What was the cause of my severe drop?

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soheil_hooshdaran
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What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by soheil_hooshdaran » Sat May 16, 2015 4:48 pm

Hello.
I was playing in a rated event in northern Iran. I earned 2.5 out of 3 points, but lost the 4th game in a drawn Rook ending (round 2 and round 3 opponents had250 rating points above my 1845 FIDE rating, and the 4th had about 200 rating points above me) and lost rounds 6 to 7 to people roughly in 1570-1670 level while winning an unrated player in round 8 and leaving that night not quitting the 9-round tournament with 3.5 points and a loss of about 30 rating points.

Now the question is, what is the real reason for such a big loss? How can I figure that out before entering another tournament? (Iran championship circle starts 3 months from now.)

Thanks for you attention

Brian Towers
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by Brian Towers » Sat May 16, 2015 8:56 pm

Soheil, if your rating loss was a loss in FIDE rating in a FIDE rated event then section 8, The working of the FIDE Rating System, of the FIDE Rating Regulations effective from 1 July 2014 should explain the calculations used in calculating your rating change.

If your rating loss was a loss in national federation rating then you are clearly asking in the wrong forum.
Ah, but I was so much older then. I'm younger than that now.

soheil_hooshdaran
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by soheil_hooshdaran » Sun May 17, 2015 5:54 am

My question is not about the calculation. about the reason I lost 4 rounds in a row to very low-rated players.

Brian Towers
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by Brian Towers » Sun May 17, 2015 7:26 am

soheil_hooshdaran wrote:My question is not about the calculation. about the reason I lost 4 rounds in a row to very low-rated players.
According to leading expertsyou need to give up wheatgerm, organic honey and tiger's milk and instead eat more deep fat, steak, cream pies and hot fudge.
Ah, but I was so much older then. I'm younger than that now.

Barry Sandercock
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by Barry Sandercock » Sun May 17, 2015 11:27 am

Soheil Hooshdaran wrote:
My question is not about the calculation.about the reason I lost 4 rounds in a row to very low-rated players.
This is a very difficult question to answer. But two things I can think of: (1) You may have been over confident as they had low grades and over reached in positions which should have been draws. (2) Low rated players often play a lot better than they are supposed to.

soheil_hooshdaran
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by soheil_hooshdaran » Sun May 17, 2015 4:19 pm

The may-be list goes on:
maybe fatigue, maybe mistakes/blunders, maybe insufficient knowledge, maybe lack of sleep (as GM Ghaem-maghami suggested that I need to sleep more), maybe overconfidence, maybe stress, ....
But how can I make sure what is the real cause?

Barry Sandercock
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by Barry Sandercock » Sun May 17, 2015 4:49 pm

You can't !

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sun May 17, 2015 6:36 pm

Yep, its trial and error really. Try various things and see if they improve your results! :)
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

Stewart Reuben
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by Stewart Reuben » Sun May 17, 2015 6:44 pm

In all sports people enter into a streak, This may either be a winning streak, probably caused by growing confidence; or a losing streak caused by losing confidence.
The better the player is, the less likely that he will be adversely affected. e.g. Magnus Carlsen seldom goes badly wrong.
Many years ago John Nunn consulted me; he was not yet a GM. He had the distressing habit of losing in the last round, thus costing himself a good prize. I advised him to take a couple of draws in such situations to regain his confidence. Shortly afterwards he won 10 tournaments in a row.
It is very common for players to take a quick draw after a bad loss.

Arshad Ali
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by Arshad Ali » Mon May 18, 2015 3:50 pm

It could just be coincidence (i.e., "stuff happens") or -- more plausibly -- it could be the cascade of losses that results when a player loses a game, which then affects his psychological equilibrium. In general stronger players tend not to let past results -- wins or losses -- affect the game they're currently playing. If they sense they're "not in peak form," they may settle for one or more draws while they recover their composure, confidence, and stamina.

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Joey Stewart
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by Joey Stewart » Fri May 22, 2015 7:51 pm

I would say the most likely reason is because most modern fide ratings are totally inaccurate measures of player strength and your opponents were, in fact, much better then their low ratings lead you to believe.
Lose one queen and it is a disaster, Lose 1000 queens and it is just a statistic.

soheil_hooshdaran
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by soheil_hooshdaran » Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:46 pm

Barry Sandercock wrote:Soheil Hooshdaran wrote:
My question is not about the calculation.about the reason I lost 4 rounds in a row to very low-rated players.
This is a very difficult question to answer. But two things I can think of: (1) You may have been over confident as they had low grades and over reached in positions which should have been draws. (2) Low rated players often play a lot better than they are supposed to.
What do you mean by 'over reached'?

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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:56 pm

soheil_hooshdaran wrote:
Barry Sandercock wrote:Soheil Hooshdaran wrote:
My question is not about the calculation.about the reason I lost 4 rounds in a row to very low-rated players.
This is a very difficult question to answer. But two things I can think of: (1) You may have been over confident as they had low grades and over reached in positions which should have been draws. (2) Low rated players often play a lot better than they are supposed to.
What do you mean by 'over reached'?
Trying too hard for a win in a drawn position, and ending up turning the game into a loss. (The metaphor relates to trying to acquire something that's just out of your reach, and falling off whatever you were standing on as you do so.)

soheil_hooshdaran
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by soheil_hooshdaran » Sat Nov 07, 2015 6:43 pm

But really my game has got very bad recently. I am now 1736, after just 6 month when I was 1845!

I even thought I was down when I was not!

MJMcCready
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Re: What was the cause of my severe drop?

Post by MJMcCready » Sat Nov 07, 2015 7:13 pm

I wouldn't worry about it, there are only three possible results in a game of chess so you will go through ups and downs like everyone has. You do, however, need to move away from the he's a 1700 player mentality. Grades only give a general indication of strength and do not tell you how a person will play on that day. I saw a GM rated 2442 be not beaten but absolutely demolished by one of my friends, rated 1870 at the time. Another rated 2110 lost to a 7 year old rated 1440. You probably under-estimated your opponents and lowered your game. They raised theirs, hence you lost. 4 games is nothing to worry about.

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