Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

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JustinHorton
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by JustinHorton » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:07 pm

It might be that the strongest possible qualifiers would just give 2018 the edge, despite Carlsen's enormous Elo when he played in London.

You can't make a direct comparison, but I quite like the look of the 1965 series, although for instance you have Ivkov where you'd like to have Fischer. But Kramnik might be right.
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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:19 pm

In terms of absolute strength, it's going to be one of the recent ones. In terms of strength relative to the general level of play at the time, well, that'll be a more open question.

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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Roger de Coverly » Tue Oct 31, 2017 3:01 pm

JustinHorton wrote:
Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:07 pm
but I quite like the look of the 1965 series, although for instance you have Ivkov where you'd like to have Fischer. But Kramnik might be right.
In pairing order (knock out)

Spassky v Keres
Smyslov v Geller
Larsen v Ivkov
Portisch v Tal

semis
Spassky v Geller
Larsen v Tal

final
Spassky v Tal

Agree about Fischer, but Stein and Bronstein would have been in the Candidates were it not for what Bronstein called the Botvinnik rule where only 5 Soviet players were allowed to participate.

Korchnoi was missing as well, not even qualifying for the Interzonal.

Geller was there as third from the 1962 Candidates, Keres had been second. Botvinnik had retired from world championship participation.

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JustinHorton
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by JustinHorton » Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:53 pm

If we tried to judge it by ranking people in world order, and then giving each tournament or series a point per place, which would have the lowest score?
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by JustinHorton » Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:16 pm

Answer: using the Chessmetrics list for April 1965 and the FIDE list for March 2013, the 1965 series scores 76 and the 2013 tournament 65.

Meanwhile, if we use the Chess2700 ratings and assume that MVL and Mamedyarov qualify for Berlin (since using different bases and making assumptions are sound statistical procedures) we would get a score of only 52.

(In passing, I don't know if MVL could also qualify by rating average even if he doesn't get the result he needs at Palma. Of course a less-than-solid performance on Mallorca would do his rating average no favours.)
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Mick Norris » Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:35 pm

JustinHorton wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:16 pm
(In passing, I don't know if MVL could also qualify by rating average even if he doesn't get the result he needs at Palma. Of course a less-than-solid performance on Mallorca would do his rating average no favours.)
No, he can't; the 2 qualifiers by rating are Caruana and So

MVL needs a good result in Mallorca to qualify
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by JustinHorton » Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:43 pm

Ah OK, thanks. I didn't realise that was done and dusted.
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by JustinHorton » Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:52 pm

Using the same method and the August 1953 ratings on Chessmetrics would tell us that Zürich featured the top fourteen players in the world except Botvinnik, the number sixteen (Euwe) and the number twenty-five (Averbakh).

I'm not sure about using Chessmetrics for this exercise, not that I can think of an alternative, and I'm also not sure you can compare an eight-player event with a fifteen-player event (why fifteen?) but if you can, would that be as strong as Berlin threatens to be?
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Kevin Thurlow » Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:15 pm

"I'm also not sure you can compare an eight-player event with a fifteen-player event (why fifteen?)"

Was it to give every player a rest day, without actually having one?

Maybe someone dropped out?

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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:04 pm

I think the question was "why *as many* as 15??"

(far more than in any other CT)

Was it something to do with tying for qualifying spots?
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:19 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:04 pm
I think the question was "why *as many* as 15??"

(far more than in any other CT)

Was it something to do with tying for qualifying spots?
Probably.

World Chess Championship 1954:

Regarding the 1952 Interzonal: "Only the top five were supposed to have qualified for a 12-player Candidates Tournament, but four players were tied for fifth place, and since the Sonneborn-Berger tie-break margins were so small, all four were included."

And:

"The field consisted of 15 players: The top eight from the 1952 Interzonal, the top five from the previous Candidates Tournament (Bronstein, Boleslavsky, Smyslov, Keres, and Najdorf), and the last two players from the 1948 championships not already qualified (Reshevsky and Euwe)."

I don't get 'the last two players from the 1948 championships not already qualified'? Oh, that was the funny one held after Alekhine died, the quintuple round-robin:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Che ... nship_1948

Seems strange by modern standards that they would include people from a tournament 6 years previously, especially as there had been a World Chess Championship in 1951. Reshevsky did welll. Euwe finished near the bottom.

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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Kevin Thurlow » Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:42 am

"Seems strange by modern standards that they would include people from a tournament 6 years previously, especially as there had been a World Chess Championship in 1951. Reshevsky did welll. Euwe finished near the bottom."

There were not as many big tournaments then. It may also have been that the top ten (e.g.) players were obvious, whereas that's not really the case now. Euwe was over 50 by then, and he got probably tired during a long tournament, and he was an "amateur" player, as he had a full-time job.

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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:08 pm

Kevin Thurlow wrote:
Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:42 am
Euwe was over 50 by then, and he got probably tired during a long tournament, and he was an "amateur" player, as he had a full-time job.
He actually started the 1953 event well (including a famous win over Geller) but faded badly in the latter stages.
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Mick Norris » Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:11 pm

Line up now confirmed (current position in live ratings in brackets)

Aronian (2), Mamedyarov (3), Caruana (4), So (6), Kramnik (7), Ding (10), Grischuk (11), Karjakin (13)

If I remember correctly, Caruana will play So in round 1 and 8, with Kramnik, Karjakin & Grischuk having to meet in rounds 1-3 (and 8-10)
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:27 pm

So that's PINs 1, 2 and 8 for the three Russians, then.

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