2024 FIDE Candidates Toronto April 3-23

[Christopher Kreuzer]

That will mean all four players still in contention will be within half a point of each other, with White needing to win in both games and Black needing to at least draw (for Gukesh) and win (for Nepo).

[LawrenceCooper]

Caruana wins.

Nakamura (8) v Gukesh (8.5) & Caruana (8) v Nepo (8) to finish the tournament.

[Graham Borrowdale]

Wow! Beautiful ending from Caruana, worth staying up for.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

How would Nepo and Caruana prepare for a game like this?? They are good enough they may fight to a standstill, which would suit Gukesh (and also Nakamura if he can find a way to outplay or outprepare Gukesh).

It will be incredibly tense!

[Matt Mackenzie]

Don't think there has been a really exciting last round in the Candidates since 2013.

And there were "just" two in contention then, not four. We certainly won't get all the front runners losing this time anyway

[Graham Borrowdale]

Must win for Nepo and Caruana - I don’t see how Nepo could win on demand with black, but maybe the player who is ‘least desperate’ will have the edge psychologically. In a normal tournament they might settle for a draw and a good prize, but here it’s winner takes all for the main prize.
Nakamura also needs to win, obviously, but he says he is not really bothered, or words to that effect, so has less pressure. Not sure I believe that, and I think he will win, along with Caruana.
Is anyone predicting Gukesh to win outright?

[Matt Mackenzie]

Is anyone predicting Gukesh to win outright?

He is leading with a round to go, how can anyone rule him out?

After all, it "only" needs the top two games to end up as draws for that to happen.

[Jonathan Rogers]

Is anyone predicting Gukesh to win outright?

He is leading with a round to go, how can anyone rule him out?

After all, it "only" needs the top two games to end up as draws for that to happen.

For that reason alone, he must be the favourite. Maybe he has 55% of the remaining chances (to emerge as the qualifier from all of this, whether or not after tie breaks if necessary), Naka has 25% (because for him there is also the possibility of being outright winner without tiebreaks), Caruana 15% (simply because playing White v Nepo) and Nepo just 5%. Aye, poor Nepo, being unbeaten has not done him many favours after all. Not winning a game against Abasov is looking like a big deal right now.

[Nick Burrows]

I'll stick with my pre-tourney pick.

Nakamura 1-0 Gukesh
Caruana 1/2-1/2 Nepo

Gukesh collapsed in game 1 vs Nepo, and although he held it together last night, he looked very nervous and let his clock run down to seconds at one point. I think if Naka gets a long game he has a great chance.

On the other hand, I really like Gukesh and it would be an exciting spectacle to watch him play for the title with India behind him.

[Paul Cooksey]

I'm not a huge fan of chess.com, but they do have Magnus on their commentary

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Two hours in, is anyone calling it yet? Looks level on all boards (including the one where the draw was agreed!).

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I like Caruana's position now at move 20 after Nepo castled queenside. However, a long way to go.

[LawrenceCooper]

Two hours in, is anyone calling it yet? Looks level on all boards (including the one where the draw was agreed!).

Gukesh & Caruana are both better but still a long way to go. It may help both their causes that their opponents probably won't be in the mood to patiently defend worse positions.

[LawrenceCooper]

Two hours in, is anyone calling it yet? Looks level on all boards (including the one where the draw was agreed!).

Gukesh & Caruana are both better but still a long way to go. It may help both their causes that their opponents probably won't be in the mood to patiently defend worse positions.

Caruana win and Gukesh draw looks the most likely.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Too early to talk about who would be favourite in the playoff?