World Cup Baku 10 September to 4 October 2015

[Mick Norris]

Qualifiers from Asian Continental now added, list almost complete

Players

Official website

[MJMcCready]

Having lived there, I am curious to see Armenian Lev Aronian on the list. I'm sure the security will do their job but he will get dirty looks from the audience that's for sure.

[soheil_hooshdaran]

Thanks god two of my friends have also been qualified.

[David Sedgwick]

Having lived there, I am curious to see Armenian Lev Aronian on the list. I'm sure the security will do their job but he will get dirty looks from the audience that's for sure.

There has been quite a lot of comment about this on other forums. Serzh Sargsian, President of both Armenia (the country) and the Armenian Chess Federation, has explicitly stated that he wants Aronian and the other qualified Armenians to go. They are duly doing so.

[MJMcCready]

The Azeris are very good with security as it is more or less a police state and from what I learned whilst there Aronian is friends with the top Azeri players as they have shared coaches in the past and so on. I did go to the Grand Prix there last year and in truth there are only a few spectators so I'd be surprised if an incident occurred at the upcoming world cup. As I am sure you know the Armenian team has refused to play in the Olympiad there next year.

The sad thing is that if the Armenian players did decide to go, went out of the hotel (which I am sure they wouldn't) and went for a walk along the boulevard, say, no one would recognize them, they would have nothing to worry about.

[David Sedgwick]

As I am sure you know the Armenian team has refused to play in the Olympiad there next year.

I didn't know that that was a definite decision. However, I'm not surprised.

[NickFaulks]

I didn't know that that was a definite decision.

I'm not convinced that it is, or at least that it cannot be reversed. First we shall see how the World Cup goes.

[MJMcCready]

They refused to play as soon as its announced but let's hope we see them there.

[David Blower]

Hopefully Michael Adams can qualify for the candidates tournament.

[Mick Norris]

SCHEDULE

10th September:
° 18h00: Technical informational meeting for the participants, arbiters and officials (Fairmont Hotel)
° 19h30: Opening Ceremony at the Mugham Center. The transport from the technical meeting to the opening ceremony will be provided by the organizers.
11th September: Round 1, game 1
12th September: Round 1, game 2
13th September: Tie-break day
14th September: Round 2, game 1
15th September: Round 2, game 2
16th September: Tie break day
17th September: Round 3, game 1
18th September: Round 3, game 2
19th September: Tie break day
20th September: Round 4, game 1
21st September: Round 4, game 2
22nd September: Tie break day
23rd September: Round 5, game 1
24th September: Round 5, game 2
25th September: Tie break day
26th September: Free day on organizers' cost
27th September: Round 6, game 1
28th September: Round 6, game 2
29th September: Tie break day
30th September: Free day
1st October: Round 7, game 1
2nd October: Round 7, game 2
3rd October: Round 7, game 3
4th October: Round 7, game 4
5th October: Tie break day and closing ceremony on the evening

All games begin at 15h00 at the Fairmont Hotel.

[Mick Norris]

What I am assuming is the final list of qualifiers, looks like Inarkiev got the last Presidential Nomination

FIDE list

Full pairing tree

Looks like Topalov is playing, which means he is almost certain to qualify for the Candidates by rating

[Mick Norris]

Fun look at each player's odds
chessbynumbers

[NickFaulks]

Fun look at each player's odds
chessbynumbers

According to the table at the bottom, they believe that a 50 point rating advantage gives a player a 67% chance of advancing. I've got my doubts about that - it's unclear how they handle draws.

[Tai Pruce-Zimmerman]

Fun look at each player's odds
chessbynumbers

According to the table at the bottom, they believe that a 50 point rating advantage gives a player a 67% chance of advancing. I've got my doubts about that - it's unclear how they handle draws.

Draw rate in standard games is assumed to peak (with effectively even opponents after factoring in a white advantage of 40 ELO) at 65%, and drop as the rating differential increases. Assumed draw rate in rapid games is 2/3 the standard draw rate for same ratings.

So a player with a 50 point edge over their opponent would start with two games, one as white (effective 90 point edge; 39% win, 14% loss, 47% draw) and one as black (effective 10 point edge, 20% win, 17% loss, 63% draw). This results in a 42% chance of winning the match in standard games (1.5/2 or 2/2), 39% chance of drawing the standard games and advancing to rapids, and a 19% chance of losing the match in standard games.

Similar calculations on the first pair of rapids (46% win, 21% lose, 33% draw with white; +29% -27% =44% with black) give a 44% chance of winning the two game rapid mini-match, and a 33% chance of drawing and playing two more rapid games. If drawn, repeat calculations for second rapid match, if that's drawn repeat same basic format for two blitz games (at +51% -26% =23% with white and +36% -33% =31% with black). If that mini-match is drawn we just use the core ELO differential to say that 50 ELO is worth a score of 57%, and assume that the higher rated player therefore wins the armeggedon match 57% of the time if it gets there.

Simple probability tree brings it all together. 42% chance to win standard mini-match PLUS 17% (39% chance of 1/2 in standard games * 44% chance of winning first rapid mini-match = 17%) chance of reaching and then winning first rapid mini-match PLUS etcetera and we end up with a net 67% chance of the higher rated player advancing when the ELO gap is 50.

[Reg Clucas]

Full pairing tree

That link doesn't work - try this one