World Championship Predictions

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Joshua Gibbs
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Joshua Gibbs » Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:58 pm

JustinHorton wrote:Magnus 7/1 on with Marathon Bet, whoever they may be
1/7 :)
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Joshua Gibbs
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Joshua Gibbs » Thu Oct 27, 2016 5:02 pm

Kevin O'Rourke wrote:when is game 1 starting?
the 11th
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Joshua Gibbs
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Joshua Gibbs » Thu Oct 27, 2016 5:27 pm

Roger de Coverly wrote:
That rule or similar has been around for some years imposed on some events. It was originally the Bulgarians who promoted it, so it's sometimes described as Sofia rules.
incorrectly i believe? Sofia rules is that draw offers should be made through the arbiter?

http://rules.chessdom.com/sofia-rule
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John Upham
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by John Upham » Thu Oct 27, 2016 6:13 pm

Nick Burrows wrote:
Joshua Gibbs wrote:I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
What makes you think Karjakin will beat a better player whom he has a poor record against?

I used the same thinking to predict the outcome of a match in 1972.
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Nick Burrows
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Nick Burrows » Thu Oct 27, 2016 6:29 pm

John Upham wrote:
Nick Burrows wrote:
Joshua Gibbs wrote:I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
What makes you think Karjakin will beat a better player whom he has a poor record against?

I used the same thinking to predict the outcome of a match in 1972.
It is clearly possible, but what are the reasons for the assertion?

Richard Bates
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Richard Bates » Thu Oct 27, 2016 6:48 pm

Roger de Coverly wrote:
Kevin O'Rourke wrote: Agreed draws are not permitted before move 30 with the exception of 3 fold rep. Is this a normal rule?
That rule or similar has been around for some years imposed on some events. It was originally the Bulgarians who promoted it, so it's sometimes described as Sofia rules.
Not sure how you can have such a rule in a match. What is the penalty? Having to play the game again?

Richard Bates
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Richard Bates » Thu Oct 27, 2016 6:52 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
JustinHorton wrote: I shall not be testing that proposition on those odds
The odds have clearly been driven down to that level. I think it's madness, took a bit the other way.
Is it madness? What are the mathematical odds based on rating? It's still a 14% return in 3 weeks

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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:00 pm

Carlsen has a rating advantage of 81 points, which is an expected score of 0.61 per game. Not sure what the underlying distribution of results would be, though.

Richard Bates
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Richard Bates » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:03 pm

IM Jack Rudd wrote:Carlsen has a rating advantage of 81 points, which is an expected score of 0.61 per game. Not sure what the underlying distribution of results would be, though.
I got as far as that Jack! My maths degree doesn't instinctively get me much further than that these days though, especially not in the pub... :(

Richard Bates
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Richard Bates » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:07 pm

I do wonder if Magnus might really want set down a marker in this match. He hasn't yet had a truly dominant performance in a World Championship match and I'm sure he will want to change that. He should want future opponents to enter matches with trepidation and I don't really think he's got that at the moment.

Ian Thompson
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Ian Thompson » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:14 pm

Richard Bates wrote:
Roger de Coverly wrote:
Kevin O'Rourke wrote: Agreed draws are not permitted before move 30 with the exception of 3 fold rep. Is this a normal rule?
That rule or similar has been around for some years imposed on some events. It was originally the Bulgarians who promoted it, so it's sometimes described as Sofia rules.
Not sure how you can have such a rule in a match. What is the penalty? Having to play the game again?
There could be a condition in the players' contracts saying something like " ... if you don't play 10 totally pointless moves in a completely drawn position to reach move 30, you'll be fined 10% (or whatever) of the prize fund."

Nick Grey
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Nick Grey » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:48 pm

I think Magnus will win 7-1.
Not want to mess up his rating & make comments. Having got another offer on his analysis.
Clinton to win the election & say I know about chess in the USA & also make arrangements to kick out any officials on their 'list'.
The 1 point against on a game which will be disturbed by an earthquake.
Magnus to announce he is going to take a break from chess to pursue football coaching with Barcelona.

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Paolo Casaschi
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Paolo Casaschi » Thu Oct 27, 2016 9:34 pm

My prediction is for a lot of draws and for whoever wins a game first will also win the match by +1, or +2 after a desperado last game.
It could go either way, Magnus objectively favorite but I hope for a Karjakin in his best form.

NickFaulks
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by NickFaulks » Thu Oct 27, 2016 9:42 pm

Richard Bates wrote: I got as far as that Jack!
I don't think you can get much further with any precision. The trouble is that the rating difference between two players predicts their results against twelve of their peers much better than twelve games between each other.

Even more seriously, matches are different and have dynamics of their own. The result of each game is not based on quite the same skills which gained them their FIDE ratings.

Very crudely, I would say that if Karjakin gains the first win he has an even chance of winning the match. I give him a one in three chance of doing that, so was happy to back him at 5/1 ( actually a bit better ).

Kevin O'Rourke
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Kevin O'Rourke » Fri Oct 28, 2016 11:47 am

i am busy on friday 11th but i will hopefully watch it on youtube after the event and just not know the score. re-live

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