English Chess Forum

Obviously Nepo is favourite, but I found myself pondering whether it was more likely that he would win than not. What do you reckon? I reckon it's a close call. (For the record, the odds the bookies are offering on his winning seem to be a little less attractive than this: currently 5/3 on.)

Feel free to explain your reasons. Poll closes after 24 hours, i.e. at about half-eight your time Thursday evening.

Black against Ding in the last round could be awkward and I think Caruana will fight. But I’ve gone for Nepo. I think a point lead with four rounds to go is a decent advantage and I think he'll hold his nerve. If he draws out (and I think he could do better) then one of Caruana, Giri or MVL will need to score three and that’s a tough ask. My vote only slightly influenced by wanting to see a Carlsen vs. Nepo World Championship match.

If his nerves are good - and given what is at stake, that is quite an if! - I expect Nepo should do it.

I also think he will hope to win at least one more game.

Angus French wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:21 pm

If he draws out (and I think he could do better) then one of Caruana, Giri or MVL will need to score three

Giri would need three and a half, I think?

I voted for the others, the potential for nerves being the deciding factor.

JustinHorton wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:50 pm

Angus French wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:21 pm

If he draws out (and I think he could do better) then one of Caruana, Giri or MVL will need to score three

Giri would need three and a half, I think?

Ah, OK.

I'd still take the field against Nepo now, albeit with him now as a strong favourite. Nepo Black against Ding on the last day when he is under huge pressure and Ding is not puts me in mind of the 2013 finish. So still a long way to go.

Angus French wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:48 pm

JustinHorton wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:50 pm

Angus French wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:21 pm

If he draws out (and I think he could do better) then one of Caruana, Giri or MVL will need to score three

Giri would need three and a half, I think?

Ah, OK.

I've gone for Nepo; the leader (or co-leader) at this stage has won the last 4 candidates as pointed out by Douglas Griffin

If he did draw out, then Giri would indeed need 3.5 as he has an inferior tiebreak; Nepo has white v both Caruana & MVL to come, so on your assumption these games are drawn, Caruana or MVL would need 2.5/3 from their other games, which seems a big ask

Mick Norris wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:43 am

If he did draw out, then Giri would indeed need 3.5 as he has an inferior tiebreak; Nepo has white v both Caruana & MVL to come, so on your assumption these games are drawn, Caruana or MVL would need 2.5/3 from their other games, which seems a big ask

I agree. If you calculate the probabilities on some theoretical basis, then discount the answer a bit ( or even a lot ) because big accidents happen, the answer must still be well north of 50%.

For what it's worth Matt Fletcher's model has 57% Nepo, though I do not think psychological elements are factored in.

Obviously, it will be much easier to call when we know the result of Nepo v Caruana tomorrow.
Will Nepo try to kill the game for a safe draw? In a big fight I would back Caruana despite his having Black. If Nepo wins that game he is basically home (though I agree losing to Ding could be a danger), so he may try to win; a lot will depend on the opening preparation of them both.

If Caruana can only draw then I think the one player with a chance is MVL; the problem is that his play has not been up to his standard in the first half. But he has two things going for him: a) favourable tie-break having beaten Nepo in round 7; b) the easiest run-in by far.

MVL has to hold his game with Black against Nepo, but his other three games are definitely winnable:
Black against Grischuk because of G's crazy time-handling and rather unconvincing play;
White against Alekseenko because of the colours and MVL is clearly the stronger player;
White against Wang Hao, again because of the colours and relative strength.
Both Alekseenko and Wang have had bad confidence-shaking losses this week and MVL will especially be targeting wins in those games.
So it's not inconceivable that MVL could score 3.5 from the last four and I think he has an excellent chance of 3/4.

PS: I voted for the field.

Paul Cooksey wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:25 am

Nepo Black against Ding on the last day when he is under huge pressure and Ding is not puts me in mind of the 2013 finish.

Fatigue undoubtedly played a part on that day. Owing to the peculiar circumstances, it should be far less of an issue this time.

JustinHorton wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:07 am

For what it's worth Matt Fletcher's model has 57% Nepo, though I do not think psychological elements are factored in.

No psychology, just ratings and a few assumptions on % draws, White advantage etc.

I think my model is slightly less optimistic about Nepo’s chances than others I’ve seen though apparently it matches very well with the betting markets (this is a fluke - in previous rounds it wasn’t as close)

We have a tie!

You need a tiebreak

I went for the field.