World championship match in Astana

[LawrenceCooper]

But not for long. Repetition and a draw in 39 moves.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Any predictions for the last classical game? Who would be favourite if it went to the tiebreaks?

[Jonathan Rogers]

probable draw, but it is a bit like the last game in the two Topalov matches - you could actually quite easily imagine either player winning it, albeit Ding more likely than Nepo. As to tie breaks, if this were to decide an ordinary tournament, I would probably back Nepo, but I think that all bets are off at the end of this long slugfest.

[Mick Norris]

Any predictions for the last classical game? Who would be favourite if it went to the tiebreaks?

I was surprised to see that Ding has a higher rapid rating than Nepo, so I think this is still a 50-50 match

[Tim Harding]

Any predictions for the last classical game? Who would be favourite if it went to the tiebreaks?

I was surprised to see that Ding has a higher rapid rating than Nepo, so I think this is still a 50-50 match

That statement is incorrect. Ding lost a handful of points at the Tata Steel which dropped him below Nepo'.
The FIDE ratings for April show Nepo at 2795 (his highest ever, from March 2023) and Ding 2788 but Ding's peak was 2811 and he had several months over 2800.

Moreover, wasn't Ding Liren the first GM to beat Magnus Carlsen in the rapid tiebreaks of a major tournament?
It was the Sinquefield Cup, Saint Louis 2019 if I recall correctly.

So, given that DIng has also White tomorrow, he should be considered favourite now perhaps.
Against that, he has never yet been ahead in this match.

[LawrenceCooper]

I was surprised to see that Ding has a higher rapid rating than Nepo, so I think this is still a 50-50 match

That statement is incorrect. Ding lost a handful of points at the Tata Steel which dropped him below Nepo'.
The FIDE ratings for April show Nepo at 2795 (his highest ever, from March 2023) and Ding 2788 but Ding's peak was 2811 and he had several months over 2800.

Are you confusing standard and rapid ratings? Ding has a rapid of 2829 and Nepo is 2761.

[Nick Ivell]

I reckon that Ding is slight favourite and I would be delighted if he won.

[Jonathan Rogers]

There has only once before been a decisive game in the last scheduled game when the match stood even (Topalov v Anand). Too many draws to count.

If Ding were to win tomorrow, it would also (I think) be the first time that the winner (in normal time) was only ahead for the first time after the last decisive game in the match. (Although Korchnoi made a valiant effort in 1978).

[Jonathan Rogers]

I am also backing Ding, though I have no problem with Nepo at all. It has been an extra element of this match, swinging one way or the other, whilst all the time there would be a certain contentment whatever happens.

[Mick Norris]

I was surprised to see that Ding has a higher rapid rating than Nepo, so I think this is still a 50-50 match

That statement is incorrect. Ding lost a handful of points at the Tata Steel which dropped him below Nepo'.
The FIDE ratings for April show Nepo at 2795 (his highest ever, from March 2023) and Ding 2788 but Ding's peak was 2811 and he had several months over 2800.

Are you confusing standard and rapid ratings? Ding has a rapid of 2829 and Nepo is 2761.

Exactly

[Tim Harding]

Ah yes, sorry, I overlooked the word "rapid" in Mick's statement.

Ding would have picked up quite a few points, I suppose, by winning two games against Magnus but I haven't checked.

In general I believe Ding is a much deeper and more rounded player than Nepo (who has always seemed much stronger than White and is reputedly dependent on others for opening novelties). It is Ding's psychological vulnerability at times which has kept this match so close, I think.

On another matter, is it widely known that Ian Nepomniachtchi bears (a version of) the name of a famous Czech saint (Saint John of Nepomuk)?
I don't recall hearing this mentioned in any chess commentary but of course I have only heard a fraction of it.

On the Charles Bridge in Prague there is a statue of the saint, who drowned when he was thrown from the bridge in 1393.

[LawrenceCooper]

I'm a bit concerned for Ding today (move 21) with black having just captured on g2.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I'm a bit concerned for Ding today (move 21) with black having just captured on g2.

Looking alright now 7 moves later after 28.Rc3. Ding now slightly ahead on the clock, but should be a draw. EDIT: Provided Ding works out he needs to stay active and not worry about being a pawn down in most lines.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Now at move 32. I would be nervous as White.

[Matt Mackenzie]

Still going on!

Now a R/3Ps v R/2Ps ending that *should* be drawn.