norris
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Mick Norris » Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:26 pm

Matthew Turner wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:48 pm
An interesting opinion piece

https://www.matthewwilsonphd.com/post/c ... y-uk-chess
Interesting, but is anybody paying attention?

I sat through the trailers and full Bond movie last night at the cinema, over 3 hours wearing a mask, no problem for me (although despite being compulsory, fewer than half those at the cinema in Preston were doing so :roll: )
Any postings on here represent my personal views

NickFaulks
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by NickFaulks » Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:24 am

Matthew Turner wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:48 pm
An interesting opinion piece

https://www.matthewwilsonphd.com/post/c ... y-uk-chess
The writer's hope is presumably that many people will stop playing chess, preferring to congregate in more friendly environments such as pubs, restaurants and their own homes.

Perhaps he has ideas of cracking down on them too.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a QR code stamped on a human face — forever.

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Stephen Westmoreland
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Stephen Westmoreland » Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:44 am

There was an interesting, if not vocal, discussion on Facebook over this.
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Angus French
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Angus French » Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:10 am

NickFaulks wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:24 am
Matthew Turner wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:48 pm
An interesting opinion piece

https://www.matthewwilsonphd.com/post/c ... y-uk-chess
The writer's hope is presumably that many people will stop playing chess, preferring to congregate in more friendly environments such as pubs, restaurants and their own homes.

Perhaps he has ideas of cracking down on them too.
Or maybe he was concerned for their safety.

Simon Rogers
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Simon Rogers » Wed Oct 27, 2021 11:29 am

On a different note, I am pleased to inform you that we had another two new people join Poulton-le-Fylde Chess Club on Monday. Both around 90 grade. One has moved from King's Head Chess Club in London and has also played in Kent and Hastings. The other was a former founding member of Lady of Westminster Chess Club, which morphed into Westminster Chess Club, Birmingham.

NickFaulks
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by NickFaulks » Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:01 pm

Angus French wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:10 am
Or maybe he was concerned for their safety.
He may well think that they would be safer if they stayed at home by themselves. He may even be right, but I am suggesting that in reality they are more likely to do something else, so he would have to stop that too.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a QR code stamped on a human face — forever.

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Stephen Westmoreland
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Stephen Westmoreland » Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:06 pm

It is about individual choice and risk appetite. Not have those on high, take that away. Unpopular view these days.
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Jacques Parry
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Jacques Parry » Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:31 pm

Stephen Westmoreland wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:06 pm
It is about individual choice and risk appetite.
Yes, but the individual choice is a moral choice as well as a calculation of one's personal risk tolerance. As Professor Wilson points out, "The moral case for the risk mitigation measures above extends beyond the risk to the players; consideration should be given to the partners and families of players and wider society. The chain of infection will not stop at the doors of the congress."
NickFaulks wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:24 am
The writer's hope is presumably that many people will stop playing chess, preferring to congregate in more friendly environments such as pubs, restaurants and their own homes.
What evidence do you have that he doesn't mean what he says, viz. that chess organisers need to take appropriate precautions?

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Stephen Westmoreland
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Stephen Westmoreland » Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:41 pm

Probably some of the wider posts on this with non playing commentators...
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Joseph Conlon
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Joseph Conlon » Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:24 pm

I think it is pertinent to ask the blog author, and those of similar persuasion, under what circumstances they would ever drop the mandatory requirements they would like to impose.

Covid is endemic and it is not going away. It will not be eliminated and we will all be exposed to it sooner or later (if not already). Vaccines work. One can argue that it it is better to be exposed to Covid now - while the effect of vaccination is still relatively fresh - than in 18 months time. Equally, one can argue that attempting to eliminate any spread of infectious diseases is unhealthy and results in a long-term lack of immunity that allows subsequent vicious epidemics years later.

Given this, I don't see any more a strong third party argument to stop two willing players competing without masks (certainly not to protect those who choose not to be vaccinated).

I presume those who *really* want to avoid catching Covid themselves wear N95 masks in public environments; by observation, this fraction is relatively small.

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