Universal Rating System

Discuss anything you like about chess related matters in this forum.
Roger de Coverly
Posts: 18101
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 2:51 pm

Re: Universal Rating System

Post by Roger de Coverly » Thu Feb 02, 2017 12:08 am

Ian Thompson wrote:[ That could mean my 2 4NCL games were rated, but my 4 Rilton Cup games weren't.
I have 7 which means both the 4NCL and Telford were included.

What was believed to be suspect data appears not to be replicated on the latest list

http://universalrating.com/player.php?PlayerID=567938

Richard Bates
Posts: 2902
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2008 8:27 pm

Re: Universal Rating System

Post by Richard Bates » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:47 am

Ian Thompson wrote:
David Sedgwick wrote:The February 2017 URS Ratings are now available at http://universalrating.com/ratings.php.
... but may not be very accurate.

They only have 2 games recorded for me in January, when I actually played 6 games. That could mean my 2 4NCL games were rated, but my 4 Rilton Cup games weren't.

However, someone else who played 9 games in the Rilton Cup, and nothing else in January, has 5 games recorded in the URS list.

A third player at the Rilton Cup played 19 games in January in 3 events, but only has 13 games recorded in the URS list, and you can't get to 13 games by omitting whole events from the total because he played 2, 9 and 8 games in the 3 events. In the FIDE list he also has 8 games rated in January that should have been in the December list, but were presumably submitted late for rating. I've no idea how the URS rating system deals with late submission of events.
Don't know about the third one, but maybe it isn't a coincidence that there were 4 Rilton Cup games in December. I have 7 out of 11 games included and 4 of the 11 were from Hastings in December. Anyway, all a pile of rubbish really.

Nick Grey
Posts: 1153
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:16 am

Re: Universal Rating System

Post by Nick Grey » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:18 am

My URS has gone down by a massive 27 - I suspect only 2 games from 4NCL.

My fide down 11 to 1734.

I cannot see any mention of number of games on URS or which ones but can on fide website.

Early days yet but expect URS to give everyone the same type of queries they get on fide ratings.

My ECF down 3 as I expected from 5 of 6 months with no chess.

User avatar
IM Jack Rudd
Posts: 3931
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 1:13 am
Location: Bideford

Re: Universal Rating System

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:51 am

I have a URS of 2213. I have a rapid gap of 26 and a blitz gap of 72. I'm sure everyone will be shocked to learn that those are the second lowest gaps of anybody with the string "Rudd" in their names.

Roger de Coverly
Posts: 18101
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 2:51 pm

Re: Universal Rating System

Post by Roger de Coverly » Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:18 am

Nick Grey wrote: I cannot see any mention of number of games on URS or which ones but can on fide website.
The website doesn't show it, you have to download one of the files. I have been using the .csv one and checking it in a spreadsheet.

On the face of it, the spurious ratings in the December list seem to have vanished.

I don't think anyone is submitting results directly to URS, which means they are piggybacking on FIDE's submission rules. FIDE's rules are that events are submitted in full or not at all, which will cause anomalies if they ignore this feature when processing results from events which straddle an end of month. Taking Hastings as an example, they wouldn't have been able to process the December 2016 results for their December list, which means that their January list is the first to reflect Hastings results. Without knowing in detail how the calculations work, you don't know how much a difference it makes as to whether a game is notionally played in December or January. What I suspect they are doing is re-rating everyone overnight on December 31st.

It's worth reflecting that rating systems aren't purely for trying to predict future results. They also have to be measured against practicality such as being able to trace that correct data has been used and their use in setting seeding orders for Swiss tournaments and their role, both direct and indirect, in awarding of titles,

Ian Thompson
Posts: 2128
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:31 pm
Location: Awbridge, Hampshire

Re: Universal Rating System

Post by Ian Thompson » Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:45 pm

Richard Bates wrote:Don't know about the third one, but maybe it isn't a coincidence that there were 4 Rilton Cup games in December. I have 7 out of 11 games included and 4 of the 11 were from Hastings in December.
That's plausible for all three of my examples, as the third one probably did play 13 games in January. The other games included in his FIDE rating most likely were played in November or December.

If they are retrospectively putting games in the correct calendar month for events that cross over the end of the month, what they don't appear to have done is to recalculate and publish the previous month's ratings to account for the new games. Taking Ivan Sokolov as an example, he scored 4/4 in the 4 Rilton Cup games he played in December (and 2.5/5 for the 5 games in January). His published January URS hasn't changed between what was downloadable a month ago and what is shown online now. Surely 4/4 would have resulted in some increase in his rating when his opposition averaged about 2400.

What this really shows is that they need to publish the method they are using to calculate URSs so that everyone can see that the method is sound and that the calculation is accurate.

Roger de Coverly
Posts: 18101
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 2:51 pm

Re: Universal Rating System

Post by Roger de Coverly » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:00 pm

Ian Thompson wrote: What this really shows is that they need to publish the method they are using to calculate URSs so that everyone can see that the method is sound and that the calculation is accurate.
They need to disclose the data they use as well. I was checking low rated titled players and Gary Kenworthy is still in at 1634.

It's not even that he hasn't been playing.

http://www.chessgraphs.com/?name%5B0%5D ... mit=Submit

Post Reply