1/7JustinHorton wrote:Magnus 7/1 on with Marathon Bet, whoever they may be

1/7JustinHorton wrote:Magnus 7/1 on with Marathon Bet, whoever they may be
the 11thKevin O'Rourke wrote:when is game 1 starting?
incorrectly i believe? Sofia rules is that draw offers should be made through the arbiter?Roger de Coverly wrote:
That rule or similar has been around for some years imposed on some events. It was originally the Bulgarians who promoted it, so it's sometimes described as Sofia rules.
Nick Burrows wrote:What makes you think Karjakin will beat a better player whom he has a poor record against?Joshua Gibbs wrote:I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
It is clearly possible, but what are the reasons for the assertion?John Upham wrote:Nick Burrows wrote:What makes you think Karjakin will beat a better player whom he has a poor record against?Joshua Gibbs wrote:I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
I used the same thinking to predict the outcome of a match in 1972.
Not sure how you can have such a rule in a match. What is the penalty? Having to play the game again?Roger de Coverly wrote:That rule or similar has been around for some years imposed on some events. It was originally the Bulgarians who promoted it, so it's sometimes described as Sofia rules.Kevin O'Rourke wrote: Agreed draws are not permitted before move 30 with the exception of 3 fold rep. Is this a normal rule?
Is it madness? What are the mathematical odds based on rating? It's still a 14% return in 3 weeksNickFaulks wrote:The odds have clearly been driven down to that level. I think it's madness, took a bit the other way.JustinHorton wrote: I shall not be testing that proposition on those odds
I got as far as that Jack! My maths degree doesn't instinctively get me much further than that these days though, especially not in the pub...IM Jack Rudd wrote:Carlsen has a rating advantage of 81 points, which is an expected score of 0.61 per game. Not sure what the underlying distribution of results would be, though.
There could be a condition in the players' contracts saying something like " ... if you don't play 10 totally pointless moves in a completely drawn position to reach move 30, you'll be fined 10% (or whatever) of the prize fund."Richard Bates wrote:Not sure how you can have such a rule in a match. What is the penalty? Having to play the game again?Roger de Coverly wrote:That rule or similar has been around for some years imposed on some events. It was originally the Bulgarians who promoted it, so it's sometimes described as Sofia rules.Kevin O'Rourke wrote: Agreed draws are not permitted before move 30 with the exception of 3 fold rep. Is this a normal rule?
I don't think you can get much further with any precision. The trouble is that the rating difference between two players predicts their results against twelve of their peers much better than twelve games between each other.Richard Bates wrote: I got as far as that Jack!