Who will win the 2013 Candidates?

[Mick Norris]

I thought a separate thread sensible to move away from discussion of games in progress

4 rounds down, 10 to go, what have we learned? I'll give my view, although of little value!

Carlsen and Aronian are in shape to battle it out

We can rule out Gelfand and Ivanchuk already, and Grischuk too as his time trouble will defeat him

Svidler looks fantastically well prepared so far, and may be an outside bet

I'm not sure about Radjabov, especially as always with white, but he is dangerous with black, so still an outside chance

Kramnik looks in decent shape, a start of 4 draws of which 3 are with black is OK, but he is already 2 wins behind the front 2, so either needs to beat them, or start beating everyone else - third favourite now I think

Energy levels may be key, of course, and favour the fitter (younger?) players

[Ray Sayers]

Well, predictably, Carlsen has to be favourite. He wasn't happy with his firt two games but still has 3/4! He is also young, fit and able to grind out results from the middle of the tournament when people start to tire.

But it's not forgone; Aronian looks good too. Kramnik is dangerous, though he seems to be stuck in a draw rut at the moment.

Boring prediction isn't it. It's easier to say who it won't be:

Ivanchuck
Gelfand
Radjabov (draws too many games with white)
Grischuk

I really like Svidler. But I am not sure he will win. He may come close though.

Edit, sorry I didn't really read your post the first time and I seem to have repeated it.

[MartinCarpenter]

Kramnik looking good for his presumed target +3/4 I think? 3 blacks against quite serious opposition negotiated in what looked like total comfort. The draw with white against Grischuk is the only really even vaguely soft result.

The question is perhaps whether Aronian/Carlsen will get more than that. Quite possible.

[Graham Borrowdale]

I think it is quite likely that Kramnik will lose a game, and I think he will not win enough games against the mid-field and back-markers to challenge. I have a feeling that Carlsen will win too many games against the back-markers, and might well win his white game against Aronian, which will ultimately prove to be decisive for the event.
I would like to be proved wrong, but the event already looks to have an inevitability about it.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

It may be more a question of whether Carlsen loses a game or fails to win enough. Who are the most likely to have chances of beating him? I do think Aronian and Kramnik will be his closest challengers, and Svidler does look well-prepared. If Svidler can keep up with Carlsen, they play in the last round, though Carlsen has White.

[Jonathan Bryant]

I would like to be proved wrong, but the event already looks to have an inevitability about it.

You may not be proved wrong, but I think it's too early to count Kramnik out - for exactly the reasons that Martin outlines above.

Grischuk has the ability to mess things up for other people but no more than that. Svidler ... well, I'd love him to do well but I don't - yet - see it.

[Angus French]

Carlsen seems a class apart to me and I’m wondering by how many points he will win.

I’d like to see Svidler do well as it’s apparent he’s worked hard for the tournament. Incidentally, Svidler is the only player at the Candidates who also played in the FIDE World Championships of 2005 (San Luis) and 2007 (Mexico City), both also eight-player, double round-robins.

[Jonathan Rogers]

Er, Carlsen? i think that the only slight doubts before the event would be whether Carlsen would win anywhere near as many games from level/slightly worse positions as Black, and from relatively innocuous systems as White, against this 2750+ level of opposition as he does against 2650-2750 opposition. And the answer so far would seem to be yes. The likes of Gelfand are apparently liable to self-destruct under his gaze and determination just as much as, say, the likes of Ivan Sokolov.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Just noticed this interview with the views of John Nunn:

http://www.chessbase.com/Home/TabId/211 ... 00313.aspx

Maybe this would be a good thread to deposit links to other views published around the internet?

[Ray Sayers]

I was really impressed by the way Carlsen got out of trouble against Chucky.

I mean, I'm not sure why he got into trouble in the first place; I think he would have been better defending a Queen's Gambit or QID against someone so unpredictable. But after black dropped the e7 pawn, Carlsen just sat there like a rock and didn't panic. Whereas in some of the other games so far, panic has been quite common!

[Colin S Crouch]

Only Aronian or Carlsen has a realistic chance of reaching +4.

The same can be said, with less certainty, about +3.

If we are talking about +2, the score which other players might be expected to reach, then we are talking about:
Either Carlsen or Aronian drawing every time (unlikely?)
Or Carlsen or Aronian both losing a game (who is going to be brave enough to predict this?)
Or a mixture of the two (+1 -1 for one player; and draws every time for the other).

The answer seems to be Carlsen or Aronian. At the moment, move 24, Carlsen is starting to press against Svidler.

Good enough answer? Well, things chance all the time. Who could have predicted what was happening in round 5?

[Colin S Crouch]

An update, less than half an hour later. Looks like Aronian is by now slightly better against Radjabov.

There are definitely two players in the contest, but, it seems, only two.

[Jonathan Bryant]

I think it's too early to count Kramnik out....

Not any more.

[MartinCarpenter]

Well still not utterly impossible for Kramnik (or other people) but he really did need at least one those 'nearly' wins to actually win to have a decent chance. Especially the Aronian one of course.

Mind you if Carlsen/Aronian keep going like this it'll take ~+6/7 to win the thing and I doubt he'd ever even have aimed for that.

[Greg Breed]

Standings after 6 rounds:
1. GM Carlsen Magnus NOR 2872 – 4.5
2. GM Aronian Levon ARM 2809 – 4.5
3. GM Svidler Peter RUS 2747 – 3
4. GM Kramnik Vladimir RUS 2810 – 3
5. GM Radjabov Teimour AZE 2793 – 2.5
6. GM Grischuk Alexander RUS 2764 – 2.5
7. GM Ivanchuk Vassily UKR 2757 – 2
8. GM Gelfand Boris ISR 2740 – 2

Today is the second rest day in London. The 7th round will be played on Saturday, March 23rd:
Carlsen v Radjabov
Aronian v Grischuk
Gelfand v Kramnik
Ivanchuk v Svidler