I wanna become a GM

Technical questions regarding Openings, Middlegames, Endings etc.
Nick Grey
Posts: 631
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:16 am

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by Nick Grey » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:49 pm

Soheil listen to Brian. His maths are better than mine.
I still think yours, his and my chance of becoming a GM are very slim.

David Sedgwick
Posts: 2827
Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Croydon

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by David Sedgwick » Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:48 pm

David Sedgwick wrote:
Mick Norris wrote:GCT website
DATES November 29 - December 11, 2017
LOCATION Olympia Conference Center
Further down the page:
* Dates and times subject to change.
I'll check and post further if I can.
I have been told to expect an announcement next week.

When I see it, I'll post the details in a new thread, unless someone beats me to it.

Mick Norris
Posts: 6508
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester
Contact:

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by Mick Norris » Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:32 am

Thanks David Do we know who the 10th player will be or is that part of the announcement?
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

Brian Towers
Posts: 926
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 7:23 pm

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by Brian Towers » Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:03 pm

Nick Grey wrote:Soheil listen to Brian. His maths are better than mine.
I still think yours, his and my chance of becoming a GM are very slim.
Actually, Nick, I think "very slim" is overly generous for all three of us.

That previous statistic of roughly 1 in 200 FIDE rated players doesn't tell the whole story because we have additional information and we can use something called Bayes Law or Bayes Theorem to use this additional information to get a more accurate estimate of the likelihood of Soheil becoming a GM. We could do the same for you or more but because we are much older our chances won't be higher than Soheil's.

Bayes Law looks like this:

P(B¦A) = P(A¦B) x P(B) / P(A).

P(B¦A) means the probability of B happening given that we know A is true. P(A) means the probability of A happening, etc.

Now, we know from his FIDE profile that Soheil is 31 or 32 years old and has a highest ever rating of 1830, so the probability we want to calculate is P(B¦A) which is the probability of Soheil becoming a grandmaster given that he is 31 or 32 years old and has a highest ever rating of 1830.

So, we need to calculate the following:

P(A¦B), which is the probability of having had a highest ever rating of 1830 at the age of 31 or 32 and then going on to become a grandmaster
P(A) = the probability of having had a highest ever rating of 1830 at the age of 31 or 32
P(B) = the probability of becoming a grandmaster.

We've previously estimated the chances of becoming a grandmaster as 1/200 which is 0.005

We can estimate the probability of having had a highest ever rating of 1830 at the age of 31 or 32 as being the number of players having had a highest ever rating of 1830 at the age of 31 or 32 divided by the total number of players. If we had all the FIDE rating information in our own database we could get a pretty good figure for this but in the meantime let's estimate about 1/2 or 0.5

So, we have P(A) = 0.5 and P(B) = 0.005 which means that P(B) / P(A) = 0.01 and we've already seen a jump from 1 in 200 to 1 in 100. However now we come to the fly in the ointment. We still have to multiply by P(A¦B) and this is bound to be less than 1.

Does anybody know of a grandmaster who had a highest ever rating of 1830 at the age of 31 or 32? No? Me neither. That gives us an estimate of zero for P(A¦B).

This gives:
P(A¦B) x P(B) / P(A) = 0 x 0.005 / 0.5 = 0

So, there you have it. The statistical likelihood of Soheil (or you, Nick, or me) becoming a grandmaster is zero.

Still, as Robert Browning said "Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?"
Ah, but I was so much older then. I'm younger than that now.

David Sedgwick
Posts: 2827
Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Croydon

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by David Sedgwick » Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:16 pm

Mick Norris wrote:Do we know who the 10th player will be or is that part of the announcement?
It will be part of the announcement.

soheil_hooshdaran
Posts: 2031
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2013 5:24 pm

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by soheil_hooshdaran » Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:56 am

Brian Towers wrote:
Nick Grey wrote:Soheil listen to Brian. His maths are better than mine.
I still think yours, his and my chance of becoming a GM are very slim.
Actually, Nick, I think "very slim" is overly generous for all three of us.

That previous statistic of roughly 1 in 200 FIDE rated players doesn't tell the whole story because we have additional information and we can use something called Bayes Law or Bayes Theorem to use this additional information to get a more accurate estimate of the likelihood of Soheil becoming a GM. We could do the same for you or more but because we are much older our chances won't be higher than Soheil's.

Bayes Law looks like this:

P(B¦A) = P(A¦B) x P(B) / P(A).

P(B¦A) means the probability of B happening given that we know A is true. P(A) means the probability of A happening, etc.

Now, we know from his FIDE profile that Soheil is 31 or 32 years old and has a highest ever rating of 1830, so the probability we want to calculate is P(B¦A) which is the probability of Soheil becoming a grandmaster given that he is 31 or 32 years old and has a highest ever rating of 1830.

So, we need to calculate the following:

P(A¦B), which is the probability of having had a highest ever rating of 1830 at the age of 31 or 32 and then going on to become a grandmaster
P(A) = the probability of having had a highest ever rating of 1830 at the age of 31 or 32
P(B) = the probability of becoming a grandmaster.

We've previously estimated the chances of becoming a grandmaster as 1/200 which is 0.005

We can estimate the probability of having had a highest ever rating of 1830 at the age of 31 or 32 as being the number of players having had a highest ever rating of 1830 at the age of 31 or 32 divided by the total number of players. If we had all the FIDE rating information in our own database we could get a pretty good figure for this but in the meantime let's estimate about 1/2 or 0.5

So, we have P(A) = 0.5 and P(B) = 0.005 which means that P(B) / P(A) = 0.01 and we've already seen a jump from 1 in 200 to 1 in 100. However now we come to the fly in the ointment. We still have to multiply by P(A¦B) and this is bound to be less than 1.

Does anybody know of a grandmaster who had a highest ever rating of 1830 at the age of 31 or 32? No? Me neither. That gives us an estimate of zero for P(A¦B).

This gives:
P(A¦B) x P(B) / P(A) = 0 x 0.005 / 0.5 = 0

So, there you have it. The statistical likelihood of Soheil (or you, Nick, or me) becoming a grandmaster is zero.

Still, as Robert Browning said "Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?"
:D Good, I learn stats alongside!

My peek rating was 1907 in 2013.

soheil_hooshdaran
Posts: 2031
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2013 5:24 pm

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by soheil_hooshdaran » Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:59 am

David Sedgwick wrote:
Mick Norris wrote:Do we know who the 10th player will be or is that part of the announcement?
It will be part of the announcement.
Please also inform me about the 5-day event.

Brian Towers
Posts: 926
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 7:23 pm

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by Brian Towers » Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:58 am

soheil_hooshdaran wrote:My peek rating was 1907 in 2013.
Thanks, Soheil! That's very interesting. (I daren't say "fascinating", although it is, because then Nick Faulks would start interrogating me again)

I got my 1830 figure from the FIDE rating website from your Rating Progress Chart here - https://ratings.fide.com/id.phtml?event=12509337.
That shows that you first had a rapid rating of 1736 in October 2015 and a standard rating of 1736 (also) in January 2016. Your rapid rating went down to 1731 in November 2015 and was still there in January 2016 when you apparently got your first standard rating 5 points higher. Very suspicious!

However, going back to your profile and clicking on "Click to view all previous periods" under "Individual Calculations" to bring up the "Individual Calculations full report" shows that you actually played your first FIDE rated tournament (after 2001 at any rate) in February 2007. Then from December 2012 through April 2013 your rating was 1907 as you say.

Something clearly amiss with the FIDE ratings website.
Ah, but I was so much older then. I'm younger than that now.

Brian Towers
Posts: 926
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 7:23 pm

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by Brian Towers » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:11 pm

Brian Towers wrote:Very suspicious!

Something clearly amiss with the FIDE ratings website.
Picking on an Iranian grandmaster at random, Shojaat Ghane's profile shows that he became an IM in 2004 and a GM in 2008 but his Rating Progress Chart says that his first rating was for blitz (2321) in December 2014, he didn't get a standard rating (2338) until January 2016 and then a rapid rating (2335) in August 2016.

So, maybe Iranian specific?
Ah, but I was so much older then. I'm younger than that now.

NickFaulks
Posts: 3495
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:28 pm

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by NickFaulks » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:41 pm

Brian Towers wrote:So, maybe Iranian specific?
Nope, seems to apply to other federations which have been / are in arrears. Clearly not intended and will be fixed.

Brian Towers
Posts: 926
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 7:23 pm

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by Brian Towers » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:44 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Brian Towers wrote:So, maybe Iranian specific?
Nope, seems to apply to other federations which have been / are in arrears. Clearly not intended and will be fixed.
Some additional information.

Just checked a random Nigerian IM, Oladapo Asu, his profile says he is an IM but "FIDE Titles (year)" is blank. Olimpbase says he first appeared in the FIDE lists with an IM title in July 1999, presumably for winning something since his ELO has never been that high.
Ah, but I was so much older then. I'm younger than that now.

User avatar
Christopher Kreuzer
Posts: 6586
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 2:34 am
Location: London

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:52 pm

It is quite common for the "FIDE Titles (year)" field to be blank for titled players, especially those who got their titles before the modern era. Can anyone who can be bothered (using the download) check how many titled players have this field blank?

Brian Towers
Posts: 926
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 7:23 pm

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by Brian Towers » Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:09 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:It is quite common for the "FIDE Titles (year)" field to be blank for titled players, especially those who got their titles before the modern era. Can anyone who can be bothered (using the download) check how many titled players have this field blank?
No, they can't, because the download doesn't have that information.
Ah, but I was so much older then. I'm younger than that now.

soheil_hooshdaran
Posts: 2031
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2013 5:24 pm

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by soheil_hooshdaran » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:49 pm

Brian Towers wrote:
Brian Towers wrote:Very suspicious!

Something clearly amiss with the FIDE ratings website.
Picking on an Iranian grandmaster at random, Shojaat Ghane's profile shows that he became an IM in 2004 and a GM in 2008 but his Rating Progress Chart says that his first rating was for blitz (2321) in December 2014, he didn't get a standard rating (2338) until January 2016 and then a rapid rating (2335) in August 2016.

So, maybe Iranian specific?
No
In the last months of 2007(or early 2008), I remember that there was a controversy about his playing in Iran Championship Semifinals (I was also a participant) and he got 2500+ just before the semifinals.

see:http://ratings.fide.com/individual_calc ... -01-01&t=0

David Sedgwick
Posts: 2827
Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Croydon

Re: I wanna become a GM

Post by David Sedgwick » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:30 pm

David Sedgwick wrote:
Mick Norris wrote:Do we know who the 10th player will be or is that part of the announcement?
It will be part of the announcement.
An announcement that Mickey Adams will again be the wildcard at the London Chess Classic flashed across the screen during the commentary from Saint Louis, along with the schedule.

This alerted me to the information having appeared on the Grand Chess Tour website at http://grandchesstour.org/2017-grand-chess-tour/london.

As promised I have started a new thread at http://www.ecforum.org.uk/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=9262.

Post Reply