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World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:14 am
by Joshua Gibbs
I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 8:55 am
by Graham Borrowdale
Joshua Gibbs wrote:I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
That is a very bold prediction, although Kramnik's victory over Kasparov showed us that the unexpected can sometimes happen, even in matches. For my money, Carlsen will win, by maybe 6-4.

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 9:04 am
by Roger de Coverly
Graham Borrowdale wrote: For my money, Carlsen will win, by maybe 6-4.
It's 12 games, so a "plus 2" win is 6½-4½. They wouldn't play the twelfth game avoiding disputes about whether it should be rated.

I agree also that Carlsen is that little bit stronger.

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 12:36 pm
by Brian Towers
Roger de Coverly wrote:It's 12 games, so a "plus 2" win is 6½-4½. They wouldn't play the twelfth game avoiding disputes about whether it should be rated.
Wrong, Roger.

It might end 6½-4½. It might also end 7-5 having been 6-5 with one to play.
However you are right to point out that it can't end 6-4.

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 12:57 pm
by Graham Borrowdale
Sorry, my mistake, I was assuming that Carlsen would retain the title at 6-4, but he needs to win the match to retain the title. In which case I think 7-4 is a more likely result.

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 1:28 pm
by Nick Burrows
Joshua Gibbs wrote:I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
What makes you think Karjakin will beat a better player whom he has a poor record against?

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 1:38 pm
by MartinCarpenter
There's no great reason to expect it, but he does clearly have enormous reserves of mental strength (as per that K/O tournament he won!). That matters an awful lot for these things, so it could be tougher than you'd think.

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 2:50 pm
by Joshua Gibbs
Nick Burrows wrote:
Joshua Gibbs wrote:I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
What makes you think Karjakin will beat a better player whom he has a poor record against?
just basically the fact that he won the candidates and he has stamina...

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:36 pm
by Nick Burrows
Joshua Gibbs wrote:
Nick Burrows wrote:
Joshua Gibbs wrote:I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
What makes you think Karjakin will beat a better player whom he has a poor record against?
just basically the fact that he won the candidates and he has stamina...
Carlsen has stamina too, so I wouldn't say it is an advantage. Karjakin has beaten him just once in 20 games and his style is too similar to cause many problems imo.

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:36 pm
by JustinHorton
Magnus 7/1 on with Marathon Bet, whoever they may be

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:41 pm
by Kevin O'Rourke
when is game 1 starting?

Agreed draws are not permitted before move 30 with the exception of 3 fold rep. Is this a normal rule?

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:42 pm
by NickFaulks
JustinHorton wrote:Magnus 7/1 on with Marathon Bet, whoever they may be
They're the market leaders. Russian, but I've found them to be fine.

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:52 pm
by Roger de Coverly
Kevin O'Rourke wrote: Agreed draws are not permitted before move 30 with the exception of 3 fold rep. Is this a normal rule?
That rule or similar has been around for some years imposed on some events. It was originally the Bulgarians who promoted it, so it's sometimes described as Sofia rules.

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:53 pm
by JustinHorton
NickFaulks wrote:
JustinHorton wrote:Magnus 7/1 on with Marathon Bet, whoever they may be
They're the market leaders. Russian, but I've found them to be fine.
I shall not be testing that proposition on those odds

Re: World Championship Predictions

Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:56 pm
by NickFaulks
JustinHorton wrote: I shall not be testing that proposition on those odds
The odds have clearly been driven down to that level. I think it's madness, took a bit the other way.