2018 World Championship in London

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David Sedgwick
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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by David Sedgwick » Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:06 pm

Barry Sandercock wrote:
Sat Nov 24, 2018 4:50 pm
Magnus is a pawn up, but is that any good in an opposite colour \bishop ending ?
Carlsen can certainly try to make something of it. I am really struggling to understand why Caruana played 27 ... Kf8.

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JustinHorton
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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by JustinHorton » Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:10 pm

Well it wouldn't be the first time that an American challenger in a bishop ending etc etc etc
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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:14 pm

MrDodgy in the Chess24 feed says "if the universe had wanted twelve draws, then Anish would have won the Candidates".

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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by Tim Harding » Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:45 pm

David Sedgwick wrote:
Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:06 pm
[ I am really struggling to understand why Caruana played 27 ... Kf8.
Surely Caruana just thought (and proved) that it was the simplest and quickest route to the half point.

He spent 13 minutes deciding to do it; most of his remaining moves took a minute or less.
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JustinHorton
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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by JustinHorton » Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:52 pm

Oddly, Chessbomb are yet to notice the game has ended, perhaps having lost their concentration.
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David Sedgwick
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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by David Sedgwick » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:02 pm

Tim Harding wrote:
Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:45 pm
David Sedgwick wrote:
Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:06 pm
I am really struggling to understand why Caruana played 27 ... Kf8.
Surely Caruana just thought (and proved) that it was the simplest and quickest route to the half point.

He spent 13 minutes deciding to do it; most of his remaining moves took a minute or less.
It was a salutary reminder that I should stick to arbiting.

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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by Tim Harding » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:10 pm

It's probably good for arbiters to keep playing occasionally, though: "look at life from both sides now..."
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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:18 pm

IM Jack Rudd wrote:
Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:14 pm
MrDodgy in the Chess24 feed says "if the universe had wanted twelve draws, then Anish would have won the Candidates".
You can't do that just drawing games, though :)
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David Sedgwick
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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by David Sedgwick » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:44 pm

Tim Harding wrote:
Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:10 pm
It's probably good for arbiters to keep playing occasionally, though: "look at life from both sides now..."
Playing, yes. Commenting on the play of the World Championship Challenger ...

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sat Nov 24, 2018 7:40 pm

Matthew Turner wrote:
Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:28 am
Surely, Magnus is playing the best player that he has played in a World Championship match and finding it the most difficult. Why is that a surprise? I thought it was a 50/50 match at the start and nothing seems to have changed.
Has Caruana's play been 'better' than that of Karjakin and Anand in the previous three matches that Carlsen played in? I am not convinced that Caruana has shown himself to be a better player than Carlsen, but it seems that even '2018' Carlsen is very difficult to beat in a match. Has Carlsen's play been poor in this match? I don't think we can really say that either.

It has been tense and close. Nerves of steel needed on Monday: will Caruana go for it and try and spring a surprise, or will both players steer towards a draw if they fail to gain anything from the opening?

Does anyone know what odds were available at the start of the match for 12 consecutive draws?

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Joshua Gibbs
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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by Joshua Gibbs » Sat Nov 24, 2018 8:28 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
Sat Nov 24, 2018 7:40 pm
Matthew Turner wrote:
Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:28 am
Surely, Magnus is playing the best player that he has played in a World Championship match and finding it the most difficult. Why is that a surprise? I thought it was a 50/50 match at the start and nothing seems to have changed.
Has Caruana's play been 'better' than that of Karjakin and Anand in the previous three matches that Carlsen played in? I am not convinced that Caruana has shown himself to be a better player than Carlsen, but it seems that even '2018' Carlsen is very difficult to beat in a match. Has Carlsen's play been poor in this match? I don't think we can really say that either.

It has been tense and close. Nerves of steel needed on Monday: will Caruana go for it and try and spring a surprise, or will both players steer towards a draw if they fail to gain anything from the opening?

Does anyone know what odds were available at the start of the match for 12 consecutive draws?
using betfair exchange's odds for a draw on the final day as 1.2 https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/c ... .151737785 as the odds for a draw every day it would be 1.2 to the power of 12 so about 9.00 which is 8/1

If you wanted to know what the odds were for draws each day you would need to look here
https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home

historical odds are very very hard to find for chess but for other sports I use a site called bet explorer.
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Brian Towers
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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by Brian Towers » Sat Nov 24, 2018 10:30 pm

Interesting AlphaZero-assisted analysis from Matthew Sadler here and here and here.
Last edited by Brian Towers on Sat Nov 24, 2018 11:32 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Ah, but I was so much older then. I'm younger than that now.

Jonathan Bryant
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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by Jonathan Bryant » Sat Nov 24, 2018 10:32 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
Sat Nov 24, 2018 7:40 pm

Has Carlsen's play been poor in this match? I don't think we can really say that either.
I think you’re right - Magnus might not been on top top form but he hasn’t been playing that badly.

His opening preparation, particularly with White, has been seriously underwhelming.

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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by David Robertson » Sat Nov 24, 2018 10:39 pm

Joshua Gibbs wrote:
Sat Nov 24, 2018 8:28 pm
the odds for a draw every day it would be 1.2 to the power of 12 so about 9.00 which is 8/1
Pfft! No wonder bookies get rich. At 8/1 for a binary choice of draw/not-draw (even where not-draw is active in two directions) over a 12-sequence, it must tell us something about chess at this level. Other 12-sequence binaries (boy/girl; heads/tails) produce odds of 4000/1

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Re: 2018 World Championship in London

Post by Stewart Reuben » Sun Nov 25, 2018 12:11 am

Well, I cannot cover my bet on Caruana to win in 12 games. After 4 games I got 11/4 for £50 = £137.50 profit if he does win.

Tim Harding >It's probably good for arbiters to keep playing occasionally, though: "look at life from both sides now...",
I tried to persuade FIDE that NEW International Arbiters should at least have a FIDE Rating. I was unsuccessful. Perhaps the new regime?

Let us work on the assumption that Monday's game will be drawn.Then it goes to tiebreaks on Wednesday. In my opinion, two days should be set aside for this. First day rapid play, second blitz plus final Armageddon. Playing two game mini-matches makes it more likely each mini-match will be drawn. Ashot Vardapetian proposed a different system.
Game one White is selected randomly, call him 1. If that game is drawn, they play 2 games where player 2 has white in games 2 and 3. if they are both drawn, then 1 now has white in 2 games. After 7 games you give up for the day.
Next day, you start again at blitz with the same system. After 15 drawn games, you take a break and play the dreaded Armageddon.

I find the idea of deciding the World Championship by Armageddon appalling. It is NOT chess. It is a chess variant. You won't even find the rules in the Laws of Chess. Nor have 'they' experimented to try to determine the 'fairest' differential for White and Black. This would be a quite easy one day event. A Swiss with everybody 2500+ where each player plays two games against his opponent, one with white and one with black. Different parameters for each two game match.
Perhaps 10 mini-matches. Then ask the players to comment and also study the results.

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