Timeline for 2800 ratings

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:20 pm

I've been pointed to this listing which already exists (I think it is active players only):

http://ratings.fide.com/topfed.phtml

I missed out Serbia (54 GMs) and Israel (40 GMs) from the major chess powers.

Jack, where would the logical point be to draw the percentage calculation you did above?

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Roger de Coverly » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:28 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:I've been pointed to this listing which already exists (I think it is active players only):

http://ratings.fide.com/topfed.phtml
The ratings are ranked by active players, the count is of all titled players. If you put the former USSR back together, the GM total gets even more impressive, but collectively the nations of the former Yugoslavia are in second place for GMs.

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Stewart Reuben » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:37 pm

I wonder how many agree with the following historical observations:
That many of the World Champions have suffered a loss of form following their gaining the title.
That if an absolutely outstanding player comes to the fore there seems to be an inevitability about another arising, if not to supplant him, at least to equal him. This concept was damaged by Fischer when he retired prematurely. Had he met Karpov then the Russian would have risen to even greater heights.

I would be interested in a new calculation of the number of GMs in a federation divided by the number of competitive chessplayers. The problem is knowing the number of serious players, so let's call it the number of FIDE Rated players. My guess is that we are very high on the list, chess is not a popular game here.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:45 pm

Roger de Coverly wrote:
Christopher Kreuzer wrote:I've been pointed to this listing which already exists (I think it is active players only):

http://ratings.fide.com/topfed.phtml
The ratings are ranked by active players, the count is of all titled players. If you put the former USSR back together, the GM total gets even more impressive, but collectively the nations of the former Yugoslavia are in second place for GMs.
Former Yugoslavia is 120 I think. Ex-Soviet total is around 477 (including Russia). There are ex-Soviet emigres that settled in other countries that would now be listed there instead (would that be primarily Germany, Israel, USA and the Netherlands?) I would say after 25 years that the new generations are coming through that are not influenced by the Soviet era, but given recent world events, maybe it takes longer than that for things to move on (sometimes it seems even centuries are not enough for past events to fade harmlessly into history).

The total number of titled players for Germany is also impressive (1236). But is that because some countries have more take up of the FM and CM titles?

EDIT: Corrected from 15 to 25 years!

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:58 pm

Updating this timeline for when the members (past and present) of the 2800 club (those with a FIDE rating of 2800 or above) first achieved that distinction:

*January 1990 - Garry Kasparov (2800)
*July 2001 - Vladimir Kramnik (2802)
*January 2006 - Veselin Topalov (2801)
*April 2006 - Viswanathan Anand (2803)
*November 2009 - Magnus Carlsen (2801)
*November 2010 - Levon Aronian (2801)
*August 2014 - Fabiano Caruana (2801)
*December 2014 - Alexander Grischuk (2810)

The latter not technically confirmed yet, but is presumed from results to date.

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Mick Norris » Wed Jun 03, 2015 10:10 pm

*June 2015 - Hikaru Nakamura (2802)
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Steven DuCharme » Thu Jun 04, 2015 4:28 pm

Never-me
I float like a pawn island and sting like an ignored knight :mrgreen:

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:04 pm

Mick Norris wrote:*June 2015 - Hikaru Nakamura (2802)
Wonder who will be next? Giri (2797 in Feb 2015) and Radjabov (2793 in Nov 2012) have been closest in the past. Probably Giri, but maybe So might get there first? Or maybe Wei Yi? 8) Interestingly, of the nine players on this list, eight of them occupy the current top eight places in the world. The ninth, Kasparov, has an inactive rating of 2812, which may not mean very much.

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Mick Norris » Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:31 pm

Kramnik, Aronian and Grischuk have work to do to get back to 2800

Giri has fallen even further, albeit not as far as Radjabov, maybe So has a better chance and I expect Wei Yi to get there
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Mick Norris » Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:15 pm

Giri now 2797.4 on the live ratings, so a good finish in St Louis would do the job for him (although he was 2802.8 on the live ratings on 15 Feb so mid-tournament may not be the best time to judge) if they rate it for September even though it only finishes on the 1st - if not, he has the World Cup to come

So looks like he is on a decline, possibly temporary, but will be interesting to see where Ding Liren peaks
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Stewart Reuben » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:38 pm

Why the fascination with a mere number? 2800 is statistically no different from 2801 or 2799. I presume this was one of the reasons Sir Richard Clarke went for three figure numbers rather than four.
Of course Kasparov's inactive rating is meaningless for future predictability. He is unlikely to play standardplay chess again.

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:04 pm

Updating (again) this timeline for when the members (past and present) of the 2800 club (those with a FIDE rating of 2800 or above) first achieved that distinction:

*January 1990 - Garry Kasparov (2800)
*July 2001 - Vladimir Kramnik (2802)
*January 2006 - Veselin Topalov (2801)
*April 2006 - Viswanathan Anand (2803)
*November 2009 - Magnus Carlsen (2801)
*November 2010 - Levon Aronian (2801)
*August 2014 - Fabiano Caruana (2801)
*December 2014 - Alexander Grischuk (2810)
*June 2015 - Hikaru Nakamura (2802)

The one to add is potentially Vachier-Lagrave in the August 2016 list (currently at a live rating of 2810.8, though he still has a match to play that will count towards his rating this month: he is 2798 versus Svidler [2759] from 25 - 29 Jul 2016 - it is a four-game match, surely one of the strongest such matches outside the World Championship finals in recent years. What would MVL have to score to keep his rating above 2800? Not that he will be thinking of that, of course!)

For the record, Giri has come very close at times to getting a rating over 2800, and got a live rating over that at one point, but has not yet achieved it on an official monthly rating list.

(Yes, Stewart, it is just a number, but it is interesting how come people get very high and then drop right down again. Players like Morozevich, Radjabov, Grischuk and so on. Anand, Kramnik, Caruana, and Aronian, among others, have shown real staying power. Though to be fair to Grischuk, he stayed up high for a long time. I wonder if Vachier-Lagrave will be able to sustain his play at this high level?)

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Roger de Coverly » Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:07 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote: The one to add is potentially Vachier-Lagrave in the August 2016 list (currently at a live rating of 2810.8, though he still has a match to play that will count towards his rating this month: he is 2798 versus Svidler [2759] from 25 - 29 Jul 2016
FIDE like to give themselves a day or two to calculate and check ratings, so a match finishing on July 29th is more likely to be scheduled for the 1st September published list.

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Stewart Reuben » Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:31 am

I think for such a list to be really interesting you would need additional pieces of information.
When the 2800+ was first published. Only the published ratings are to be considrered. Age at attainment.
How long maintained.
Peak rating.
When a player is the highest rated, his rating is always statistically suspect. The true number may be higher or lower.

FIDE twice rejected my proposal for the new Elite GM title. That was 200 points higher than the GM title. i.e. TPR 2800+ and finishing first or second in the tournament; rating 2700+.

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Mick Norris » Sat Jul 30, 2016 12:25 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Updating (again) this timeline for when the members (past and present) of the 2800 club (those with a FIDE rating of 2800 or above) first achieved that distinction:

*January 1990 - Garry Kasparov (2800)
*July 2001 - Vladimir Kramnik (2802)
*January 2006 - Veselin Topalov (2801)
*April 2006 - Viswanathan Anand (2803)
*November 2009 - Magnus Carlsen (2801)
*November 2010 - Levon Aronian (2801)
*August 2014 - Fabiano Caruana (2801)
*December 2014 - Alexander Grischuk (2810)
*June 2015 - Hikaru Nakamura (2802)

The one to add is potentially Vachier-Lagrave in the August 2016 list (currently at a live rating of 2810.8, though he still has a match to play that will count towards his rating this month: he is 2798 versus Svidler [2759] from 25 - 29 Jul 2016 - it is a four-game match, surely one of the strongest such matches outside the World Championship finals in recent years. What would MVL have to score to keep his rating above 2800? Not that he will be thinking of that, of course!)
MVL finishes the match with a live rating of 2818.8, so his next FIDE rating will presumably either be 2819 if the match is included, or 2811 if not
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

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