English Chess Forum

Who do you think is most likely to dethrone Magnus? Is it just the two-horse race I see it as, namely Dubov/Firouzja or is someone likely to come from nowhere. I don't think anyone will beat him for 5-10 years but since both the aforementioned as still so young, its hard to say. I have my money on Firouzja but then its still mostly conjecture, if ascension to the throne is still a way off, which surely it must be?

If I had to make a guess on any one person, I'd pick Vachier-Lagrave, simply because he has a very good chance of being the next challenger. But these sorts of predictions are very hard to make.

Sure, but it seems to me as though Carlsen always has the upper hand against him and those from his generation for want of a better term. Naka had got stronger but I can't see anyone dethroning him for some time and both Fourzja and Dubov seem on a par with Carlsen tactically already.

He's been world champion for 7 years now, only another 20 to go before he overtakes Lasker, although somehow I don't think he will quite get there.

It kind of needs to be someone who hasn't grown up playing tournaments and coming second to Magnus their entire career, as most of his age group fear him and tend to play worse in matches as a consequence.

I would guess Alireza Firouzja will become world champion one day - he's 13 years younger then Carlsen so even if Magnus remains dominant the age advantage will be telling by the time firouzja hits his peak.

Hi MJM,

"He's [Carlsen] been world champion for 7 years now, only another 20 to go before he overtakes Lasker."

Rather than use number of years a player held the world title it would perhaps be, for the want
of a better word, 'fairer' if we counted the number of World Championships matches they won.
Pre FIDE the World Champion could pick who, when and where they played.

'fairer' is a cop out, used it rather than 'more accurate' My New Years resolution is not
to leave the door open for a counter argument - though I think I just did.
(My New Years resolution lasted 11 hours and 50 minutes.)

Lasker won 6 title matches so Carlsen needs another three to overtake him.
(Fischer, Tal, Spassky, Capablanca, Smyslov and Euwe only won one!)

I agree with Jack, the player currently with the best chance of dethroning Carlsen is MVL
simply because, unless there is a sudden collapse, he will be the next challenger.

MVL's chances? 50/50. (back on the fence again, I'm trying to rescue my New Years resolution.)

I think Hikaru Nakamura could surprise him. He does play offbeat openings from time to time and could catch him out.
The other player is the 14 year old from India, Leon Mendonca, who has just become a Grandmaster.

Nakamura's recent record against Carlsen has improved a bit, but his deficit in classical games especially is still pretty vast.

Matt Mackenzie wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 01, 2021 1:15 pm

Nakamura's recent record against Carlsen has improved a bit, but his deficit in classical games especially is still pretty vast.

And crucially, he has to qualify to play him first.

Joey Stewart wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:07 am

It kind of needs to be someone who hasn't grown up playing tournaments and coming second to Magnus their entire career, as most of his age group fear him and tend to play worse in matches as a consequence.

I would guess Alireza Firouzja will become world champion one day - he's 13 years younger then Carlsen so even if Magnus remains dominant the age advantage will be telling by the time firouzja hits his peak.

Yes couldn't agree more. It does seem as though Magnus is less so in his comfort zone against those a generation younger. As you say, almost everyone from his generation grew up losing to him. Caruana came close but Magnus does seem to have that extra gear which will just about blow anyone away. I don't know who will qualify next but not for another five years or so will we really see his title come end threat. I don't know why anyone thinks MVL has a chance, although Kramnik was a second, too, -to Kasparov of course, and then took his title off him, so maybe.

Nakamura.

Nick Grey wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:32 pm

Nakamura.

All right, what odds are you looking for?

Slight I'd say. They do seem to be closer in strength but Magnus does seem to have an extra gear in reserve. That victory against Giri recently where he converted that rook and bishop endgame was true masterclass. Only he can play like that.

7/1 on a 7 year itch. Magnus may give up.

Nick Grey wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:10 am

Magnus may give up.

Little sign of that so far, despite occasional speculation.