It depends which side ends up miscalculating. Escalating in a ratchet fashion on both sides can end up in unexpected places. The big unanswered questions are how far some of the individuals, states and groupings (alliances?) are prepared to go. Someone loses face eventually, but is that enough to prevent or precipitate conflict? Anyway, I see some Ukrainian admiral has defected, so someone somewhere will be trying to calculate what that means.Paul McKeown wrote:I would suggest that what is said is fairly immaterial, except perhaps for what is said frankly and in private. What is done, though, rather than said, is quite different. If Polish military aircraft ended up stationed in Lviv, British tanks in Kiev, French warships were tied up alongside in Odessa, and Ukrainian sovereignty were placed under the protections of NATO's Article 5, then Russia would pay very close attention indeed. Possibly Putin would be deposed for such a visible and embarrassing miscalculation. Of course, this is rather unlikely to happen, as whilst the Polish cavalry would certainly have the balls for it, it seems unlikely that Cameron and Hague would.Matt Mackenzie wrote:Indeed, and recent events illustrate this all too starkly. As if Putin is going to give a flying fart what Cameron and Hague say, FFS
PS. This post and a couple of the preceding ones should really be excised and moved to the appropriate thread. It wouldn't really do to mix up ECF politics with international politics!