2024 World Championship Predictions

[Steven DuCharme]

Gukesh 8 Liren 5 ... What say you?

[Paul Cooksey]

If Gukesh is 7-5 up I think he will give Ding a draw however good his position.

I can only imagine such a close score if Gukesh gets an early lead and plays cautiously. I like DIng and wish him the best, but on the basis he won't see this, and we should be honest, I fear it is going to be brutal. Maybe 7.5 - 3.5

[IM Jack Rudd]

I'll go with the FIDE expected score tables, and that gives Gukesh an expected score after 13 games of 7.67, so that'll be 7½-5½.

[Matt Mackenzie]

It will be a major surprise if Gukesh doesn't win, and in "normal time" to boot. But no, I don't think it will be a wipeout nonetheless.

Ding has little to lose and will surely play better chess than he has normally shown recently.

[Paul Cooksey]

I'll go with the FIDE expected score tables, and that gives Gukesh an expected score after 13 games of 7.67, so that'll be 7½-5½.

I assume based on their current ratings. But I think the performance ratings for 2024 are 2802 for Gukesh and 2665 for Ding. That would be an even more one sided match than I am predicting.

[Jonathan Rogers]

Yes, it seemed to me that Jack was not allowing for momentum and their vastly different trajectories of late. I would very much like Ding to make a match of it, but have the same levels of optimism/confidence that I would have when Arsenal in their later years under Arsene Wenger would play away against Liverpool or Chelsea.

[IM Jack Rudd]

I am allowing for momentum; I am just explicitly giving it a weight of 0.

[Jonathan Rogers]

surely momentum has proved to be a favourable factor for challengers in previous world championships (Tal, Fischer, Carlsen must have won by an even greater margin than expected over their vulnerable defending champions). If that is right, what is different here?

[IM Jack Rudd]

Fischer underperformed relative to the rating gap in the 1972 match, even if you discount game 2.

[Paul Cooksey]

Still, I'd be surprised to see much better chess from Ding than he played against Nepo.

How Gukesh plays under pressure is an unknown. But I can't recall an events where it was an issue in the past.

[Paolo Casaschi]

I believe it will be a much more balanced match than most seem to expect, with Ding winning at the very end. Either 7.5 to 6.5 or a tie-break win for Ding.

Ding had a lot of time to prepare for this match, with no distractions. Gukesh had to qualify, then prove himself at every event. All the pressure is on Gukesh, Ding already won the title and nobody expects much from him. All set for drama with a surprise ending.

[Nick Ivell]

I don't think Ding has the form to win. Win for Gukesh, but maybe close.

[Jonathan Rogers]

I believe it will be a much more balanced match than most seem to expect, with Ding winning at the very end. Either 7.5 to 6.5 or a tie-break win for Ding.

Ding had a lot of time to prepare for this match, with no distractions. Gukesh had to qualify, then prove himself at every event. All the pressure is on Gukesh, Ding already won the title and nobody expects much from him. All set for drama with a surprise ending.

I would like to see you proved right. Indeed, I'd be happy enough with Jack's projection of a relatively competitive match. But surely we cannot ignore his actual form like this, which is after all the reason why no one expects much from him. It is dreadful, I suspect, even in historical terms. Even Botvinnik in 1951, who hadn't played at all in three years, probably started the match in better shape. I fear that the potential tragedy of his losing some early games and resigning the match on (genuine) health grounds is about as likely as his actually winning.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Does anyone think the first win will be crucial? And are we likely to see big battles in opening preparation or quieter games? Who is better at endgames or has the stamina for them? Who is better at recovering from a loss, and is either player noticeably better with White (or Black), or are both capable of playing for unbalanced positions and wins with either colour?

(Fingers crossed Jonathan's prediction about resigning the match after a bad start does not come true!)

[Joey Stewart]

Id say the greatest leveller here might be nerves - This is Gukeshs first time competing for the world championship, he is fully expected to win and is responsible for the hopes and dreams of one billion Indian fans which is surely going to cause pressure.
Ding, on the other hand is a man with nothing to lose, he's been seen as an absent champion who only got his title because Magnus quit, doesn't really have much home support in China and going on recent form is not seen to have much of a chance - all this will actually benefit him mentally as he can just play his game freely without any expectations, knowing that if he does win it will silence a lot of the nay sayers and fully legitimise his reign.

I'm going to go with an optimistic 7-7 in the classical and then revisit my prediction for the tiebreaks