English Chess Forum

This seems a very active debate on Wijk twitch so I though I'd ask here.

My vote is for Fabi, I believe Magnus' rating is a bit protected by inactivity and his openings not what they were. I don't think Gukesh is at his peak yet.

Given that gukesh hasn't really shown a great appetite for speed chess one can only assume his primary carer focus is going to be on classical and with the multi million dollar might of the Indian chess federation backing him he's got to be the slight favourite, although from listening to his csquared show on YouTube it's clear fabiano is still very hungry for that world title and feels like this is the best opportunity in his career to push for it.

I voted for Carlsen. But among others, I think it is legitimate to ask why Nakamura is riding so high. I've always wanted to see a Carlsen-Nakamura match, not that it will ever happen (except maybe in Chess960 or whatever it is called these days).

I voted for Gukesh as he won the 2024 Candidates and World Championship match vs. Ding Liren. But, I'm wondering, what are the time limits for classical chess? Hasn't Carlsen discounted himself?

Angus French wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 20, 2025 9:45 pm

But, I'm wondering, what are the time limits for classical chess?

The ECF places the boundary at one hour, between 10 and 60 minutes on the clock being Rapid and Blitz being 10 or less. But FIDE doesn't really have any form of all comer rated chess between one and two hours as anything faster than 90 30 or equivalent has restrictions placed on whether it can be rated in its entirety.

Angus French wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 20, 2025 9:45 pm

I voted for Gukesh as he won the 2024 Candidates and World Championship match vs. Ding Liren. But, I'm wondering, what are the time limits for classical chess? Hasn't Carlsen discounted himself?

He's not got the motivation for it anymore, at least that's what his story seems to be, but he's obviously still extremely strong and maybe after a few years of marriage and semi retirement he might get that urge to be competitive again and have another crack at the championship

What's the point in asking this. Elo ratings were adopted over 50 years ago and tell you who has the highest rating. This question is unnecessary.

Angus French wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 20, 2025 9:45 pm

Hasn't Carlsen discounted himself?

He is still playing some classical chess, notably the most recent round of the Bundesliga. He is clearly still a very strong player but I think his openings have calcified a bit.

Joey Stewart wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 20, 2025 10:30 pm

He's not got the motivation for it anymore, at least that's what his story seems to be, but he's obviously still extremely strong and maybe after a few years of marriage and semi retirement he might get that urge to be competitive again and have another crack at the championship

That is what Magnus says and he does have a history of being honest. I wonder about the economics being an additional factor though. The classical world championship comes with a large prize but also a necessity to employ a large team with access to expensive hardware.

In Gukesh's case he had an enormous team. I suppose with his sponsorship and the change in profile becoming World Champion still a very sound financial decision to prioritise the championship. But I guess the maths are different for Magnus.

I am surprised to see Gukesh with more votes than Fabi at an early stage. I included him more out of respect for his title than thinking he would win.

MJMcCready wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 21, 2025 3:37 am

What's the point in asking this. Elo ratings were adopted over 50 years ago and tell you who has the highest rating. This question is unnecessary.

No. An Elo rating tells you how well a player has performed historically. It takes time to adjust to a change in current performance. Suppose Carslen has declined and is now "only" playing at 2800 strength. On average, he'd lose 0.4 points per game he played, so it would take over 75 games before his rating dropped to that level, and slightly fewer games before he lost his No. 1 ranking, assuming no change in other players' performance.

Yes but as I am sure you know Magnus has been ranked nu er one for many years already. There's nothing contentious about saying Magnus is the best. I don't think you should be trying to illicit opinion and argumentation, just stick to the facts, they are sufficient.

I think Ian's point is a valid one: the rating system tells you about historic strengths, not current strengths. In my opinion FIDE have weakened the status of being world champion by reducing the length of the matches and introducing rapid and blitz tiebreaks. It would be interesting to see a match between Gukesh and Magnus outside the FIDE framework, but I guess that FIDE wouldn't like that. I can see why Magnus got fed up with defending his title under FIDE's rules every 2 years (rather than the historically more usual 3 years).

Yes it seems to be the consensus that every 3 years is about right.

I also think, though, that Carlsen's "downer" regarding classical chess has a bit more to it than that.

Whilst only one tournament this may give some clues as to who is in the best form, if not the best player:

Introducing the Final Lineup for Norway Chess 2025

Magnus Carlsen - World No. 1
Fabiano Caruana - World No. 2
Hikaru Nakamura - World No. 3
Arjun Erigaisi - World No. 4
Gukesh D - World No. 5
Wei Yi - World No. 9

MJMcCready wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 21, 2025 3:37 am

What's the point in asking this. Elo ratings were adopted over 50 years ago and tell you who has the highest rating. This question is unnecessary.

Garry Kasparov's current rating is 2812.

Yes, which of course is lower than Carlsen's