Who will win the 2013 Candidates?

[John McKenna]

Justin Horton>Aronian... nine when the Soviet Union was dissolved?<
OK, I'll give you that but the influence of Soviet institutions did not dissolve immediately in 1991, Dec.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

There's a reason why Gelfand and Ivanchuk are still playing in these elite events 20 years on. They got a full Soviet chess education that was immediately denied to everybody else (although others, of course, got a partial chess upbringing).

I would include Kramnik in that. He was from the Botvinnik school of chess after all. The others, I agree, are more products of the 90s or later. Comparing their chess education to people like Caruana and Nakamura would be interesting. Grischuk, slightly younger than Aronian, is another player midway between the older and younger generations. It will also be interesting to see what the next Candidates tournament looks like (especially if it includes Anand, though the question of retirement does hang over the older players).

Going back to who's going to win. Well, it will be all over tomorrow if Kramnik wins and Carlsen fails to beat Radjabov with Black - which is hardly and impossibility.

On a personal level I'd be delighted if Kramnik qualifies for the match with Anand - anybody who plays the Berlin is alright be me. As an observer of the chess world, however, I'd have to agree that someone who is head and shoulders above his contemporaries on rating and yet who is not World Champion is rather problematic.

We should wait and see what happens. Kramnik may crack under the pressure and Carlsen may find the pressure lifting off him and step up a gear (he sometimes plays better when coming from behind to win, though that didn't work out for the London Chess Classic 2011, when Kramnik stayed ahead). I think the Kramnik-Gelfand game and the opening will be particularly interesting. Gelfand is actually very hard to beat when he has Black, Carlsen did well to win his game against Gelfand. It will be interesting to see what approach Kramnik takes. He should just ignore everything else and concentrate on winning both his last two games, which would give a pleasing symmetry to his results (two draws against Carlsen, win and draw against everyone else).

[Mick Norris]

Carlsen will have a better tiebreak than Kramnik if he catches him as he will have won more games (unless Carlsen draws and Kramnik loses, in which case it all gets very complicated again), so the pressure is on both of them

Kramnik won't find beating Gelfand easy, nor Ivanchuk (if the right version turns up )

Radjabov and Svidler will both presumably play for a draw with Carlsen

No idea what will happen, but exciting and an excellent tournament whatever happens, well done to all involved

[JustinHorton]

Grischuk, slightly younger than Aronian, is another player midway between the older and younger generations.

Thing about Grischuk is, he's spent an awful lot of time playing poker.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I suspect if Kramnik was allowed to pick someone to play with with white from the field, he would pick Gelfand. Partly because of their ages and history, and partly because Kramnik is the worlds leading Grunfeld killer.

The opening was fascinating today. A very early e3 which the commentators said was very rare, and Kramnik sidestepped the Grunfeld mainlines and got a nice position, but Gelfand defended really well.

Fingers crossed for another exciting day!

It was that and some! Who was there today, and is anyone here going tomorrow?

It looks like both Kramnik and Carlsen will have to keep their options open as long as possible in the last round, as both may need to go for a win depending on what is happening in the other game. Which could make for some interesting play as one or the other may wait to see what is happening in the other game. Lots could happen, but it does genuinely feel completely unpredictable what may happen tomorrow.

In terms of openings, what is Kramnik likely to play as Black against Ivanchuk to try and win? And what is the opening likely to be for Carlsen against Svidler?

[David Robertson]

In terms of openings, what is Kramnik likely to play as Black against Ivanchuk to try and win? And what is the opening likely to be for Carlsen against Svidler?

Hard to know really.

I think if Chucky opens 1.e4, Kramnik will want to drag him into a Two Knights (Traxler) with a theoretical conversation on the merits of 5. Nxf7 Bxf2+. In Carlsen's case, I'm pretty sure he'll punt the Evans; or perhaps the double Muzio

[Christopher Kreuzer]

In terms of openings, what is Kramnik likely to play as Black against Ivanchuk to try and win? And what is the opening likely to be for Carlsen against Svidler?

Hard to know really.

I think if Chucky opens 1.e4, Kramnik will want to drag him into a Two Knights (Traxler) with a theoretical conversation on the merits of 5. Nxf7 Bxf2+. In Carlsen's case, I'm pretty sure he'll punt the Evans; or perhaps the double Muzio

Do I detect a hint of humour here?

[Ray Sayers]

What a difference that Carlsen win makes.

Assuming Carlsen doen't lose as White (and if Kramnik draws, it is hard to see it) Kramnik now effectively has to win as Black. Unfortunately, Kramniks' standard defences against 1. e4 (Petroff, Berlin) allow white to pretty much draw if he wants to. (I know Kramnik won v Grischuk but that was due to a horrific blunder and Kramnik admitted that was his first Berlin win in classical chess).

Carlsen will probably aim to get an edge then watch Kramnik. If Kramnik wins (probably on time - have you noticed all of Chuckys' losses have been on time?) then Carlsen will put on the squeeze. Chucky has only lost on time, so if he can avoid that, Carlsen can offer a draw.

But of course Svidler is a fine player and may have something to say about it.

[John McKenna]

Four draws in the final round but Ivanchuk may throw his spanner in the works and then his game against Kramnik could end with a whimper or a huge bang!

[Mick Norris]

In terms of openings, what is Kramnik likely to play as Black against Ivanchuk to try and win? And what is the opening likely to be for Carlsen against Svidler?

Any idea what Chucky will play? Does he have any idea himself?

Unlike the previous time they played, Svidler is confident and should acquit himself well - if they get into an ending, however, he said yesterday he is not as good as Carlsen

I assume Carlsen will do whatever he has to, rather than being overtaken by nerves or whatever afflicted him against Ivanchuk

[Clive Blackburn]

In terms of openings, what is Kramnik likely to play as Black against Ivanchuk to try and win? And what is the opening likely to be for Carlsen against Svidler?

Hard to know really.

I think if Chucky opens 1.e4, Kramnik will want to drag him into a Two Knights (Traxler) with a theoretical conversation on the merits of 5. Nxf7 Bxf2+. In Carlsen's case, I'm pretty sure he'll punt the Evans; or perhaps the double Muzio

Do I detect a hint of humour here?

I think that Christopher should have delayed posting this for a couple of minutes, so that the date stamp was 1st April

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I think that Christopher should have delayed posting this for a couple of minutes, so that the date stamp was 1st April

But it wasn't my joke! And I'm ashamed to admit I fell briefly for the Kramnik joke in another thread, before realising what day it was.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

So, predictions. I'll take it slightly more seriously than David

I am expecting Vlad's friend and former second Peter to hold Magnus to a draw. Possibly in an English Anti-Grunfeld.

I'd play e4 against Kramnik if I was Chucky, unless I had serious ammunition in the Nimzo. The majority of Kramnik's anti-e4 repetoire is incredibly solid. With apologies to Jonathon Bryant, I don't think Chucky is the kind of player you can hope to beat in the Berlin ending. So Vlad has to try a secondary line. He played the Sicilian when he was young, but more recently has used the Pirc against lower rated opposition, I am guessing he will wheel it out for the must win game today. It is quite likely to result in a decisive game, but I am really unsure which way.

Or possibly something completely different . But I am looking forward to a day of high tension, I'd be surprised if we didn't see at least one result changing mistake on the top two boards.

The alternative strategy is to play something flexible and non-committal, see if Ivanchuk sinks into deep thought, watch how Carlsen's game goes, and ramp up the psychological pressure. That can backfire (it kind of backfired yesterday), but so can getting into fierce complications trying to win. Ivanchuk's five losses (all on time) were with the Black pieces four times and the White pieces once. He has one win with White and one with Black. I wish I could remember how solid his draws were!

I've also been looking again at the Kramnik-Gelfand game. There are passages of play that I still don't understand at all, though I'm sure a computer would help. At the time I was puzzled by Black's Bg4 (wondering why f3 didn't work in reply). Anyway, enough time to read about that later. Today is all about two games - I hope those boards are put in suitable places in the board layout (though I presume where each game is held is fixed and has been since the start to ensure the players spend equal times on different boards).

[Jonathan Bryant]

I'd play e4 against Kramnik if I was Chucky, unless I had serious ammunition in the Nimzo. The majority of Kramnik's anti-e4 repetoire is incredibly solid. With apologies to Jonathon Bryant, I don't think Chucky is the kind of player you can hope to beat in the Berlin ending.

Sadly, I don't see a Berlin today either - although it's worth noting that one of the reasons why Vlad never won with it before is because he rarely tries (unlike Aronian, say).

My guess would be a classical Sicilian, or whatever that line's called when you go ... d6, ... Nf6 and ... Nc6 with a later ... e6 and ... Be7.

[Nick Ivell]

A Scheveningen? Do people play chess like that any more?

I recall a world championship match in 1993 which was full of Sozin Sicilians. It was good for the game.