2017 World Cup 2-27 September, Tbilisi

[JustinHorton]

Chessbomb computer dislikes Gawain's 47th and 48th and thinks Cori can break in to the fortress

[Chris Rice]

First surprise: Canadian GM Sambuev crushed Wei Yi.

Lest we forget just who this gentleman is http://www.ecforum.org.uk/viewtopic.php ... 5&start=45 (Thanks to Paul Dargan for reminding me)

[Matt Mackenzie]

Chessbomb computer dislikes Gawain's 47th and 48th and thinks Cori can break in to the fortress

Which they duly did.

[Brian Towers]

I think the knock-out format makes it quite hard for him to have much influence. He's not going to be deliberately drawing or losing.

There are bits of that I agree with but I suspect if Carlsen knocks out the likes of Nakamura, Aronian, Kramnik and So his influence may be felt in this tournament.

I must be a bit thick because I can't make sense of that. So, I'll look at how Carlsen can affect who qualifies for the Candidates from this tournament.

With the rules for qualification for the Candidates as they are and the draw as it is it is a logical impossibility for Carlsen to stop all of Nakamura, Aronian, Kramnik and So from qualifying from this tournament. Closer inspection suggests that he can't stop any of them from qualifying!

The qualification rules state that the two highest finishers who are not called Carlsen or Karjakin qualify for the Candidates. Note that both players are playing even though neither can use this tournament for Candidate qualification because they were the finalists in the last world championships. They can't both reach the final because they are cunningly in the same half of the draw and would meet in the semi-finals if they both win their earlier matches. If that happened (a Carlsen v Karjakin semi) then the other two semi-finalists would automatically qualify.

Significant players in the top (Carlsen/Karjakin) half of the draw are MVL, Kramnik, Ivanchuk, Aronian.
Karjakin could knock out Aronian in round 4 (last 16). Although on current form you would bet on Aronian.
If Karjakin wins then he could knock out Kramnik in round 5 (1/4 finals).
Carlsen could knock out MVL in round 5 (1/4 finals).
If Carlsen wins then he would likely face one of Karjakin, Aronian, Kramnik in round 6 (semi-final). Karjakin is already qualified so Carlsen couldn't eliminate him from the Candidates. If he beats one of the other players he also wouldn't eliminate them because there are two places. His losing opponent would have a play-off with the other losing semi-finalist for the second place.

So, the only significant player Carlsen can eliminate from the Candidates in this tournament is MVL although he can make it harder for either Kramnik or Aronian if they meet.

Significant players in the bottom half of the draw are Nakamura, So, Caruana.
Nakamura and So could meet in round 5 (1/4 finals).
The winner of Nakamura v So could face Caruana in the semis.

[Chris Rice]

I think the knock-out format makes it quite hard for him to have much influence. He's not going to be deliberately drawing or losing.

There are bits of that I agree with but I suspect if Carlsen knocks out the likes of Nakamura, Aronian, Kramnik and So his influence may be felt in this tournament.

Significant players in the top (Carlsen/Karjakin) half of the draw are MVL, Kramnik, Ivanchuk, Aronian.
Karjakin could knock out Aronian in round 4 (last 16). Although on current form you would bet on Aronian.
If Karjakin wins then he could knock out Kramnik in round 5 (1/4 finals).
Carlsen could knock out MVL in round 5 (1/4 finals).
If Carlsen wins then he would likely face one of Karjakin, Aronian, Kramnik in round 6 (semi-final). Karjakin is already qualified so Carlsen couldn't eliminate him from the Candidates. If he beats one of the other players he also wouldn't eliminate them because there are two places. His losing opponent would have a play-off with the other losing semi-finalist for the second place.
So, the only significant player Carlsen can eliminate from the Candidates in this tournament is MVL although he can make it harder for either Kramnik or Aronian if they meet.

When I said the "likes of" I was making a general statement about Carlsen eliminating the top players. Replace the ones I have with MVL, Kramnik and Aronian, if you like and the argument is still the same. Carlsen (and as you say the same applies to Karjakin who really shouldn't be there either) could have a significant effect on the qualification of some of the top players for the Candidates and your analysis, as far as I can see doesn't disprove that, it actually demonstrates it. Of course I understand that it is bonus money and publicity for the organisers and great for spectators like me to have Carlsen involved but in theory it makes a bit of a mockery of what is supposed to be a qualification event. It will be interesting to see just how significant the influence that Carlsen and Karjakin have in this tournament.

Peter Doggers report on the first game of the first round with all the results. Pavel Eljanov, Vladimir Fedoseev, Pentala Harikrishna and Wei Yi all lost today and are in grave danger of getting eliminated tomorrow. Mind you the following day half the field will be gone....

[Richard Bates]

There are bits of that I agree with but I suspect if Carlsen knocks out the likes of Nakamura, Aronian, Kramnik and So his influence may be felt in this tournament.

Significant players in the top (Carlsen/Karjakin) half of the draw are MVL, Kramnik, Ivanchuk, Aronian.
Karjakin could knock out Aronian in round 4 (last 16). Although on current form you would bet on Aronian.
If Karjakin wins then he could knock out Kramnik in round 5 (1/4 finals).
Carlsen could knock out MVL in round 5 (1/4 finals).
If Carlsen wins then he would likely face one of Karjakin, Aronian, Kramnik in round 6 (semi-final). Karjakin is already qualified so Carlsen couldn't eliminate him from the Candidates. If he beats one of the other players he also wouldn't eliminate them because there are two places. His losing opponent would have a play-off with the other losing semi-finalist for the second place.
So, the only significant player Carlsen can eliminate from the Candidates in this tournament is MVL although he can make it harder for either Kramnik or Aronian if they meet.

When I said the "likes of" I was making a general statement about Carlsen eliminating the top players. Replace the ones I have with MVL, Kramnik and Aronian, if you like and the argument is still the same. Carlsen (and as you say the same applies to Karjakin who really shouldn't be there either) could have a significant effect on the qualification of some of the top players for the Candidates and your analysis, as far as I can see doesn't disprove that, it actually demonstrates it. Of course I understand that it is bonus money and publicity for the organisers and great for spectators like me to have Carlsen involved but in theory it makes a bit of a mockery of what is supposed to be a qualification event. It will be interesting to see just how significant the influence that Carlsen and Karjakin have in this tournament.

Peter Doggers report on the first game of the first round with all the results. Pavel Eljanov, Vladimir Fedoseev, Pentala Harikrishna and Wei Yi all lost today and are in grave danger of getting eliminated tomorrow. Mind you the following day half the field will be gone....

I would turn the argument on its head. The problem isn't that Carlsen, Karjakin (and, frankly, several other players who are pretty likely to qualify by other means) are there. The problem is actually making it a qualifier for the candidates in the first place.

[Roger de Coverly]

The problem is actually making it a qualifier for the candidates in the first place.

One of the reasons for it being so is that it enables FIDE to demonstrate an "open to all" route to World Championship qualification. Exclusion of those already qualified would reduce the appeal of the event to potential hosts and sponsors. It does however give the World Champion, the defeated previous challenger or ex world champion and the four other likely qualifiers for the Candidates a chance to influence which players take the two World Cup qualification slots.

The rules governing qualification by rating require players qualifying by this route to have taken part in either the Agon Grand Prix or the World Cup.

[Chris Rice]

Danny King analyses Carlsen v Balogun and discovers it wasn't the routine crush that it appeared at first sight. (Regarding the debate above, in the first few seconds of the video he also mentions that Carlsen could potentially eliminate his rivals).

The rest of the ChessBase report highlights that there were 35 decisive games and includes the shock results. The Eljanov turnaround was a real shocker.

One other thing:

"Before starting with the key games of the first round, it should be mentioned that there was one player who didn't have to go through all of the pressure related issues mentioned above: Alexander Onischuk. His opponent Yaroslav Zherebukh couldn't make it to the event which meant that Onischuk not only advanced to the second round, but he also got three free days! Zherebukh had applied for his Green Card in USA and fearing that he may not be admitted back to the country, he decided not to travel to the World Cup. What a pity."

Pity? Why was a substitute not on standby? ie I'm wondering when exactly Zherebukh's circumstances became known. Seirawan seemed to break the news by tweeting the reason after the forfeit so it looks on the face of it that Zherebukh was being a little bit selfish there by not informing the organisers so that someone else perhaps could have had a chance of a lifetime.

[Mick Norris]

Chess Mind day 1 report with 3 annotated games, including Wei Yi

[Jonathan Bryant]

Danny King analyses Carlsen v Balogun and discovers it wasn't the routine crush that it appeared at first sight.

I was surprised to hear King say that when I watched the video last night. It seemed to me - both watching the game at the time and since then - that Balogun was doing very well until he played ... f4. Even after that he wasn’t that much worse at first.

[NickFaulks]

Until now, it has been argued that it was disappointing that several of the top players always chose to duck the World Cup and that it reflected poorly on the status of the event that they could not be persuaded to play. It is only now, when that has actually happened, that reasons are being unearthed why it not such a good thing after all.

[JustinHorton]

Lots of drama today - people can read the reports tomorrow but Anand was among those who had hair's-breadth escapes. As it stands Mickey and David are playing tomorrow, but Gawain looks most unlikely to join them despite having apparently been cruising just out of the opening.

[LawrenceCooper]

Lots of drama today - people can read the reports tomorrow but Anand was among those who had hair's-breadth escapes. As it stands Mickey and David are playing tomorrow, but Gawain looks most unlikely to join them despite having apparently been cruising just out of the opening.

He's generated some chances at least though now he has two extra pawns.

[JustinHorton]

True. Not sure how Cori managed to do that.

Top entertainment of the day, possibly Sethuraman's attempts not to beat Ponomariov from several different overwhelming positions, and Pono's insistence on giving it back each time.

[Thomas Rendle]

Tough to defend on increment and now after 75...Re4? even tougher...