World Championship Predictions

[Joshua Gibbs]

Magnus 7/1 on with Marathon Bet, whoever they may be

1/7

[Joshua Gibbs]

when is game 1 starting?

the 11th

[Joshua Gibbs]

That rule or similar has been around for some years imposed on some events. It was originally the Bulgarians who promoted it, so it's sometimes described as Sofia rules.

incorrectly i believe? Sofia rules is that draw offers should be made through the arbiter?

http://rules.chessdom.com/sofia-rule

[John Upham]

I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?

What makes you think Karjakin will beat a better player whom he has a poor record against?

I used the same thinking to predict the outcome of a match in 1972.

[Nick Burrows]

I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?

What makes you think Karjakin will beat a better player whom he has a poor record against?

I used the same thinking to predict the outcome of a match in 1972.

It is clearly possible, but what are the reasons for the assertion?

[Richard Bates]

Agreed draws are not permitted before move 30 with the exception of 3 fold rep. Is this a normal rule?

That rule or similar has been around for some years imposed on some events. It was originally the Bulgarians who promoted it, so it's sometimes described as Sofia rules.

Not sure how you can have such a rule in a match. What is the penalty? Having to play the game again?

[Richard Bates]

I shall not be testing that proposition on those odds

The odds have clearly been driven down to that level. I think it's madness, took a bit the other way.

Is it madness? What are the mathematical odds based on rating? It's still a 14% return in 3 weeks

[IM Jack Rudd]

Carlsen has a rating advantage of 81 points, which is an expected score of 0.61 per game. Not sure what the underlying distribution of results would be, though.

[Richard Bates]

Carlsen has a rating advantage of 81 points, which is an expected score of 0.61 per game. Not sure what the underlying distribution of results would be, though.

I got as far as that Jack! My maths degree doesn't instinctively get me much further than that these days though, especially not in the pub...

[Richard Bates]

I do wonder if Magnus might really want set down a marker in this match. He hasn't yet had a truly dominant performance in a World Championship match and I'm sure he will want to change that. He should want future opponents to enter matches with trepidation and I don't really think he's got that at the moment.

[Ian Thompson]

Agreed draws are not permitted before move 30 with the exception of 3 fold rep. Is this a normal rule?

That rule or similar has been around for some years imposed on some events. It was originally the Bulgarians who promoted it, so it's sometimes described as Sofia rules.

Not sure how you can have such a rule in a match. What is the penalty? Having to play the game again?

There could be a condition in the players' contracts saying something like " ... if you don't play 10 totally pointless moves in a completely drawn position to reach move 30, you'll be fined 10% (or whatever) of the prize fund."

[Nick Grey]

I think Magnus will win 7-1.
Not want to mess up his rating & make comments. Having got another offer on his analysis.
Clinton to win the election & say I know about chess in the USA & also make arrangements to kick out any officials on their 'list'.
The 1 point against on a game which will be disturbed by an earthquake.
Magnus to announce he is going to take a break from chess to pursue football coaching with Barcelona.

[Paolo Casaschi]

My prediction is for a lot of draws and for whoever wins a game first will also win the match by +1, or +2 after a desperado last game.
It could go either way, Magnus objectively favorite but I hope for a Karjakin in his best form.

[NickFaulks]

I got as far as that Jack!

I don't think you can get much further with any precision. The trouble is that the rating difference between two players predicts their results against twelve of their peers much better than twelve games between each other.

Even more seriously, matches are different and have dynamics of their own. The result of each game is not based on quite the same skills which gained them their FIDE ratings.

Very crudely, I would say that if Karjakin gains the first win he has an even chance of winning the match. I give him a one in three chance of doing that, so was happy to back him at 5/1 ( actually a bit better ).

[Kevin O'Rourke]

i am busy on friday 11th but i will hopefully watch it on youtube after the event and just not know the score. re-live