Candidates 2014

[Mick Norris]

Emboldened by my (extremely rare) 4/4 guesses in round three, here are my round four predictions. With the likely bottom two markers playing each other and the current top two playing each other, this should be the one of most interesting/important rounds in the first leg.

Anand v Kramnik

Presumably 1 d4 given Anand's continuing ailments v Berlin and his choices v Anand in 2008. But his prep hasn't continued apace since then. Kramnik to equalise after impressive prep and to draw. He will be happy to stay just half a point behind, having played three Blacks and having won the most impressive (decisive) game so far

Aronian v Svidler

Svidler did as much as anyone to stop Aronian in London last year: a comfortable draw with Black with an opening novelty in exactly the same round, when Aronian had the sole lead, and a win in the second half. This year it is Aronian playing catch-up so far and this is a good example of a must-win game for Aronian if he is to have winning chances in this event. It would not be the form result so far, but I will back Aronian to win this one - Svidler will struggle to come up with another clean equaliser in the opening, and a more dynamic game will suit Aronian's mood.

Karjakin v Topalov

I think this will be decisive - chances of Open Sicilian, after all - but it could go either way. I'll say 1-0 though.

Mamedyarov v Andreikin

I think that Mamedyarov wil make it a great day with White, and will be third player to overtake his opponent by beating him. 1-0. It still might be the only game he wins though.

Karjakin opening c4 and drawing spoiled it for you

[Mick Norris]

Tomorrow's pairings

SNo. Name FED Res. Name FED SNo.
1 GM Andreikin Dmitry RUS - GM Anand Viswanathan IND 6
2 GM Karjakin Sergey RUS - GM Mamedyarov Shakhriyar AZE 5
3 GM Svidler Peter RUS - GM Topalov Veselin BUL 8
4 GM Kramnik Vladimir RUS - GM Aronian Levon ARM 7

The last being the most important game so far?

[Colin S Crouch]

Results after four rounds:

+2 Anand
+1 Kramnik, Aronian
= Topalov, Svidler
-1 Karjakin, Mamedjarov
-2 Andreikin

A truly impressive win by Aronian, taking a degree of risk, but then outplaying his opponent after a piece sacrifice.
Tommorow, Kramnik - Aronian, and after that we will have a clearer indication as to who the main contenders are. Of course, if Anand were to beat Andreikin, currently the bottom-ranker, and the other game ended up as a draw, Anand would then become a full point ahead of anyone else. It would only then that we could speculate as to whether Anand could win the tournament.

[Jonathan Rogers]

So the third in my series of predictions, with just a 12.5% error rate so far! Free on this forum, in case you can't actually watch the games tomorrow!

1 GM Andreikin Dmitry RUS - GM Anand Viswanathan IND 6

A difficult call. One has the impression that Andreikin has the game to halve out most if not all his Whites, at the very least. From Anand's perpective he will not have forgotten San Luis, where he started with 2.5/3 but crashed with Black to Kasimdjhanov and never caught up with Topalov thereafter. So he will more likely play to win only if it does not involve significant risk and will bear in mind that he is the only Black winner so far as it is. If Andreikin continues to play good classical chess, and avoids the Tromp or similar, he can slow Anand down a bit with a draw.

2 GM Karjakin Sergey RUS - GM Mamedyarov Shakhriyar AZE 5

Somehow the only game of Karjakin's which anyone is likely to remember so far has been his loss to Kramnik. Looking at the questions posed in the press conferences online, the Russian players may feel some pressure from the media to win more games - only two so far, though Kramnik (with 3/4 Blacks so far) has of course been very impressive with "just" +1. White v Mamed is a clear must-win if Karjakin is to do anything in this event, and it may be pushing it to say that Mamed is back to form just by virtue of a time trouble win today. Again, if Karjakin plays 1 e4, I predict 1-0 but another English will not apply the same sort of pressure. He doesn't have the squeezing game of Kramnik, or Carlsen ...

3 GM Svidler Peter RUS - GM Topalov Veselin BUL 8

Odd to think that Topalov should be the only player to draw all his games so far. Round 5 with Black v Svidler will bring back nice memories though - they also played in this round, with the same colours, in San Luis when they were the two leaders (Svidler on 3/4, Topalov with 3.5/4) and Topalov won after playing a dangerous but risky new idea in the opening. However, he was already flying then and Black v Svidler is unlikely to be anyone's first win in any event. Svidler to apply pressure but draw

4 GM Kramnik Vladimir RUS - GM Aronian Levon ARM 7

Both players have saved a game through very clever defence so far, and of course Aronian did the same against Kramnik - also in this exact same round with the same colours - last year. I am not sure that Kramnik will want to play against a variation of QGD, but will he break Aronian with his Catalan? Unless Kramnik has a very big idea up his sleeve, I think this will be another game of White pressure but draw

[Jonathan Bryant]

Yes, [Aronian-Svidler] is starting to look like an 1830s Evans Gambit..

I was thinking it was more like a 1990s game than a 19th century game ... but it turned in to one for sure.



Today Kramnik - Aronian looks like the sort of thing I might see in the lower divisions of the Surrey League

[Roger de Coverly]

Today Kramnik - Aronian looks like the sort of thing I might see in the lower divisions of the Surrey League

I suppose with the top players knowing everything about the more conventional structures, trying to make Stonewall attack structures work has to be worth a try. It's something a number of them are doing, there was Aronian himself in round 2 and Svidler tried something similar as a middle game idea in London. In lower league divisions, just teaching players to use the Kings Indian should be enough, not that it would work in the Candidates.

I am reminded of a game from the 2011 British Championships. It was Short v Wells and started 1. b3 d5 2. Bb2 c5 3. e3 a6 . I was rather hoping we would see 4. f4 and learn how the Bird's should be played. Instead Nigel went Nf3 and d4 with play along the lines of a Queens Indian in reverse.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I am reminded of a game from the 2011 British Championships. It was Short v Wells and started 1. b3 d5 2. Bb2 c5 3. e3 a6 . I was rather hoping we would see 4. f4 and learn how the Bird's should be played. Instead Nigel went Nf3 and d4 with play along the lines of a Queens Indian in reverse.

Short won that one:

http://www.britishchess2011.com/videos.htm#r10

[PeterFarr]

Today Kramnik - Aronian looks like the sort of thing I might see in the lower divisions of the Surrey League

And now after 20.Qh5 by Kramnik, we are into bottom board, late replacement, a bloke someone met in a pub territory.

[Barry Sandercock]

Peter Farr wrote:
After 20.Qh5 by Kramnik,we are into bottom board.

But bottom board would not have got this far against Aronian !

[Mick Norris]

g5 and b5 from Aronian - interesting

[Chris Rice]

U get the feeling that Kramnik's next move might turn out to be a critical moment in the tournament.

[Colin S Crouch]

A difficult and complicated round to assess.

Karjakin and Mamedjarov ended up in a drawn rook and pawn ending, but it the other games, it just seemed sharp and obscure. The computer assessments seemed to vary move by nove, but without any obvious blunders.

The first player to make a real impact for victory seemed to be Svidler. He spent a lot of time in the opening, while Topalov moved quickly, clearly confident enough in a sharp opening line. The players reached an endgame with RBB v RBN. Early on, Svidler's king seemed to be stuck on the back rank, but he gradually eased up his position. Now Topalov looks to be in really serious trouble, with Svidler's rook and bishop pair attacking an exposed king.

Aronian is also now in serious trouble, the stonewall pawn structure having been blown up though tactics, and Kramnik now having an almighty fianchettoed bishop on b2.

It looked like Andreikin was going to be close to equal at around move 25, but his position is starting to fade. Anand needs to win this one to be fully comfortable, as Kramnik is not far behind.

(A quick PS - I am not too shore about Anand's bishop for knight excange on f3. The bishop looked useful.)

[Christopher Kreuzer]

U get the feeling that Kramnik's next move might turn out to be a critical moment in the tournament.

That is a crazy game. Svidler seems to be getting the better of Topalov. Other games either drawn or will be.

EDIT: Fascinating body language from Kramnik and Aronian. Both very tense (but also trying to stay calm) as befits such a critical moment.

[Colin S Crouch]

But, after a necessary queen sacrifice, perhaps Aronian's position is just about alive.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Some time trouble blunders in Kramnik-Aronian. It seems 35.Rg1 would have won for Kramnik (probably because taking the other rook is now not with check). They are now in a rook and pawn endgame with Kramnik a pawn up. Aronian may have escaped by the skin of his teeth there.