English Chess Forum

Who do you think would put up the best challenge to Magnus Carlsen? This could be for the next cycle or perhaps in the next 10 years.

If we can go long then the Chinese GM prodigy Wei Yi should be ready in say five years time?

I think the Candidates will be won by Kramnik or Aronian, both of whom could have a close match v Carlsen

Possibly Caruana, Karjakin or even Nakamura will qualify in future

If Carlsen uses the experience from this time, and keeps improving, then it may not matter

Mick Norris wrote:I think the Candidates will be won by Kramnik or Aronian, both of whom could have a close match v Carlsen

Possibly Caruana, Karjakin or even Nakamura will qualify in future

Someone in the old soviet school certainly thinks Karjakin has the right credentials. If only for his name starting with a 'K'.
Of the 5 you have named only Kramnik has great match experience. Is this likely to be a factor?

The person to beat Carlsen has not yet been born. Soon though

There is IMO absolutely no chance Carlsen will be WC *that* long - however invincible he may appear right now.

If not Wei Yi, then somebody at present more obscure in that age bracket looks a good bet.......

Absolutely no chance?

Odd thing to say when he is so far ahead of the opposition. Oh well, I guess we will see.

Well yes, but even Gazza could "only" manage 15 years........

One thing it seemed to me Anand didn't do - with the exception of the f3 Nimzo played in the ninth game - is test Carlsen with the White pieces. In particular, he didn't have anything against Carlsen's Berlin. I think this is an area where a challenger could improve (and possibly make the new World Champion look less invincible).

How about Aravindh Chithambaram? The 14-year old who won the Chennai Open with a performance of 2728 (current rating 2335)?

http://en.chessbase.com/post/indian-pro ... ennai-open

The challenger will have to come from the generation below his in around 10 years time. At present, no one else will stand a chance.

Quite probably Carlsen will win the next World Championship match. He will also have gained a vast amount of experience from the previous cycle.
The most likely challenger for 2015 would seem to be Nakamura. This is not a player I would have tipped a few months ago, but his play has improved vastly.He has just reached number three in the Live Chess Rankings, and he did this in the most convincing way possible, beating Kramnik in a one-to-one encounter. After that, who knows?
Look closely of players who have beaten Carlsen in the last few years, and who are of the same age of Carlsen, or younger (there are, surprisingly, quite a few), and the decide which player is going to improve the fastest. Or, failing that, someone much younger. I doubt whether it will be “someone not yet born”.

(Before I posted this off, I had the chance to note that in the following round, Aronian beat Nakamura, and then beat Li Chao. Confusing? Not really – in fact it helps clarify things a lot. Aronian is at least 15 Eo points clear of Nakamura, Topalov, Kramnik and the rest, and he is very close o being 60 points below Carlsen. If Aronian keeps his run of good form, he would still have realistic chances, although less than 50%, of becoming a future World Champion. But he has to do things quickly. Time is startng to run out to make a big break.)

Nakamura is steadily improving (both on and off the board) and is on the cusp of becoming world #3 on merit - but the fact remains that his personal score against Carlsen is *awful*, and that suggests he has a mental block playing him. That will have to change if any WC match between them is to be even competitive.

Colin S Crouch wrote: The most likely challenger for 2015 would seem to be Nakamura.

Subject as always to FIDE changing everything, the next Candidates tournament and Championship match are due next year, 2014. This won't include Nakamura unless he is brought in as a wild card if one or more of the existing eight pull out.

Beyond that, the next Candidates and World Championship are scheduled for 2016.

Ray Sayers >Oh well, I guess we will see.<

I do hope you're right.