39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

The very latest International round up of English news.
Simon Ansell
Posts: 509
Joined: Tue May 05, 2009 10:27 am

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Simon Ansell » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:37 pm

Jonathan Rogers wrote:
Jonathan Rogers wrote:
Eoin Devane wrote:Has anyone any thoughts on Sam Collins' game? http://ugra-chess.com/liveboard?gameid= ... 371&tmnt=1

He's got a queen plus five pawns against two rooks, a knight and two pawns. I guess the plan's got to be to try and roll the three connected passers on the kingside through, but is he going to be able to do that? It seems he has to win to keep up any chance of the norm.
practical winning chances, I think. I'm glad he removed white's b2 pawn, just to make sure that white is left with a slightly depressing defence and no chance of anything else. But I doubt that even the computers can "tell" us the "right" result just yet.
I may have got carried away - 90% draw. White can presumably afford to give up a rook for those two pawns. Black needs his king much further up.
Didn't see it earlier, I would guess it's winning right now (after Black's 94th). But then I don't understand endgames either! Must be good practical chances for Sam at least.

Edit: I'm going to revise that to almost certainly winning for Black.
Last edited by Simon Ansell on Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Roger de Coverly
Posts: 19271
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 2:51 pm

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Roger de Coverly » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:38 pm

Keith Arkell wrote: Has the rating systen got a bit stretched?
Sometimes it's possible to do a direct comparison. In today's Dragon game we had Stellwagen (2635) v Jones (2576) reaching the same middle game position as Chandler (2565) v Mestel (2505) in 1986. So both players are 70 points higher and the difference in rating almost identical. Do we think that the move where Stellwagen varied from Chandler was an improvement?

One big difference is that Chandler was ranked 30 and Mestel 101. Today Stellwagen is ranked 116 and Jones 302.
Keith Arkell wrote:I certainly believe that the type and strength of events one plays in has a large bearing on one's rating
Are you thinking that if you only play elite events, that acts to protect a high rating (once you have achieved it)?

User avatar
Anthony Higgs
Posts: 74
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:31 pm
Location: Cloud Nine

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Anthony Higgs » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:51 pm

Collins has won. :)
http://www.horshamchessclub.org.uk - ECF Club of the Year 2010

Maxim Devereaux
Posts: 176
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2008 2:08 pm

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Maxim Devereaux » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:55 pm

Anthony Higgs wrote:Collins has won. :)
Yes, this is great.

He still needs a win against anyone tomorrow (or a draw with about a 2620) for the norm though... let's hope they get a favourable pairing - it might have been easier on him if Ireland had lost today :-/

Leonard Barden
Posts: 1671
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2008 11:21 am

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Leonard Barden » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:57 pm

The live ratings before today's games were (in round numbers) Carlsen 2818 (-8), Anand 2800, Topalov 2791 (-11).

Carlsen's loss today will presumably cost him another 4-5 points, so suddenly Anand's target of regaining the No1 spot, declared in an interview a few weeks back, suddenly looks a lot more realistic. They will probably meet head-to-head this autumn/winter in Bilbao (twice), Alekhine Memorial, London Classic, Tata Steel Wijk and Linares.

Alan Walton
Posts: 1327
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:33 pm
Location: Oldham

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Alan Walton » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:01 pm

Carlsen's lost today would cost him at least 6 points maybe seven as his expected score would be above 50%, so losing is a minimum of 5 points plus the extra

Ola Winfridsson
Posts: 324
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 12:26 pm

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Ola Winfridsson » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:03 pm

Keith and Alex: I think we can take that as read, without any disrespect to these very strong players. If you only play small APA tournaments against your peers, you're hardly ever likely to face unkwnown quantities. You will, in other words, know your opponents very well, so even if you're off form you can still do a certain amount of autopiloting. Furthermore, you'll hardly ever be forced to go all out for a win in a dead level position "to put food on the table the next day" (a situation which is much more likely in an open). Sofia rules only prohibits early draw offers, they're not prescribing reckless winning attempts!

And by the law of averages, everyone will occasionally drop half and even full points against opponents rated 400-500 points below them (we all do it!) - provided you regularly play such opposition. And these days, many of us patzers know a tremendous amount of opening theory and our general chess knowledge and understanding has improved, so we can often 'wing it' a good deal before the big elephants catch us out. A couple of years ago, Carlsen (then already well into the 2700s) had to concede a half point against someone rated 2100 in an open in Norway (Tromsø?), and if memory serves me right, he dropped another draw a few rounds later.
Last edited by Ola Winfridsson on Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Anthony Higgs
Posts: 74
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:31 pm
Location: Cloud Nine

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Anthony Higgs » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:17 pm

Ola Winfridsson wrote:A couple of years ago, Carlsen (then already well into the 2700s) had to concede a half point against someone rated 2100 in an open in Norway (Tromsø?), and if memory serves me right, he dropped another draw a few rounds later.
This one maybe: http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1469361
http://www.horshamchessclub.org.uk - ECF Club of the Year 2010

Maxim Devereaux
Posts: 176
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2008 2:08 pm

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Maxim Devereaux » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:33 pm

England have Czech Republic in the Open tomorrow.

Ireland have Singapore, which means Zhang Zhong (2582) for Sam, and needing to win for the norm, which is harsh, especially since the guy is playing pretty well (2650+ and only lost one game, to Jobava).

Still waiting on the women's pairings.

Alex Holowczak
Posts: 9085
Joined: Sat May 30, 2009 5:18 pm
Location: Oldbury, Worcestershire
Contact:

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Alex Holowczak » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:38 pm

Maxim Devereaux wrote:England have Czech Republic in the Open tomorrow.
Not quite, round 11 is 6am on Sunday morning!

Michael Jones
Posts: 642
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 12:37 pm

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Michael Jones » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:42 pm

Alex Holowczak wrote:Perhaps playing in closed APAs keeps your rating high. The lowest rating in those events is usually quite high, so their ratings won't be too dented. In the Olympiad though, they're thrown in against those IM patzers who are 400 points worse than them, who have absolutely nothing to lose.
Three of the players who have beaten Carlsen or Topalov (Jobava, Adams, Movsesian) are rated over 2700, and only Bluvshtein under 2600 - I'd hardly call any of them "IM patzers". If I recall correctly, the way the Elo system works means that a player with a rating 200 higher than his opponent would, on average, be expected to score 75% against that opponent. Given the number of games there must have been at the Olympiad with a 200+ rating difference, one would expect a fair few upsets. Of course, as with most statistics, we're led to believe that something happens more frequently because more attention is drawn to it when it does - "Carlsen loses" will make Chessbase headlines every time, "Carlsen beats someone rated 200 below him" will not.

Alex Holowczak
Posts: 9085
Joined: Sat May 30, 2009 5:18 pm
Location: Oldbury, Worcestershire
Contact:

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Alex Holowczak » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:47 pm

Michael Jones wrote:
Alex Holowczak wrote:Perhaps playing in closed APAs keeps your rating high. The lowest rating in those events is usually quite high, so their ratings won't be too dented. In the Olympiad though, they're thrown in against those IM patzers who are 400 points worse than them, who have absolutely nothing to lose.
Three of the players who have beaten Carlsen or Topalov (Jobava, Adams, Movsesian) are rated over 2700, and only Bluvshtein under 2600 - I'd hardly call any of them "IM patzers". If I recall correctly, the way the Elo system works means that a player with a rating 200 higher than his opponent would, on average, be expected to score 75% against that opponent. Given the number of games there must have been at the Olympiad with a 200+ rating difference, one would expect a fair few upsets. Of course, as with most statistics, we're led to believe that something happens more frequently because more attention is drawn to it when it does - "Carlsen loses" will make Chessbase headlines every time, "Carlsen beats someone rated 200 below him" will not.
I know they're all good players; I was being sarcastic with my IM patzers comment. Either way though, Carlsen has played a lot of opposition he'd expect to beat (even if Maths says he should lose to some of them sometimes), and hasn't beaten them.

Alex Holowczak
Posts: 9085
Joined: Sat May 30, 2009 5:18 pm
Location: Oldbury, Worcestershire
Contact:

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Alex Holowczak » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:51 pm

Ukraine have now moved ahead of Russia 322.5-321.5 on Olympiad-Sonneborn-Berger-Tie-Break without lowest result (Khanty-Mansiysk). A draw is certainly not guaranteed to win the gold for Ukraine.

Maxim Devereaux
Posts: 176
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2008 2:08 pm

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Maxim Devereaux » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:54 pm

There are some spectacular results in the Olympiad, aside from Carlsen losing three games.

Zeinab Mamedjarova, who I played when she was 2362 at New Year last year (and has a peak rating of 2384 from 2007), has since slumped to 2234, and just seems to have made a GM norm in the Women's Olympiad (8/10 vs. 2394, bumping her lowest to 2200), gaining 70 rating points in the process. :shock:

Untitled Algis Shukuraliev (2336) from Kyrgyzstan seems to have made a GM norm too, dropping his lowest rated opponent gives him 7/9 vs. 2395, which is also sufficient, and a gain of 50 rating points. :shock: :shock:

Women's pairings now up: England have Australia (also white on odds, like the men).

Ola Winfridsson
Posts: 324
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 12:26 pm

Re: 39th Olympiad Khanty-Mansiysk 2010 (the chess)

Post by Ola Winfridsson » Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:07 pm

Alex Holowczak wrote:I know they're all good players; I was being sarcastic with my IM patzers comment. Either way though, Carlsen has played a lot of opposition he'd expect to beat (even if Maths says he should lose to some of them sometimes), and hasn't beaten them.
Yes, that's indeed true. Perhaps this can partly be explained by looking at his openings. I have a feeling that he's been at pains not to reveal any of his opening secrets (he's got some important tournaments coming up this autumn, and Norway didn't have any real expectations of medals): a Caro-Kann today, North Sea Defence against Adams, Closed Sicilian against Vallejo-Pons and so on.

Post Reply