Timeline for 2800 ratings

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Mick Norris
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Mick Norris » Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:33 pm

August 2016 MVL 2819

Incredible to jump in the list at such a high level
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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:37 pm

Updating (again) this timeline for when the members (past and present) of the 2800 club (those with a FIDE rating of 2800 or above) first achieved that distinction:

*January 1990 - Garry Kasparov (2800) aged 26 (peak - 2856; March 2000)
*July 2001 - Vladimir Kramnik (2802) aged 26 (peak - 2812; June 2016)
*January 2006 - Veselin Topalov (2801) aged 30 (peak - 2816; July 2015)
*April 2006 - Viswanathan Anand (2803) aged 36 (peak - 2817; March 2011)
*November 2009 - Magnus Carlsen (2801) aged 18 (peak - 2882; May 2014)
*November 2010 - Levon Aronian (2801) aged 28 (peak - 2830; March 2014)
*August 2014 - Fabiano Caruana (2801) aged 22 (peak - 2844; October 2014)
*December 2014 - Alexander Grischuk (2810) aged 31 (peak - 2810; December 2014)
*June 2015 - Hikaru Nakamura (2802) aged 27 (peak - 2814; July 2015)
*August 2016 - Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (2819) aged 25 (peak - 2819; August 2016)

Will add ages and peak ratings. How long maintained is more difficult, does anyone want to do that (it would be number of months with a rating of 2800 or more, even if the rating drops below 2800, and for the earlier rating lists the periods are longer than one month)?

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Stewart Reuben » Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:19 am

So Magnus Carlsen is much the youngest to reach 2800. He also has the highest-ever rating.
Kasparov of course retired. His rating will not precisely correlate with the younger players.
Sergey Karjakin has yet to reach 2800, although he was much the youngest GM.

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Mick Norris » Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:52 am

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Updating (again) this timeline for when the members (past and present) of the 2800 club (those with a FIDE rating of 2800 or above) first achieved that distinction:

*January 1990 - Garry Kasparov (2800) aged 26 (peak - 2856; March 2000)
*July 2001 - Vladimir Kramnik (2802) aged 26 (peak - 2812; June 2016)
*January 2006 - Veselin Topalov (2801) aged 30 (peak - 2816; July 2015)
*April 2006 - Viswanathan Anand (2803) aged 36 (peak - 2817; March 2011)
*November 2009 - Magnus Carlsen (2801) aged 18 (peak - 2882; May 2014)
*November 2010 - Levon Aronian (2801) aged 28 (peak - 2830; March 2014)
*August 2014 - Fabiano Caruana (2801) aged 22 (peak - 2844; October 2014)
*December 2014 - Alexander Grischuk (2810) aged 31 (peak - 2810; December 2014)
*June 2015 - Hikaru Nakamura (2802) aged 27 (peak - 2814; July 2015)
*August 2016 - Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (2819) aged 25 (peak - 2819; August 2016)
Thanks Chris, age of those peak ratings is interesting (to those of us now older and nowhere near our peak!)
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:48 pm

How old will So be when he joins this list? Any bets on who might be next?

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Tim Harding » Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:12 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:How old will So be when he joins this list? Any bets on who might be next?
Barring a disaster in the last three rounds in London, Wesley So (born October 1993) will be 23 when he joins the 2800 club on a published list in January.

The others nearest to 2800 with their December ratings (but ignoring those in obvious decline/plateau or who have already been above 2800) are:

Harikrishna, P 2770 (born 1986)
Mamedyarov, S 2768 (born 1985)
Nepomniachtchi, I 2767 (born 1990)
Ding, Liren 2757 (born 1992)

I am not a betting man but if I were, then maybe I would bet on Nepo' as the next to breach 2800 with Ding as second favourite.

If they don't make it, you would have to look at younger players who are already over 2650: I would think those who could come close are Wei Yi 2707 (born 1999), Duda 2684 (born 1999) or Xiong (2666, born 2000, world junior champ and US championship contender at age 15).
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Mick Norris » Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:20 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:How old will So be when he joins this list? Any bets on who might be next?
Giri has been there mid tournament, and I reckon he has a chance to recover his rating once he gets his drawing tendency sorted

If Kajakin uses the knowledge he gained in preparing for the WC match, then he should be able to do it too
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by John McKenna » Fri Dec 16, 2016 12:00 am

Hi Mick, "... once... " (see above).

I have reservations about Anish.

He got to the top too easily in my estimation, and is not hungry enough to challenge Magnus for his title.

I fear he will cruise along in his comfort zone and always be there, or there abouts, due to his fine innate ability not to lose, and to take advantage when his peers have an off day.

Motivation to be the best is the thing. What might incentivise him to really have a go I just don't know.

Edit - if Giri played a match with Carlsen for the title he might do as well as Karjakin did, or even better. I just don't see him getting to be the challenger.
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Tim Harding » Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:46 pm

John McKenna wrote:I have reservations about Anish. ... if Giri played a match with Carlsen for the title he might do as well as Karjakin did, or even better. I just don't see him getting to be the challenger.
Agreed about not seeing him winning a Candidates.

Alternatively if you plonked him down in the London FIDE Open, or Gibraltar, or Reykjavik, after a couple of easy rounds at the start would he:

a) draw all the rest of his games?
b) suffer a nasty loss or two like Vishy did?
c) recover the winning habit and start to win games when he's back in an elite round-robin?

I suspect c.
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by John McKenna » Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:22 am

I can't argue with that, Tim.

Sometimes one has to go back to go forward.
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Mick Norris » Sun Dec 18, 2016 5:29 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Updating (again) this timeline for when the members (past and present) of the 2800 club (those with a FIDE rating of 2800 or above) first achieved that distinction:

*January 1990 - Garry Kasparov (2800) aged 26 (peak - 2856; March 2000)
*July 2001 - Vladimir Kramnik (2802) aged 26 (peak - 2812; June 2016)
*January 2006 - Veselin Topalov (2801) aged 30 (peak - 2816; July 2015)
*April 2006 - Viswanathan Anand (2803) aged 36 (peak - 2817; March 2011)
*November 2009 - Magnus Carlsen (2801) aged 18 (peak - 2882; May 2014)
*November 2010 - Levon Aronian (2801) aged 28 (peak - 2830; March 2014)
*August 2014 - Fabiano Caruana (2801) aged 22 (peak - 2844; October 2014)
*December 2014 - Alexander Grischuk (2810) aged 31 (peak - 2810; December 2014)
*June 2015 - Hikaru Nakamura (2802) aged 27 (peak - 2814; July 2015)
*August 2016 - Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (2819) aged 25 (peak - 2819; August 2016)

Will add ages and peak ratings. How long maintained is more difficult, does anyone want to do that (it would be number of months with a rating of 2800 or more, even if the rating drops below 2800, and for the earlier rating lists the periods are longer than one month)?
You can now add January 2017 - Wesley So (2808) age 23 - with that also being his peak rating (and also his peak live rating too, the 11th highest of all time, above Giri)
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon May 15, 2017 9:19 pm

Mick Norris wrote:Shak becomes the 13th player to have a live rating of 2800+ @ 2801.1 after today's win
I count 11 on the list above. That is published ratings, not live ratings. Mamedyarov has achieved a live rating over 2800. Now we have to wait and see if he can achieve a published rating over 2800. Tim did list Mamedyarov among four, but put two others as his first and second favourites. How many would have bet on Mamedyarov?

Is there someone missing from this list, someone who got a live rating over 2800 but not a published rating over 2800?

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Mick Norris » Mon May 15, 2017 9:21 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
Mick Norris wrote:Shak becomes the 13th player to have a live rating of 2800+ @ 2801.1 after today's win
I count 11 on the list above. That is published ratings, not live ratings. Mamedyarov has achieved a live rating over 2800. Now we have to wait and see if he can achieve a published rating over 2800. Tim did list Mamedyarov among four, but put two others as his first and second favourites. How many would have bet on Mamedyarov?

Is there someone missing from this list, someone who got a live rating over 2800 but not a published rating over 2800?
Giri hit 2802.8 on 15 Feb 2015, but was back below 2800 by month end
Last edited by Mick Norris on Mon May 15, 2017 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon May 15, 2017 9:23 pm

Thanks, I thought it was Giri, but couldn't find where and when he got that live rating over 2800. It will probably be in a thread around here somewhere...

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Re: Timeline for 2800 ratings

Post by Mick Norris » Mon May 15, 2017 9:24 pm

live ratings has a list

Grischuk's highest was achieved on the same date
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