Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

[Geoff Chandler]

Hi Justin,

Thanks and just confirmed it with my 'History of Leyton Orient Book'

Then Clapham Orient Home game, crowd of 16,000.

We lost twice to Man Utd that season.
Home 0-1 crowd of 22.000 and away 4-2 crowd 18,250 (Orient goals by Rennox and Bliss)

I know about the Round One F.A. Cup. That was an error.

Live in Scotland born and bred in Bethnal Green.

[JustinHorton]

I do hope the wildcard is one of the losing semi-finalists.

Of course if the winners were to be Aronian and So, both MVL and Ding still have a decent shot at getting through via the Grand Prix.

[Mick Norris]

Hi Geoff

It is better look at the source i.e. FIDE regulations where in 2.4 you see the minimum 30 rated games mentioned

You'll also note that in the extremely unlikely event that the average rating is tied to the 2nd decimal point, then the player who has played more games qualifies

Martin Bennedik is the easiest way to keep up

[JustinHorton]

Then Clapham Orient Home game, crowd of 16,000.

Clapton even

[Mick Norris]

I do hope the wildcard is one of the losing semi-finalists.

Of course if the winners were to be Aronian and So, both MVL and Ding still have a decent shot at getting through via the Grand Prix.

True, but less likely that both of them go through

[JustinHorton]

You'd only need one to go through if the other got a wildcard though

[Mick Norris]

I have a vague memory of a strong impression that when the rating period that counted for this qualification route began, that Caruana had a relatively high rating (2827) and appeared to sit on that rating (or a similar one) for the first four months of the year.

2827, 2827, 2817, 2817 for Caruana at the start of the qualifying period.

2811, 2811, 2811, 2811, 2811 for Kramnik at the start of the qualifying period

So was 2808, 2822, 2822, 2822 over the same period

Kramnik doesn't play at Wijk aan Zee, which is the major event in January

[Mick Norris]

You'd only need one to go through if the other got a wildcard though

It is possible that the wildcard would go to someone who narrowly missed out in the GP; there's a possibility there will only be a point or two in it

Maybe if someone wins in Palma in November decisively, but doesn't qualify via the GP overall or another route, that might sway the wildcard choice?

[JustinHorton]

Same principle as the way a swift fifty in the Gillette Cup Final would get you into the touring side?

[Geoff Chandler]

I do not mind a wild card. Let the sponsors or whoever pick someone.

They will probably pick the unlucky one if it goes to wire on grading.
An unimaginative choice, nobody can see past the magic numbers.

MVL would be an inspired choice if he trips up against Aronian.
Aronian might get it if he trips up against MVL. (he got it last time, I don't care but someone will)

Hi Mick,

The old 2.4 rule. It always catches me out.

(it's cheating using the FIDE rule book, you should stick to Wiki)

The rule is endless. The longest one there.
'If it's long it's wrong' was the war cry before computers.
Scrap it.

and yes 'Clapton' Orient.

[Mick Norris]

Same principle as the way a swift fifty in the Gillette Cup Final would get you into the touring side?

Yes, though you could argue it shows who is in form

[Chris Rice]

An interesting ChessBase article on Wesley So withdrawing from the Isle of Man tournament (I've added it in that thread too) but given the discussion above would just highlight the following passage:

"His withdrawal from Isle of Man most likely increases his chances to keep his average rating edge over Kramnik, as the conventional wisdom is that it's difficult for an elite player to avoid losing points in an open tournament — even a very strong one. Actually gaining points is even harder. That's the dilemma facing both Kramnik and Caruana, as rating qualification is now their only route to Berlin."

[Mick Norris]

So's live rating was 2788.4, which would have been rounded down to 2788; he has dropped 0.3 today and would do the same tomorrow with a draw, so still rounded to 2788, which is where he would stay if he lost the tiebreak (if he wins the tiebreak, then his rating becomes irrelevant, as he'll have qualified)

Kramnik now playing Euro Club Cup in October, so another chance to gain or lose rating points

[Mick Norris]

Ding & Aronian join Karjakin in Berlin

2 from Shak, Grischuk, Radjabov & MVL will qualify from the GP (decided in November)

2 from Caruana, So & Kramnik by average rating (decided when we know what the December ratings will be)

1 wildcard

[Tim Harding]

What's the minimum rating for the wild card? I hope MVL gets it if he does not qualify from the GP.