Madrid Candidates 16th June to Tue 5th Jul 2022

[Mick Norris]

Chicken preview from Jan Gustafsson, Laurent Fressinet and Peter Heine Nielsen

They assessed Ding Liren, Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja and co. on current form, motivation, chances to win and openings, and also looked at the big questions: which winner would Magnus agree to play in a match, and who’s the biggest chicken?

[Mick Norris]

Chess Mind

Nepomniachtchi: He is strong enough to win - he won the last Candidates, after all - and he will have a large store of ideas from the work he did for his match with Carlsen. On the other hand, he got bruised pretty badly by Carlsen, and he may not have recovered his confidence. If he gets off to an excellent start he’ll have a shot, but I think he’s unlikely to win.

Radjabov: Virtually no chance.

Duda: He is a dangerous player, capable of beating anyone and everyone. I wouldn’t call him the favorite, but I would not be too surprised if he won the event.

Firouzja: When it comes to talent and strength, he is definitely one of the favorites. On paper, it’s between him, Ding Liren, and Fabiano Caruana. His most recent performance wasn’t fantastic, though, and he has shown nerves in high-pressure situations. Only 18 (he turns 19 on Sunday), his lack of experience may prove his undoing. If he doesn’t become the champion this time around, I’d expect him to be the favorite the next time around. He might win this time, too—hopefully it will come down to chess and not to some psychological disaster.

Caruana: If he can recover his best form, he is the favorite, period. Even if he’s only playing reasonably well, I expect him to be in the running to the end.

Nakamura: He was #2 in the world at one point, and he is the world’s #2 in rapid and #1 in blitz. He is capable of just about anything, and he is a great competitor. He is resilient, tricky, and confident, and if he gets off to a good start he’ll have a chance.

Rapport: Easily underestimated, he was #5 in the world a month ago and is still #8. He hasn’t won many elite events, and his penchant for offbeat openings makes it easy to underestimate him. I expect him to be in the middle-to-upper middle of the pack, but would be surprised to see him win.

Ding Liren: It’s hard to know what kind of form he’s in, as the slew of games he played a couple of months ago to qualify were low pressure games, and almost entirely against non-elite opposition. (Only Wei Yi was over 2700, if I recall correctly.) Nevertheless, he is the world’s #2 player at the moment, and is to my mind the co-favorite with Caruana.

In sum, if Caruana plays his best chess, he wins. If not, then he’s a co-favorite with Ding, with Firouzja having a chance if he can overcome his sometimes shaky nerves and his lack of experience. Duda and Nakamura are my dark horses, Nepo and Rapport are very unlikely to win but are strong enough to do it if everything goes right, and Radjabov…will not win.

Of course, predictions are nonsense - even my prediction about Radjabov is nonsense.

[Nick Burrows]

Overall consensus: Ding & Caruana favourites. Firouzja & Duda with chances. Naka, Rapport & Nepo need an excellent start. Radjabov 0 points

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I am surprised Duda's chances are being rated so highly. Can someone remind me what he has won to show that he has what it takes to win this?

Oh OK: "In April 2022, Duda won the Oslo Esports Cup ahead of Magnus Carlsen, Anish Giri, and Shakhriyar Mamedyarov."

Fair enough. But has he really achieved that step-change in playing strength that you would expect from a World Title Challenger?

[Matt Mackenzie]

Well he also ended Carlsen's 125 game unbeaten streak and all that.

(no I don't think he will win, but do expect a top half finish)

[Nick Burrows]

I am surprised Duda's chances are being rated so highly. Can someone remind me what he has won to show that he has what it takes to win this?

To quote Magnus Carlsen:

Huge congratulations to Duda for winning the World Cup. Considering the line of opponents that he beat in the last four rounds, never losing a game, and obviously never being in a must-win or desperate situation is a massive achievement. So he's a richly deserved winner."

He's had some good wins Vs Carlsen. He's exceptionally calm under pressure and difficult to beat.

[Tim Harding]

Surprisingly Duda is the lowest rated of the eight Candidates. I expect him to finish well above 8th and gain a lot of rating points.
Starting with two Whites gives him the opportunity to get off to a good start but even if he does I doubt he will win the tournament.

Certainly seven of the players are contenders to varying degrees while Radjabov is along for the ride. The Azeri is a marked man and all the others will be reckoning they need to score at least 1.5/2 against him.

[LawrenceCooper]

Surprisingly Duda is the lowest rated of the eight Candidates. I expect him to finish well above 8th and gain a lot of rating points.
Starting with two Whites gives him the opportunity to get off to a good start but even if he does I doubt he will win the tournament.

Certainly seven of the players are contenders to varying degrees while Radjabov is along for the ride. The Azeri is a marked man and all the others will be reckoning they need to score at least 1.5/2 against him.

That may work in his favour.

[Jonathan Rogers]

There seems to be consensus on the whole, though I would be somewhat surprised if the winner were neither of Ding or Caruana. There is an apparent experience/motivation to face Carlsen deficit elsewhere. Admittedly Nepo is hard to call, as an outsider looking in. His success in winning the last event, on his debut, seems to be under-discussed. But whether he really wants to face Carlsen again is something I find hard to guess, and he will probably be distracted due to events in Russia.

If Rapport wins with Ljubo as his second though, that would seem to call for a film to be made of the event!

[Tim Harding]

How about this scenario then, following Lawrence's point.
Maybe Radjabov wlll be underestimated after his travails in Stavanger (where I think the time limit was a problem for him) and somehow he wins the Candidates. Magnus declines to defend against one of the older generation and Radjabov becomes World Champion?
More likely it will come down to Caruana v Ding in the second cycle with Firouzja and Duda also doing quite well, and at some point Nakamura and Nepo' cause crucial upsets.

To get the prediction ball rolling, here is my offering for today:
Duda 1 Rapport 0
Ding 1 Nepo 0
Radjabov 0 Firouzja 1
and a draw in the all-American clash.

[Nick Burrows]

Duda 1/2 – 1/2 Rapport
Ding Liren 1/2 – 1/2 Nepomniachtchi
Caruana 1 – 0 Nakamura
Radjabov 1/2 – 1/2 Firouzja

[NickFaulks]

To get the prediction ball rolling, here is my offering for today:
Duda 1 Rapport 0
Ding 1 Nepo 0
Radjabov 0 Firouzja 1
and a draw in the all-American clash.

I don't have a view worth expressing, except that I am going for fewer than three decisive games.

[Tim Harding]

Duda 1/2 – 1/2 Rapport
Ding Liren 1/2 – 1/2 Nepomniachtchi
Caruana 1 – 0 Nakamura
Radjabov 1/2 – 1/2 Firouzja

Well it may be that the players will start cautiously with draws but there were two decisive results in round 1 in 2020: Nepo beat Giri (who may have stood better early on and should have held the ending), while Ding (badly affected by Covid arrangements) lost to Wang Hao. MVL drew with Caruana and Grischuk with Alekseenko.
So we have five different players this time, seven different nationallties instead of five, and probably more realistic contenders.
I agree that if there is a decisive result between the Americans, Caruana (especially as he has White) is the more likely winner (at classical time limits). He beat Hikaru in the 2016 US championship and the 2018 Sinquefield Cup.

[Chris Rice]

Here's a link for Round 1 on Chess24 - 2pm BST start time.

[NickFaulks]

Not merely to be argumentative, I have decided to go with four draws.