Chess boom?

[Roger de Coverly]

In 2019, 13,947 played standard play with 12,271 equivalent in 2022

We can look back at Richard Hadrell's analysis which was stable in terms of head count from one year to the next.

http://www.sccu-chess.com/archive/1213/grad.htm is from ten years ago
The analysis runs up to 2016
http://www.sccu-chess.com/archive/1516/grad.htm

July 2013 (12 months July 2012 to June 2013) was 12,333 and twelve months earlier it had been 12,640

The older statistics also had the number of games played, but counted in half games. Is there anything more recent?

[Brian Valentine]

I haven't continued Richard's tables. The nearest equivalent is a report under development in https://www.ecfrating.org.uk/doc/stats/ ... csV2.html . In essence the numbers I have been quoting are under the bonnet of this report. The report has not been updated as it has needed a revamp especially since the tables are getting rather long and unilluminating, also further stats are now available -redesign in progress.

[Angus French]

....Thanks Brian. Um, I was really interested in annual figures - like Richard Haddrell used to publish (but without the breakdown detail) and to answer the questions: were there fewer active OTB players in 2022 than in 2019 and, if yes, how much smaller was the population? The monthly figures you've provided give some indication but a player will play in some months but not others (typically summer months). I appreciate we now have a monthly rating system.

There are reasons that these numbers are not 100%, but curating them for e.g. players who are only there by way of one default, does not justify the effort. The 2022 numbers might increase by a few as late results arrive.

In 2019, 13,947 played standard play with 12,271 equivalent in 2022; 7,004 are found in both lists. If we look at all lists combined (obviously online and OTB blitz were not available for rating in 2019) the corresponding numbers are 22,694/19,156/8,763.

As a rule of thumb there is c15% turnover each year, lapses heavily weighted to new players. This implies people in both lists 3 years apart should be over 60%.

Thanks Brian. 12,271 standard play players in 2022 vs. 13,947 in 2019 (=88%) strikes me as not bad. But just 7,004 in both lists (an attrition rate of 49.8%) is, I think, not so good (as you say, the annual attrition rate is not great and this has long been so but the three-year number for 2019 -> 2022 seems especially big). The combined online and OTB numbers look good but am I reading it correctly that the combined number was lower in 2022 than in 2019 - if, yes, what happened to the (pandemic + Queen's Gambit) online boom?

FWIW, I have figures (from grading lists made available to results officers) for the grading years 2009/10 to 2018/19. These show, for example:
- players with a category A-E grade playing 1+ standard or rapid games ranging from 11,627 (2009/10) to 15,049 (2018/19)
- players playing 1+ standard or rapid games (regardless of whether player has a grade) ranging from 15,037 (2009/10) to 21,946 (2018/19)
- average annual % of leavers (for years 2010/11 to 2018/19, with leavers defined as having a grade for the previous yr but not the current yr) - 19.2%
- average annual % of joiners (for years 2010/11 to 2018/19, with joiners defined as having a grade for the current yr but not the previous yr) - 22.3%.

[Roger de Coverly]

FWIW, I have figures (from grading lists made available to results officers) for the grading years 2009/10 to 2018/19. These show, for example:
- players with a category A-E grade playing 1+ standard or rapid games ranging from 11,627 (2009/10) to 15,049 (2018/19)
- players playing 1+ standard or rapid games (regardless of whether player has a grade) ranging from 15,037 (2009/10) to 21,946 (2018/19)
- average annual % of leavers (for years 2010/11 to 2018/19, with leavers defined as having a grade for the previous yr but not the current yr) - 19.2%
- average annual % of joiners (for years 2010/11 to 2018/19, with joiners defined as having a grade for the current yr but not the previous yr) - 22.3%.

There were some differences between 2009/10 and 2018/19.

Over that period more junior events became rated, which affects rapidplay counts and turnover. Also I think Yorkshire had rejoined national grading by the end of the period.

There were a number of events that took place in 2019 that didn't take place in 2022. I expect we need to see 2023 out to establish whether these are permanent losses and whether new events have replaced them. Also as to whether league, club, inter-county and junior activity has recovered to 2019 levels.

[MartinCarpenter]

What's bad about a ~50% attrition rate when we'd have expected 40% over three normal years?

Of course we lost some extra players over Covid. We have quite an old demographic in places and some of them will be pretty cautious in returning. Also some people just didn't play the game for a couple of years, some of them will have lost the habit and/or moved entirely online.

It could have been much worse - as I think it has been for bridge. The test is how quickly we can recover and rebuild over the next 5-10 years - even with optimistic assumptions it'll take a little while to convert extra interest/online players into regular league players.

[Alex McFarlane]

The 'drop out' rate may not be as high as it seems. Players from outwith England will contribute to this figure if they come for only one tournament such as Hastings or the London Classic. Even Scots playing in Blackpool or Scarborough will distort the figures.
if comparing retention rates, although still not accurate, it would be better to exclude all players who have a FIDE designation which is not ENG (ie only players without a FIDE code or those with the ENG designation).

[Simon Rogers]

The 'drop out' rate may not be as high as it seems. Players from outwith England will contribute to this figure if they come for only one tournament such as Hastings or the London Classic. Even Scots playing in Blackpool or Scarborough will distort the figures.
if comparing retention rates, although still not accurate, it would be better to exclude all players who have a FIDE designation which is not ENG (ie only players without a FIDE code or those with the ENG designation).

Nicola Sturgeon also visited Blackpool on 10th November last year for her first face to face meeting with Rushi Sunak. It was held at the Boulevard Hotel at the Pleasure Beach.
I'm not sure if any chess was played, though.

[LawrenceCooper]

Nicola Sturgeon also visited Blackpool on 10th November last year for her first face to face meeting with Rushi Sunak. It was held at the Boulevard Hotel at the Pleasure Beach.
I'm not sure if any chess was played, though.

I suspect it ended in stalemate.

[Tim Spanton]

Nicola Sturgeon also visited Blackpool on 10th November last year for her first face to face meeting with Rushi Sunak. It was held at the Boulevard Hotel at the Pleasure Beach.
I'm not sure if any chess was played, though.

I suspect it ended in stalemate.

Not a grandmaster draw?

[LawrenceCooper]

Nicola Sturgeon also visited Blackpool on 10th November last year for her first face to face meeting with Rushi Sunak. It was held at the Boulevard Hotel at the Pleasure Beach.
I'm not sure if any chess was played, though.

I suspect it ended in stalemate.

Not a grandmaster draw?

I doubt they would agree on anything.

[Simon Rogers]

One new player last week, who has only been playing online and has a rating of 1200.
New player tonight, who is another Russian/Latvian. Brings the total to three Russian/Latvian that we have.

[MSoszynski]

Screenshot 2023-01-24 at 17-59-18 Chess.com.png

[Paul Heaton]

As someone on Twitter pointed out (though I would say second is not restricted to kids):

'Chess' - the centuries old tactical battle played out over hours face to face is dying.

'Chess' - the game where kids with short attention spans try to move pieces as fast as possible on a computer screen and win on time is booming.

[Matthew Turner]

Chess.com commentating on the recent boom in online play and that their servers are struggling.

https://www.chess.com/blog/CHESScom/che ... struggling

[Nick Ivell]

I think I would remove the quotation marks from the tactical battle chess.