Andrew Farthing wrote:I'm sorry if the Game Fee paper wasn't clear. It's a complicated subject, and the paper as finally presented was an attempt to balance (relative) brevity and accessibility with a wish to show enough of the underlying analysis to give some confidence that the figures weren't just plucked from the air. I may well have got the balance wrong.
The basis of the 9% figure is a comparison between the predicted income due and the actual income figure. I suspect that the confusion has arisen because the latter is essentially in line with the budgeted income figure (despite the fact that the methodology for arriving at the budget figure is - to be frank - nonsense). As a result, it is an understandable mistake to believe that I was comparing the calculation of predicted income due with the budget, but in fact I was comparing it with the actual income.
Underpinning the analysis in the Game Fee paper is a large, fairly complex spreadsheet which lists every event that generates Game Fee and calculates how much should have been paid (based on the nature of the event and the number of ECF members participating). As a result, the paper is founded on precisely the type of case-by-case analysis recommended by Angus, except that it is not based on a sample set of events but a dataset encompassing all events.
I accept that the estimated under-collection quoted in my Management Services paper was wrong. The figure wasn't central to the conclusions of that paper, but it's never satisfactory to include erroneous figures, so I do apologise for this. The simple fact is that I understood the data much less thoroughly at that time. The Game Fee paper represents the results of a lot more work - not just by me, but particularly by Alex Holowczak, with help from Richard Haddrell - which gives me much more confidence that the findings are robust.
Andrew, thanks for responding to this and other comments I made.
Your paper does say "
as may be seen, this predicted amount is some £5,400 (9%) higher than the budget [my emphasis] figure of £59,000". I believed it was the budget figure which was used to derive the shortfall because that's what was stated.
Anyhow, is it correct that the actual income figure is "
in line with the budgeted income figure"? We're looking at figures for the current 2010/11 year (which ends this coming 30 April), aren't we? If so, then the
Budget Report for 2011/12 gives a projected outturn not of £59,000 but of £56,900 (suggesting that the shortfall in game fee payments might, I calculate, be 13.5%). These figures should, of course, be caveated as we've not yet reached the end of the year.
You say "
Underpinning the analysis in the Game Fee paper is a large, fairly complex spreadsheet which lists every event that generates Game Fee and calculates how much should have been paid (based on the nature of the event and the number of ECF members participating). As a result, the paper is founded on precisely the type of case-by-case analysis recommended by Angus, except that it is not based on a sample set of events but a dataset encompassing all events".
And I wonder: why didn't the paper say this - surely it's essential information? Further, if this spreadsheet facility is available, I would have expected the paper to have shown some statistics such as:
a) how many events are liable for a game fee payment;
b) for how many of (a) has a payment been received;
c) for how many of (a) is payment overdue;
d) for how many of (b) is the payment not as expected;
e) what is the distribution of the differences for the events which made up the (d) count?
For cases where there is a significant difference, I would like to know exactly why these have occurred and that something is being done to resolve them.
As it is, the conclusions reached seem pretty vague to me.
It would also be reassuring to know that action was being taken to recover underpayments or non-payments from previous years.