Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:53 am

In another post, I pointed out the news that Carlsen is targeting a 2900 rating.

This was covered just over a week ago by Leonard Barden in The Guardian:

Chess: Magnus Carlsen targets all-time rating record of 2900 at Wijk aan Zee

Nice bit of history there with mentions of Mallory and Irvine! :D

This is a bit more controversial:
Leonard Barden wrote:After four successful defences of his global crown, Carlsen says he will only do so again in 2023 if his opponent is the current No 2, Alireza Firouzja, 18, or another grandmaster from the new generation.
What are the views here on that. Peter Wells has said this development is a "little [disturbing]", and suggests that Ding Liren and Nodirbek Abdusattorov are other names as well.

But should Carlsen be saying things like this? I agree with Wells that:
Peter Wells wrote:the situation which has pertained under his reign in which we could be confident that he would compete with whichever player was thrown up by the system had a very healthy feel to it.
(The piece by Wells in full is here.)

Interesting to hear in Leonard's column about some of the behind-the-scenes negotiations over appearance fees and so on. Was it like that back in the days of Soviet GMs as well, or was it all a bit different then?

[Interesting review by Leonard of Sadler's latest book, The Silicon Road to Chess Improvement - this is the wrong thread to discuss that, but worth a look.]

Nick Ivell
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Re: Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

Post by Nick Ivell » Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:01 am

I suppose it's the only big thing left to aim at.

There will always be arguments as to GOAT: Magnus or Garry?

My personal favourite is Bobby, but I know chess has moved on.

I can't imagine that the current world champion is aiming at Lasker's record for longevity. He won't make 26 years, anyway.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:04 am

Does anyone know where the original announcement was made?

In this article there is a suggestion it was an interview for a podcast:

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/other- ... -1.4755399

"Speaking to the Løperekka podcast for his sponsor Unibet"

Was that the first time it was mentioned (and is a transcript available)? Or is that a follow-up interview?

i.e. was it an oral announcement, or was there a blog/press release somewhere?

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Re: Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

Post by Leonard Barden » Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:36 am

Today's Guardian column updates the quest for 2900 https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/ ... ks-pundits
while the latest FT column links to an article which points out the statistical hurdles:
https://www.ft.com/content/71674c8b-673 ... 8c1822a895

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:52 pm

The reddit statistical post is here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments ... _the_fide/

I tend to agree that it is unlikely, but there is a psychological element as well, in that players facing Magnus if he is near his target, will be motivated to either do well, or will collapse in some way mentally. Also, the more he moves away from the rest of the top players in terms of rating, the harder it is for him to continue to increase his rating.

He really needs a pack of 2800+ players to appear, rising up away from the rest, and then for him to play those 2800+ players in closed tournaments and for him to win them, for him to get to 2900. These 2700-2800 players are just not really good enough! :wink:

PS. A couple of wins against a 3500-rated computer would also do the trick, but would be a bit harder as well, i.e. impossible (and I don't think those matches could be rated, and the computers are only 'rated' 3500 [really these are estimates?] because of matches between themselves, I think - though I stand to be corrected). Also, Magnus needs to get to 2900 in human chess - need to leave the computers out of it.

(I also hear there are computers laughing about this, and targeting a rating of 4000...) :? Is there any limit to the rating a really strong computer program could achieve? What is the limit for humans?

Nick Ivell
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Re: Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

Post by Nick Ivell » Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:05 pm

Very hard to say what the limits are.

In athletics, the world records for 100 metres (say) will continue to be shaved down; but a human is NEVER going to be as fast as a cheetah.

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Re: Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

Post by Kevin Thurlow » Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:24 pm

"In athletics, the world records for 100 metres (say) will continue to be shaved down; but a human is NEVER going to be as fast as a cheetah."

Over 100 m, I agree! Actually, a human would probably lose over 400 m, as once the cheetah catches you the race is over...

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Re: Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

Post by Geoff Chandler » Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:10 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:53 am
In another post, I pointed out the news that Carlsen is targeting a 2900 rating.

This was covered just over a week ago by Leonard Barden in The Guardian:

Chess: Magnus Carlsen targets all-time rating record of 2900 at Wijk aan Zee
Hi Chris,

I see Leonard has fallen into fashion by calling the h-pawn 'Harry.'

In this respect I am guided by a conversion between a greenhorn and a cowboy in the film; 'The Culpepper Cattle Co.'

Greenhorn: 'Sure is a nice horse. What's his name?'
Cowboy : 'You don't put a name on something you might have to eat.'

You don't put a name on something you might have to sac.
All my pawns are prone to my sacrificial whims and the h-pawn is usually the first to go.

---

I cannot see Carlsen crawling to 2900 till those behind him catch him up a bit. He is 60 pts. ahead of Caruana.
He needs a dozen or so of the others to get up to 2830-2850 to make it worthwhile beating them.

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Re: Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

Post by Kevin Thurlow » Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:59 pm

Ratings will change though whenever someone tinkers with the system. Remember a lot of ratings went up when FIDE introduced the anti-Polgar idea of giving all female players (except the Polgar sisters) 100 rating points, to spite the Polgars for refusing to play female-only events. (FIDE would probably phrase that differently.) The 100 extra points rapidly dispersed through the system. Every time something like that is done, or you change "K", it will have an effect. All the numbers tell you at present is that Magnus has got better results than everyone else, and it doesn't matter if he's 3000, 10000 or 47.5, he will be higher than current players. You cannot compare with players from different era. 2900 is a fun target of course, so why not go for it.

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Re: Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

Post by Mick Norris » Sat Feb 05, 2022 9:31 pm

Magnus draws a Norwegian League game with Ostmoe losing 4.2 rating points in the process

chess24 report and photos
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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Wed Oct 18, 2023 7:45 pm

With Carlsen currently performing poorly in the October 2023 Qatar Masters, and Caruana romping to a third US Chess Championship title, there has been a swing of 18.7 points in the live rating list:

https://2700chess.com/

Caruana (2794.7) is now 'only' 35 rating points behind Carlsen (2829.0), surely the narrowest the gap has been between World numbers 1 and 2 for some time. 2900 must seem a long way off...

Keith Arkell
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Re: Carlsen targeting 2900 rating

Post by Keith Arkell » Wed Oct 18, 2023 8:39 pm

With the ripple of deflation I have spoken of for more than a decade having at last worked its way up to the top, 2850 is the new 2900.

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