Grand Chess Draw Croatia

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How many draws will there be?

Poll ended at Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:16 am

Over 49.5
6
55%
Under 49.5
5
45%
 
Total votes: 11

Alex Holowczak
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Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by Alex Holowczak » Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:16 am

At the last classical Round Robin in the series, the Sinquefield Cup in 2018, 37 out of the 45 games were drawn. The tournament had no single winner, with the players opting out of the tiebreak.

Zagreb has 12 players rather than 10, so there are 66 games. It will surely be another drawfest, but how much of one?

In the poll, I've set the over/under at 49.5 drawn games. This is equivalent to a draw rate of 75%, i.e. 1.5 decisive games per round. The Sinquefield Cup last year had a rate over 80% but that seemed to be high even by modern standards.

So would you take over 49.5 or under 49.5?

John McKenna
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by John McKenna » Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:13 am

In my estimation the observer effect - triggered by this topic - will reduce the number of draws, but not a lot.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observe ... _(physics)
Last edited by John McKenna on Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Mike Gunn
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by Mike Gunn » Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:49 pm

Even the poll is currently drawn at 3 votes each.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:12 pm

Back to 4-4... :D

Leonard Barden
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by Leonard Barden » Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:25 pm

As I've written in my Guardian article today, I'm less pessimistic about Zagreb than this thread has been so far.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/ ... en-entries

Reasons: Carlsen's potential rating records, the evocative historic legacy of previous Zagrebs, the presence of nine of the top 10 making it one of the strongest ever tournaments, and having 11 rounds rather than 9 which reduces the impact of a single defeat.

Let's see what happens.

David Sedgwick
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by David Sedgwick » Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:53 am

For those who would like to discuss the chess in Zagreb, I have started a thread at viewtopic.php?f=31&t=10285.

Alex Holowczak
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by Alex Holowczak » Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:08 am

4 decisive games in Round 1 have been followed by 2 decisive games in Rounds 2-4. So suddenly, the tournament is back on pace for exactly 49.5 draws.

LawrenceCooper
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by LawrenceCooper » Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:26 pm

Mamedyarov-Aronian worth a look with a material imbalance of queen against rook and four passed pawns.

John McKenna
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by John McKenna » Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:57 pm

Pleased to report, here, that it ended in a draw - by repetition.
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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:02 pm

Four draws today, another quite likely and a second consecutive clean sweep possible (though Ding "should" win)
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

John McKenna
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by John McKenna » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:14 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:02 pm
Four draws today, another quite likely and a second consecutive clean sweep possible (though Ding "should" win)
Win(g) Ding!

Although, is Naka more likely to win v. Nepo!?

Edit: No, Naka 1/2 Nepo.
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

John McKenna
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by John McKenna » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:47 pm

Ding won it with a passed pawn, or three, on the king's wing v. one on the queen's.
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:29 pm

Another draw-friendly round yesterday.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sat Jul 06, 2019 9:00 pm

All draws in the penultimate round, and most looked like ending that way throughout too.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

David Robertson
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Re: Grand Chess Draw Croatia

Post by David Robertson » Sat Jul 06, 2019 9:42 pm

Dire. Just dire. The players are knackered, bored, need a rest. Tired of each other too probably, cooped up together tourney on tourney. Not great

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