Candidates Tournament 2013

[Jonathan Bryant]

I've been reading about how Kramnik (or rather him and his team) have come up with a large proportion of the genuinely innovative opening novelties in recent years (maybe the last decade or more?). So that is part of his legacy already.

Without disagreeing, would you be able to cite a few genuinely innovative novelties?

Well there's the Berlin of course. Not a novelty per se, but Kramnik's use of it in 2000 totally changed the face of modern chess. Not many of the top players don't use it now and, as you know, many prefer to avoid the ending altogether.

Thinking about this tournament Kramnik - or his team, at least - seem to have been working hard prior to round 1. He had three different ideas against the Grunfeld, Qc2 in the Catalan and as Black he reintroduced the Semi-Tarrasch and revisted ... Bd7 in the Berlin.

Contrast that to Carlsen who more or less turns up and plays. Although Magnus's strategy of playing anything does make it almost impossible to hit him with a novelty.

[Greg Breed]

I actually think Anand could beat Carlsen. Vishy has been there before and will out-prepare Magnus.

[Chris Rice]

In Moscow 2012 in the game Kramnik-Grischuk they were following the standard KID 1 Nf3 Nf6 2 c4 g6 3 Nc3 Bg7 4 e4 d6 5 d4 0-0 6 Be2 e5 7 0-0 Nc6 8 d5 Ne7 9 b4 Nh5 10 g3 f5 11 Ng5 Nf6 and now thousands of games have gone 12 f3 but Kramnik prepared an entirely new concept, originally destined to play against Radjabov, which started with 12 Bf3 the main justification of which was that after the critical 12...h6 13 Ne6 Bxe6 14 dxe6 Qc8 15 Nd5 Nexd5 (15...Nfxd5 16 cxd5 gives White a big plus) 16 exd5 e4 17 Be2 Nxd5 18 Qxd5 Bxa1 19 e7+ Rf7 20 c5 Black keeps drawing chances but its no fun for him. He won the game against Grischuk and beat Anish Giri in this line as well.

[Peter Roberson]

Matt's numbers are correct if two robots who scored 40%/60% played against each other, but if we include the chance of a draw - say Carlsen scores 60% by winning 23% vs 17% with black and 40% vs 6% with white - then the maths spits out Carlsen 82%, Draw 10%, Anand 8%. Fortunately, the players aren't robots, and Carlsen probably isn't quite that big of a favourite.

However, I'm not sure how much better 2013-Anand is (post move 15) than the Radjabov's and the 2760 "also-rans" that Carlsen beats up week in week out, and I find it hard to see past Magnus winning the match. His style is perfectly directed at negating the importance of opening preparation, and he is just a much better player after the opening. But we'll have to see how well he handles nerves - e.g. if he's 1 up and loses in round 8, he'll have to handle it better than he did his loss to Chucky this tournament.

I'm cheering Magnus to win the match, since if he's champion and we have an all play all to determine his challenger each year, then all of a sudden the format makes a lot more sense than it has in a long time.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I'm cheering Magnus to win the match, since if he's champion and we have an all play all to determine his challenger each year, then all of a sudden the format makes a lot more sense than it has in a long time.

Where has the yearly bit come from? I thought it was a 2-year cycle? Did FIDE announce something new somewhere again?

[Matthew Turner]

Peter's calculations are rather interesting because I had been wondering what odds a bookmaker should offer. I was thinking something like

Anand 3/1
Carlsen 1/6

That is a 111% book which is probably about right. Would Carlsen be fantastic value at those odds?

[Jonathan Bryant]

In Moscow 2012 in the game Kramnik-Grischuk they were following the standard KID 1 Nf3 Nf6 2 c4 g6 3 Nc3 Bg7 4 e4 d6 5 d4 0-0 6 Be2 e5 7 0-0 Nc6 8 d5 Ne7 9 b4 ...

Wasn't it Kramnik who re-energised 9 b4 itself as well?



@Chris,

I do recall FIDE saying at some point that they wanted the World Championship to be run on a yearly basis but whether that's still the plan or not I'm not sure. I struggle to keep up.

[Mick Norris]

I'm cheering Magnus to win the match, since if he's champion and we have an all play all to determine his challenger each year, then all of a sudden the format makes a lot more sense than it has in a long time.

Where has the yearly bit come from? I thought it was a 2-year cycle? Did FIDE announce something new somewhere again?

Candidates matches (sic) scheduled for 12-30 March 2014 and 9-28 March 2016

World Championship Match scheduled for 6-26 November 2013 and 5-25 November 2014

2015 is free

http://www.fide.com/calendar/fide-calendar.html

All subject, I guess, to constant change and argument

[Chris Rice]

...and I guess it will also depend on whether the sponsors made money out of this one? It couldn't have been much more popular and exciting but there weren't many spectators at the venue according to most accounts so did they generate income from elsewhere to offset the costs of staging it? Sorry to be negative but we've been through this so many times already and I'm really hoping this time it's going to have a happy ending.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

...and I guess it will also depend on whether the sponsors made money out of this one? It couldn't have been much more popular and exciting but there weren't many spectators at the venue according to most accounts so did they generate income from elsewhere to offset the costs of staging it? Sorry to be negative but we've been through this so many times already and I'm really hoping this time it's going to have a happy ending.

I don't think sponsors aim to make money. They provide money in return for publicity, exposure and advertising. There is a reason for the logo-strewn background in the videos and press conferences. If Carlsen had been less tired, he would have done all his interviews in front of such things, though I think his manager was hovering around to make sure that was being done. SOCAR were probably not best pleased that Radjabov did so poorly, but that can't be helped. I'm not sure, but AGON might have farmed off (sold) concessions (such as the bookstall and ticket sales) to others to try and generate income or avoid a loss somehow. Paulsen was around a lot. Not sure if he will be doing post-event interviews about how successful things were behind the scenes, or whether he will be looking ahead to the next event. The other sponsor was Samsung, I think (they provided the tablet computers).

[Roger de Coverly]

...and I guess it will also depend on whether the sponsors made money out of this one?

When do sponsors ever make money out of sponsorship? It's the nature of sponsorship that you hand over money in exchange for name and brand promotion. If asked to name an Azeri oil company, I suppose SOCAR now comes to mind.

I'm not sure whether Agon or FIDE made anything on the event. There's usually a FIDE tax that part of the prize fund is handed over to FIDE, but the pre-event rumours seemed to indicate budget problems, something alluded to by Malcolm Pein in the latest edition of Chess.

If the Anand v Carlsen match attracts a bidding war, presumably Agon or FIDE can try and recoup losses on the Candidates, if indeed they suffered them.

No spectators were allowed at the Simpsons Grand Prix event, so I don't know how significant they were to the financial viability of the Candidates. Their presence does avoid the embarrassing shots sometimes seen at FIDE events in the past, such as Kazan and the World Cup final in Siberia, where audience cutaways on the coverage just seemed to show an empty room with unoccupied seats.

[Chris Rice]

i wouldn't disagree with what both of you say about SOCAR. My understanding was that Radjabov was only added because of the Azeri sponsors. OK he didn't do so well but i'm sure SOCAR got all the advertising and media attention they were looking for. No, it's AGON that intrigues me and whether AP thought it was a success. The Guardian ran an article just after the finish and here's an extract:

"The auditorium at the Institute of Engineering and Technology in central London was packed for the final day's play, and the tension in the hall was unbearable, with the players pacing round like expectant fathers while waiting for their opponents to move. An estimated half a million enthusiasts were following the games on a variety of websites carrying the moves in real time, and as Carlsen's position disintegrated Norway's biggest news websites collapsed in sympathy.

Carlsen will play the reigning champion, Viswanathan Anand, for the world title in November in a match over at least 12 games. Anand's native India has long been mooted as the probable location for the match, but officials from tournament organisers Agon on Monday said New York was also a possibility.

A confrontation between Anand and Carlsen is a saleable commodity, and Agon realises it's now or never to get chess back on the map. The match might not yet command Madison Square Garden, but after a long period in the doldrums chess at least seems to have escaped the Siberian wilderness. "

I'm really hoping for another Candidates tournament in 2014 (in London!) so the Anand - Carlsen match has to be as exciting as the 2013 Candidates which is not guaranteed. Anand is not the player he was and Carlsen is certainly the favourite. Let's hope it's not too one-sided or the sponsors may well walk away. Alternatively we don't want 12 draws followed by a quick play finish either!

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I actually think Anand could beat Carlsen. Vishy has been there before and will out-prepare Magnus.

Some articles from the press in India:

http://www.thehindu.com/sport/other-spo ... 573447.ece
http://www.dnaindia.com/sport/1818356/r ... than-anand

[Chris Rice]

The stats certainly bear out Greg's opinion. Looking at their head to head it appears that Carlsen still for some way to go. I'm sure someone can verify whether these figures are right but it appears of their 27 previous games Anand has won 6 Carlsen has won 2 and their other 19 games have been drawn. Bodes well for an exciting match!

[Ray Sayers]

It's kind of pointless to look back at records sometimes. I mean, take Fischer and Spassky - Fischer had never beaten Spassky before their 1972 match!

I think you can't also compare what happened at the Candidates tournament to a 1v1 match. In a match, you just have to outscore one person instead of worrying about other players catching you. In other words, in a match if you draw a game you just shrug and say 'ok, maybe next game' which kind of sums up the temperament of Carlsen. He doesn't have to mix it up, just plod along and play correct moves.

Vishy has started playing better recently; if he can continue, it will be a good match. But he is nearly twice as old as Carlsen and is lagging some way behind in the rating list. If Vishy plays like he did against Gelfand, I think Carlsen will win relatively comfortably. The one thing Vishy has on his side is an awful lot of WC experience - I remember someone (can't remember who - I am sure someone here will tell me) saying that playing a WC match is like nothing you ever did before, no matter how good you are.

I've got a lot of respect for Vishy and he comes across as a real gentleman, so I wish him well. I just hope we get a really enjoyable match.