Membership question

[Andrew Farthing]

My work on preparing funding proposals for the ECF Finance Council meeting in April has highlighted an interesting trend:

Over the last year, there has been a small (175 [1.5%]) increase in the total number of graded players. Not a massive change, but any growth is encouraging.

The interesting point is that the increase has been unevenly distributed:

- Change in number of graded players who are NOT members of the ECF: + 231 (up 2.6%)
- Change in number of Direct Members: + 26 (up 1.4%)
- Change in number of Basic (incl. Basic Junior) Members, i.e. in Membership Organisation (MO) areas: - 82 (down 8.3%)

I have no axe to grind on the Membership v Game Fee issue, and I don't want to stir up the argument at the in-principle level. I would, however, like to understand what may lie behind the figures and would therefore welcome comments (especially if you're involved in an MO).

Interpreting statistics is a tricky business, so the more information I can gather before attempting to draw conclusions, the better.

[Alex Holowczak]

I can answer part of this.

Warwickshire had a group of the English Chess Challenge last year, with players from U6-11 playing in it. The people who played in that and qualified for the Final at CCF managed to accrue enough games for a grade. So that was almost 40 people who gained a rapidplay grade.

With the BUCA event, you'll probably find a chunk of people who gained a grade who otherwise wouldn't have played enough games. Similarly, you will find quite a few people with grading codes, but no grade yet, because they won't have played enough games - unless they're returning this year. This possibly accounts for 10 people.

So there's 50 that I know of.

[David Sedgwick]

My work on preparing funding proposals for the ECF Finance Council meeting in April has highlighted an interesting trend:

Over the last year, there has been a small (175 [1.5%]) increase in the total number of graded players. Not a massive change, but any growth is encouraging.

The interesting point is that the increase has been unevenly distributed:

- Change in number of graded players who are NOT members of the ECF: + 231 (up 2.6%)
- Change in number of Direct Members: + 26 (up 1.4%)
- Change in number of Basic (incl. Basic Junior) Members, i.e. in Membership Organisation (MO) areas: - 82 (down 8.3%)

I have no axe to grind on the Membership v Game Fee issue, and I don't want to stir up the argument at the in-principle level. I would, however, like to understand what may lie behind the figures and would therefore welcome comments (especially if you're involved in an MO).

Interpreting statistics is a tricky business, so the more information I can gather before attempting to draw conclusions, the better.

I think you would need to look at more than one year's figures before you could draw any meaningful conclusions.

However, didn't some MOs experience an increase in numbers when they were first established, as they were able to run extra "free" competitions (no Game Fee to pay)?

If that's correct, then it's not surprising if, three or four years in, they're now suffering a small decline.

[Roger de Coverly]

Over the last year, there has been a small (175 [1.5%]) increase in the total number of graded players. Not a massive change, but any growth is encouraging.

The interesting point is that the increase has been unevenly distributed:

- Change in number of graded players who are NOT members of the ECF: + 231 (up 2.6%)

Did you check whether there's been a growth of interntional events attracting non-English players? Gibraltar gets bigger every year and the 2009 London Chess Classic was a new event in the calendar. Larger events increase the number of games played and attracting chess tourists increases the number of names on the English grading list.

[Sean Hewitt]

e2e4 have attracted a number of foreign players to our events who are all now the proud owners of an ECF grade.

[Roger de Coverly]

e2e4 have attracted a number of foreign players to our events who are all now the proud owners of an ECF grade.

Depends how you do the filtering of course, but I found 231 players with a non UK FIDE code and a new standard play rating. Here and there, the players may be resident as well - because they have a club code as well.

The list of "new" players includes Kamsky and Korchnoi

[Sean Hewitt]

e2e4 have attracted a number of foreign players to our events who are all now the proud owners of an ECF grade.

Depends how you do the filtering of course, but I found 231 players with a non UK FIDE code and a new standard play rating. Here and there, the players may be resident as well - because they have a club code as well.

The list of "new" players includes Kamsky and Korchnoi

A good filter is where the club code is a country. This gets rid of English resident foreigners, though not those who play exclusively in 4NCL.

[David Shepherd]

It would be interesting to split the increase in graded players between juniors, overseas players and others but it would ideally be over a number of years to see a trend. I believe the numbers playing chess are not well reflected in the number of graded players with a large number of players being ungraded and just playing on the internet - some to a high standard

[Sean Hewitt]

2010/11

10072 graded players.

1452 players have a standard play grade in 2010/11 who did not have one the previous year.

Of these 1452 new players, 250 are foreigners without an English club so 1202 net.

Of the non-foreign players, 285 are juniors, 364 are adults and 553 are unknown.

Meaningless without prior year comparisons of course.

[Sean Hewitt]

1452 players have a standard play grade in 2010/11 who did not have one the previous year. This means that 1277 players who had a grade last year do not have one this year.

Of these 1452 new players, 250 are foreigners without an English club

Of the non-foreign players, 285 are juniors, 364 are adults and 553 are unknown.

Meaningless without prior year comparisons of course.

The same stats for 12 months age were

2009/10

10151 graded players.

1526 players have a standard play grade in 2009/10 who did not have one the previous year.

Of these 1526 new players, 226 are foreigners without an English club so 1300 net.

Of the non-foreign players, 295 are juniors, 422 are adults and 583 are unknown.

Not done the year before yet, but there were 10260 graded players.

[David Shepherd]

The above stats from Sean appear to present a differen picture to the original post with a fall in standard graded players. If overall there is a rise in the number of players graded including rapidplay it may well be because Wey Valley (Surrey) ECF graded junior tournaments which they did not previously do.

The ages of children joining fthe standard play list in 2010 were approximately as follows (including overseas inc Scottish)

Age Number
17 14
16 22
15 26
14 30
13 23
12 35
11 40
10 53
9 36
U9 13

Given the amount of Primary school chess compared to secondary school I found the split slightly surprising.

[Alex Holowczak]

Given the amount of Primary school chess compared to secondary school I found the split slightly surprising.

It's not really surprising. While there is a lot of primary school chess, most players in it are well below the standard required to play in even the weakest adult competitions. Most organisations running primary schools chess (e.g. EPSCA) don't grade their events. So where would the average 9yo get their 9 graded games from?

By contrast, teenagers are likely to be stronger, and could cope with the occasional congress or league match. They might even have a local school junior league, which is graded. That's where their grades will come from.

[Andrew Farthing]

Thanks to everyone who has responded. I need to consider the various points in more detail before I can comment, but it's all helpful!

[Sean Hewitt]

The above stats from Sean appear to present a differen picture to the original post with a fall in standard graded players. If overall there is a rise in the number of players graded including rapidplay it may well be because Wey Valley (Surrey) ECF graded junior tournaments which they did not previously do.

I hadn't considered the rapidplay list but I'll try to do the same analysis for that. Also, a comparison of players who have a RP grade but not a SP grade.