Grand Chess Draw Croatia

[Alex Holowczak]

At the last classical Round Robin in the series, the Sinquefield Cup in 2018, 37 out of the 45 games were drawn. The tournament had no single winner, with the players opting out of the tiebreak.

Zagreb has 12 players rather than 10, so there are 66 games. It will surely be another drawfest, but how much of one?

In the poll, I've set the over/under at 49.5 drawn games. This is equivalent to a draw rate of 75%, i.e. 1.5 decisive games per round. The Sinquefield Cup last year had a rate over 80% but that seemed to be high even by modern standards.

So would you take over 49.5 or under 49.5?

[John McKenna]

In my estimation the observer effect - triggered by this topic - will reduce the number of draws, but not a lot.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observe ... _(physics)

[Mike Gunn]

Even the poll is currently drawn at 3 votes each.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Back to 4-4...

[Leonard Barden]

As I've written in my Guardian article today, I'm less pessimistic about Zagreb than this thread has been so far.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/ ... en-entries

Reasons: Carlsen's potential rating records, the evocative historic legacy of previous Zagrebs, the presence of nine of the top 10 making it one of the strongest ever tournaments, and having 11 rounds rather than 9 which reduces the impact of a single defeat.

Let's see what happens.

[David Sedgwick]

For those who would like to discuss the chess in Zagreb, I have started a thread at viewtopic.php?f=31&t=10285.

[Alex Holowczak]

4 decisive games in Round 1 have been followed by 2 decisive games in Rounds 2-4. So suddenly, the tournament is back on pace for exactly 49.5 draws.

[LawrenceCooper]

Mamedyarov-Aronian worth a look with a material imbalance of queen against rook and four passed pawns.

[John McKenna]

Pleased to report, here, that it ended in a draw - by repetition.

[Matt Mackenzie]

Four draws today, another quite likely and a second consecutive clean sweep possible (though Ding "should" win)

[John McKenna]

Four draws today, another quite likely and a second consecutive clean sweep possible (though Ding "should" win)

Win(g) Ding!

Although, is Naka more likely to win v. Nepo!?

Edit: No, Naka 1/2 Nepo.

[John McKenna]

Ding won it with a passed pawn, or three, on the king's wing v. one on the queen's.

[Matt Mackenzie]

Another draw-friendly round yesterday.

[Matt Mackenzie]

All draws in the penultimate round, and most looked like ending that way throughout too.

[David Robertson]

Dire. Just dire. The players are knackered, bored, need a rest. Tired of each other too probably, cooped up together tourney on tourney. Not great