WC Match 2016 - New York 10-30 November

[MartinCarpenter]

Well you've still got both those rooks to bother that centralised king with I suppose. Carlsen is typically very good at this sort of ending of course.

[JustinHorton]

Try to win the e5 pawn, or try to break through on the queenside with b4 and get my a-pawn up the board.

Yeah I'm thinking a-pawn

[David Robertson]

Chris Rice has paid $75 for this. We're lucky, kind of

[LawrenceCooper]

Well you've still got both those rooks to bother that centralised king with I suppose. Carlsen is typically very good at this sort of ending of course.

I think he'll be delighted to get such a promising ending assuming the missed chances in rounds 3 & 4 aren't still planting doubt in his mind about being able to convert against Karjakin.

[JustinHorton]

I'm curious to know whether Karjakin has any inkling of what he missed earlier. It'd prey on the mind of even someone of his mental strength.

[Roger de Coverly]

I'm curious to know whether Karjakin has any inkling of what he missed earlier.

It's unlikely that he missed the Nxf2 idea. More likely that either he didn't want an immediate draw or that he didn't want to enter a messy position as there are moves to avoid the repetition as demonstrated by Svidler and Gustafsson on chess24.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

This might go on for a while. What is the time control in the later stages of a game in this match?

Found it:

100 minutes in 40 moves +
50 minutes in 20 moves +
15 minutes all moves +
30 seconds for each move
starting from move 1

So potentially 15 minutes with 30 second increment if they use up all their time by move 60. Might be difficult for Karjakin to hold if the position needs lots of thought (conversely, it can also be difficult to win).

[AustinElliott]

I'm presuming Carlsen's winning chances depend on playing b5 at some point? Where do his pieces have to be to make it work? And where does he need Karjakin's to be?

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Does f3 and g4 at any point also help?

[Roger Lancaster]

I think you're both right in that Carlsen has to keep both possibilities open. Once he relinquishes (or commits to) one, for example by playing f2-f4 or even a premature b4-b5, the defender's task becomes much easier.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

He has committed to f3 by playing that, but can dilly dally a bit more and wait for the right moment to break through. Will be very difficult to win, though Karjakin will need to defend carefully and not get complacent.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

This is really boring. Maybe Carlsen is hoping Karjakin will fall asleep?

[AustinElliott]

It is all a bit cagey. Speaking heretically... if this was a game between two 160-170 players, with the same moves, I might be thinking White didn't actually have a plan for how he was going to try to win this. Anyone know what Rd4-d2 was for, for instance?

EDIT: 54. Rb3 - surely Carlsen has to play b5 next move if he's trying for a win?

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I think White can now make progress on the kingside. For how long, I'm not sure.

EDIT: Wow. According to the engines, Karjakin just blundered with 56...Rhh7 and Carlsen immediately whipped out 57.b5 and is going for the win now.

(Suicide rook shuffling, someone called it in the comments on Chessbomb.)

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Still, they will both be in 15 minutes and 30s/move territory heading into what still looks to be a very complicated endgame. White is unlikely to lose, but could still slip and allow a draw.

EDIT: If Carlsen draws this, he will be distraught. Massive chance here. Not easy, though.