(Chess) Life Returning To Normal

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NickFaulks
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by NickFaulks » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:25 am

MartinCarpenter wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:53 am
What we certainly can't do is to open everything out at once.
That's what I don't get. If people are allowed to go out at all, then they will go out. If their first choice is playing chess but that is banned, they will go to a pub or restaurant instead. The only way to keep them in is a full curfew, anything less just degrades their lives for no purpose.
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JustinHorton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by JustinHorton » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:42 am

NickFaulks wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:25 am
MartinCarpenter wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:53 am
What we certainly can't do is to open everything out at once.
That's what I don't get. If people are allowed to go out at all, then they will go out. If their first choice is playing chess but that is banned, they will go to a pub or restaurant instead.
I don't think this is true across the board. It may certainly be true for some people, but it doesn't seem to describe how most people are actually acting.
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MartinCarpenter
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by MartinCarpenter » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:48 am

JustinHorton wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:42 am
NickFaulks wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:25 am
MartinCarpenter wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:53 am
What we certainly can't do is to open everything out at once.
That's what I don't get. If people are allowed to go out at all, then they will go out. If their first choice is playing chess but that is banned, they will go to a pub or restaurant instead.
I don't think this is true across the board. It may certainly be true for some people, but it doesn't seem to describe how most people are actually acting.
It certainly isn't even - or we'd be rapidly heading towards the same place as America right now.

Working out what changes/controls population level behaviours like this is incredibly hard. Loads of guesswork even for the experts I suspect.

Jacob Ward
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Jacob Ward » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:08 pm

Is there actually anything prohibiting league chess restarting?

My understanding is that the issue is that (1) not enough players feel chess is worth the risk to make it a particularly compelling economic case for the venues, (2) some existing venues are too small for social distancing/reasonable precautions, and (3) some tournament directors and club presidents don't want all the additional headache of sanitising etc just to run a half-empty club. I.e. practical issues. I don't think the law actually stops chess clubs from opening.

I am hoping things can reopen soon, but if a longer delay means more people are willing to play, that doesn't seem completely mad. Restarting too soon with a poor turnout might do more harm than good.

Roger de Coverly
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Roger de Coverly » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:50 pm

Jacob Ward wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:08 pm
I don't think the law actually stops chess clubs from opening.
I think it depends on how you interpret the "no more then two households" rule.

Regardless of the law, it's a risk to spend three hours in the company of someone infectious, particularly given the usual demographics of chess clubs. But what's the probability of meeting someone infectious? If it's telephone number to one, do you ignore it?

Jacques Parry
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Jacques Parry » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:33 pm

Roger de Coverly wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:50 pm
Jacob Ward wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:08 pm
I don't think the law actually stops chess clubs from opening.
I think it depends on how you interpret the "no more then two households" rule.
That is not a legal rule. It's just guidance, which the Government chooses to phrase as if it were a legal rule. Jacob is correct.

MartinCarpenter
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by MartinCarpenter » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:35 pm

Roger de Coverly wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:50 pm
But what's the probability of meeting someone infectious? If it's telephone number to one, do you ignore it?
+-1/2000 population overall, and relatively stable. Changing a bit according to where you live & other demographics of course.
(https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... lot/latest)

You can maybe screen infected people out at 50% efficiency, but then multiply by 10 or so for a teams match and you're down to 1/4-500 odds, with non trivial consequences if you're wrong.

Try and run the normal set of teams that many chess clubs run from the same room/sets and you'll fairly rapidly end up facing quite short odds of having an outbreak, ill people, having to shut the club room down to deep clean it/your equipment etc. The numbers aren't kind :(
(also pubs/restaurants of course!)

Scotland/Ireland are trying for 'elimination' iirc, and they might well be able to reopen rather sooner. Our infection rate was only coming down very slowly near the end of lock down, so maybe we decided it wasn't possible.

David Sedgwick
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by David Sedgwick » Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:20 pm

Jacob Ward wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:08 pm
Is there actually anything prohibiting league chess restarting?
I attach for information only a statement on this by the Board of Surrey County Chess Association
Attachments
SCCA Board Message for Clubs and SCCA Officials in Relation to Covid-19.pdf
(296.07 KiB) Downloaded 75 times

Roger de Coverly
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Roger de Coverly » Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:41 pm

David Sedgwick wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:20 pm
I attach for information only a statement on this by the Board of Surrey County Chess Association
Surrey wrote: The Board expects that club venue owners will need time to restart their own operations and get comfortable with new ways of working to stay safe and so are very unlikely to be receptive to 3rd party hirers wishing to be admitted to their premises at this time.
That may be over pessimistic.

My local community centre (not in Surrey), has indicated that it will be reopening from 1st September and has invited regular hirers to consider whether subject to a suitable risk assessment, they want to resume regular hires. I couldn't see much activity other than an internal competition or perhaps limited board friendlies being possible. There's space enough with a limited number of players to use a two boards or long arms approach as seen elsewhere.

Mick Norris
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Mick Norris » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:36 pm

MartinCarpenter wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:35 pm
Roger de Coverly wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:50 pm
But what's the probability of meeting someone infectious? If it's telephone number to one, do you ignore it?
+-1/2000 population overall, and relatively stable. Changing a bit according to where you live & other demographics of course.
(https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... lot/latest)

You can maybe screen infected people out at 50% efficiency, but then multiply by 10 or so for a teams match and you're down to 1/4-500 odds, with non trivial consequences if you're wrong.

Try and run the normal set of teams that many chess clubs run from the same room/sets and you'll fairly rapidly end up facing quite short odds of having an outbreak, ill people, having to shut the club room down to deep clean it/your equipment etc. The numbers aren't kind :(
(also pubs/restaurants of course!)

Scotland/Ireland are trying for 'elimination' iirc, and they might well be able to reopen rather sooner. Our infection rate was only coming down very slowly near the end of lock down, so maybe we decided it wasn't possible.
From the BBC website
Separate households will not be allowed to meet indoors in Greater Manchester, East Lancashire and parts of West Yorkshire from midnight, the government has announced
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

NickFaulks
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by NickFaulks » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:08 am

Burnley has a Conservative MP, that's serious.
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Mick Norris
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Mick Norris » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:50 am

We have a Tory here too
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J T Melsom
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by J T Melsom » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:15 am

Oadby and Wigston ( caught by the Leicester lock-down) also has a Conservative MP. The point of the original post?

Mick Norris
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Mick Norris » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:52 am

J T Melsom wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:15 am
Oadby and Wigston ( caught by the Leicester lock-down) also has a Conservative MP. The point of the original post?
And we now have
The borough of Oadby and Wigston on the outskirts of Leicester is taken out of local lockdown
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

NickFaulks
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by NickFaulks » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:59 am

Until now I believed the areas lined up for punishment beatings were all Labour strongholds - I did not realise that O&W was locked down. Given the trouble they are already having with their own MPs, that did at least seem logical.

Anyway, my theory is busted and I have read that the Tories whose constituencies are affected are indeed complaining.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever.

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