Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Sun Dec 12, 2021 7:07 pm

A good take by Nigel Davies here: the main reason Nepomniachtchi didn't play particularly attacking openings was that Carlsen's preparation was designed to frustrate this.

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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by Paul Cooksey » Mon Dec 13, 2021 7:12 am

I think it is fair to call the Petroff an example of a well prepared opening that did not quite suit the player. Tal's advanced Caro-Kann being the textbook example from the past.

Dubov might have provoked the Russian team a bit with his observation that their approach was to bring in the biggest guns regardless of the group harmony. It made me wonder if Kramnik was one of the bug guns rounded up.


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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:35 pm

Hmmm, find it hard to see him abdicating a la Fischer in any circumstances.
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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by Nick Ivell » Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:38 pm

I think he knows who the only realistic challenger is.

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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:29 pm

Nick Ivell wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:38 pm
I think he knows who the only realistic challenger is.
Fiddlesticks and flapdoodle.

I don't know what Firouzja's probability of winning the next Candidates is at this stage, but I'm pretty certain it's less than ½.

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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by NickFaulks » Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:41 pm

IM Jack Rudd wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:29 pm
I don't know what Firouzja's probability of winning the next Candidates is at this stage, but I'm pretty certain it's less than ½.
Of course. As I regularly say, if anyone wants to back him at even money, they know where to find me.
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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:42 pm

Not sure its that low actually, just as Carlsen *not* qualifying in 2013 would have been a genuine surprise.

(even if it was a close run thing)
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by NickFaulks » Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:43 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:42 pm
Not sure its that low actually
Posts crossed. I feel a bet coming on.
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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:49 pm

The point is, the way AF is progressing he looks the "coming man" the same way Carlsen did then - or indeed Kasparov three decades earlier.

That doesn't make it inevitable he *will* qualify, but.....

(whereas the Candidates Tournaments after Carlsen have had no overwhelming favourites thus far)
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

Nick Burrows
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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by Nick Burrows » Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:15 pm

However good he is, he will definitely be an underdog to the field.

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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:28 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:42 pm
Not sure its that low actually, just as Carlsen *not* qualifying in 2013 would have been a genuine surprise.

(even if it was a close run thing)
Yes, but Carlsen was 62 points ahead of the second highest rated player in the tournament. Firouzja isn't, and is unlikely to be by the time the tournament rolls around.

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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by JustinHorton » Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:59 pm

Odds can be hard to look up for past events, but I wonder what (if anything) was being offered on Carlsen in 2013.
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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by MJMcCready » Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:21 am

Nick Burrows wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:15 pm
However good he is, he will definitely be an underdog to the field.
Most likely yes. The way he recently lost to Caruana being an example of why that might be so.

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Re: Carlsen v Nepomniatchi 2021 World Championship

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:57 pm

I don't think that Carlsen would actually be averse to a match with Ding were he to be the qualifier.

The significance of such an encounter doesn't really need explaining, quite apart from how strong a player DL is.

(Magnus has "only" a 1-0 score against him in classical chess, and should have lost at least one of the draws)
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

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