Richard Bates wrote: ↑Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:53 pm
Last eight world cups have been won by teams that topped their group in the group stage.
Let's look at those groups, in turn, with their start of tournament Elo ranking:
1986 - Argentina (12), Italy (9), Bulgaria (17), South Korea (44)
1990 - West Germany (2), Yugoslavia (12), Colombia (18), United Arab Emirates (76)
1994 - Brazil (4), Sweden (10), Russia (15), Cameroon (35)
1998 - France (4), Denmark (12), South Africa (50), Saudi Arabia (47)
2002 - Brazil (13), Turkey (28=), Costa Rica (28=), China (41)
2006 - Italy (7), Ghana (55), Czech Republic (5), United States (15)
2010 - Spain (1), Chile (10), Switzerland (26), Honduras (36)
2014 - Germany (3), United States (13), Portugal (6), Ghana (34)
Except for Argentina and Italy, they were all the number 1 seeds in their group, and on those occasions, they were the number 2 seeds. I think you've got the link the wrong way around; these teams were winning their groups because three-quarters of the time they were the strongest team in their group.
2018 - Belgium (8), England (7), Tunisia (49), Panama (48)
If England intended to try to lose this match, then the winning the group stat goes out of the window - they weren't actively trying to achieve that, whereas all of the other 8 teams in previous World Cups (presumably!) were.