FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament 2019 - Isle of Man

[Jonathan Rogers]

Presumably he needs favours elsewhere as well as winning tomorrow, though.

If he were the only winner in his score group, would that do the trick?

I imagine so, but that itself would require favourable developments elsewhere, eg if he does not play Wang Hao and just has to hope that the latter doesn't win (with White) against someone else.

[Mick Norris]

At the moment we have

7 - Aronian, Nakamura, Wang Hao, Vitiugov, Howell

Carlsen and Alekseenko look likely to join them, Caruana looks likely to lead with 7.5

If David wins, then wins for Caruana & Carlsen wouldn't matter; however he'll have black and it will be a big ask whoever he plays

I'd love to see David in the Candidates, but I'm not sure I could take 14 rounds of him in time trouble

[JustinHorton]

Antón's resistance comes to an end.

So does Matlakov's, somewhat to my surprise as I thought he might like to test Carlsen's knowledge of king and queen against king and rook.

[LawrenceCooper]

At the moment we have

7 - Aronian, Nakamura, Wang Hao, Vitiugov, Howell

Carlsen and Alekseenko look likely to join them, Caruana looks likely to lead with 7.5

If David wins, then wins for Caruana & Carlsen wouldn't matter; however he'll have black and it will be a big ask whoever he plays

I'd love to see David in the Candidates, but I'm not sure I could take 14 rounds of him in time trouble

Karjakin has lost, I suspect him and Anand both losing with white to lower rated opponents in the same round doesn't happen very often.

[Mick Norris]

7.5 - Caruana

7 - Carlsen, Aronian, Nakamura, Wang Hao, Vitiugov, Howell & Alekseenko

I think both Carlsen & Vitiugov have to have black in the final round?

Caruana has played Carlsen, Aronian & Wang Hao

Carlsen has also played Wang Hao & Alekseenko

Wang Hao has played Caruana, Carlsen, Vitiugov, Aronian

[JustinHorton]

Still three games going on (including the obvious candidate to be among the last three games going on) so I don't think we'll be seeing the draw for a while.

What a fine day of chess though.

[JustinHorton]

Looks like Matlakov will lose.

Does it?

My thinking was that he was in a highly complex position, an hour down on the clock and playing Carlsen. However, Magnus does seem to have been extraordinarily careless.

Indeed

[Matt Mackenzie]

Antón's resistance comes to an end.

So does Matlakov's, somewhat to my surprise as I thought he might like to test Carlsen's knowledge of king and queen against king and rook.

He might have played on longer against someone else, I suppose.

Has the WC ever been required to polish off that ending before?

[Tim Harding]

7.5 - Caruana

7 - Carlsen, Aronian, Nakamura, Wang Hao, Vitiugov, Howell & Alekseenko

I think both Carlsen & Vitiugov have to have black in the final round?
Caruana has played Carlsen, Aronian & Wang Hao
Carlsen has also played Wang Hao & Alekseenko
Wang Hao has played Caruana, Carlsen, Vitiugov, Aronian

Wang Hao must have White after two successive Blacks. I think that, whoever he plays, if he wins he qualifies for the Candidates. If he draws or loses. then the others have a chance. But of course the last round pairings change the opponent rating averages for everyone. Whoever gets Carlsen gets a boost (if they don't lose of course) which could be enough to bring Levon above Alekseenko but perhaps not above Wang Hao?

So there is a top pairing group of 8 with four White-seekers (one forced) and four Black-seekers (two forced).

As of 2225 BST the pairings are not yet up; I expect they will be triple-checked by hand by several people after the computer churns them out?

Carlsen hasn't played Aronian, Nakamura, Vitiugov and Howell but the last two are also Black-seekers (he certainly can't meet Vitiugov) and so if they upfloat the highest rated available player for Caruana, that seems to leave Aronian as his likely opponent. The other players have more than one possible opponent but I suspect that this will be a determining factor.

So while awaiting the official pairings, I think the top boards in round 11 may be:

Nakamura 2745 v Caruana 2812
Aronian 2758 v Carlsen 2876
Wang Hao 2726 v Howell 2694
Alekseenko 2674 v Vitiugov 2732

Other suggestions?

[Mick Norris]

Naka v Caruana
Aronian v Carlsen
Alekseenko v Vitiugov
Wang Hao v Howell

Pairings

[Mick Norris]

I think that leaves the tiebreak order as:

Wang Hao
Alekseenko
Aronian
Nakamura
Vitiugov
Howell

This means that Howell & Vitiugov both have to win as black or they are out of contention; Naka, Aronian & Alekseenko have to win as white; Wang Hao may qualify with a draw, but will do so with a win?

[Paul Cooksey]

So, predictions:
Naka-Caruana - petroff, in which Naka does not get much and Fabi closes down the game, because with his superior tiebreak a draw guarantees the tournament win
Aronian-Carlsen Rossilimo, Lev needs to win, since he has already seen Wang draw. He tries something creative and loses
Alekseenko-Vitugov Vitiugov repeats the Steinitz French from the recent Russian championship. Craziness ensues, and the winner qualifies for the candidates
Wang-Howell - Wang plays a supesrolid Re1 anti-Berlin and draws, hoping his superior tiebreak is enough, but it isn't

[Mick Norris]

A draw wins Caruana the tournament unless Wang Hao wins

[Paul Cooksey]

I missed that and is true, and maybe good news for Naka. Although I still expect Fabi to be conservative with Black

[JustinHorton]

So are we sure what the respective players' tiebreaks are? The TB1 column on the standings after 10 rounds doesn't appear to have updated after the round 11 draw was made, which I thought that it would.