English Chess Forum

Oh, in I-would-check-this-if-I-were-you news, I don't think it's possible for Karjakin to win the thing today even if all the results go his way (i.e. he wins, Caruana and Ding lose, the other game drawn). Although his number of wins would be unassailable, head-to-head takes precedence and Mamedyarov's win in round one would be decisive if they both finished on 8.

Has anyone worked out yet who has been mathematically eliminated? Aronian cannot finish first, and neither can So, but can Kramnik still qualify? Of the five people within half a point of the lead, Karjakin plays Ding and Grischuk plays Caruana and Grischuk also plays Mamedyarov. In theory, if Grischuk draws both games (or loses the right one and wins the other one) and Karjakin vs Ding is a draw or a win for Ding, then there could still be a massive pile up on 7.5 points, and Kramnik could join that group in some permutations with two wins. But would Kramnik lose all the possible tie-breaks?

Round 13:

So-Karjakin
Aronian-Caruana
Kramnik-Ding
Grischuk-Mamedyarov

Round 14:

Ding-Karjakin
Caruana-Grischuk
Mamedyarov-Kramnik
Aronian-So

Let's say: Ding beats Karjakin; Ding loses to Kramnik; Kramnik beats Mamedyarov; Mamedyarov beats Grischuk; Grischuk beats Caruana; Karjakin draws with So; Caruana draws with Aronian. The final game (the one that will probably be drawn very quickly) is Aronian against So in the final round, but let's give that as a win for Aronian.

i.e.

Round 13 (prediction):

So 0.5-0.5 Karjakin
Aronian 0.5-0.5 Caruana
Kramnik 1-0 Ding
Grischuk 0-1 Mamedyarov

Round 14 (prediction):

Ding 1-0 Karjakin
Caruana 0-1 Grischuk
Mamedyarov 0-1 Kramnik
Aronian 1-0 So

Final scores would be: Karjakin (7.5), Caruana (7.5), Mamedyarov (7.5), Ding (7.5), Grischuk (7.5), Kramnik (7.5), So (5.5), Aronian (5.5).

Who would win that 6-way tie for first?

I have been assuming Kramnik could still win solely on the grounds that odds of 500/1 on him sre still available! However, the odds against my sitting down and working it out are not dissimilar...

I think that any tie on 7.5 will be a minimum of 5 players. Some permutations see Grischuk or Mamedyarov fall just short on 7 points, but one of them has to get to 7.5 to avoid someone else getting to 8 points. The same with Ding and Kramnik, I think. In some of these permutations, you need So to beat Karjakin and Aronian to beat Caruana. I haven't found a combination of results yet that only leaves four people on 7.5 points, you seem to end up with 5 or 6 people on that score. Of course, some results today might well ensure the winning score is 8 points or more, which is far more likely. But a pile-up on 7.5 is still mathematically possible.

This is a permutation with four people on 7.5 points.

Round 13 (prediction):

So 1-0 Karjakin
Aronian 1-0 Caruana
*Kramnik 1-0 Ding
Grischuk 0.5-0.5 Mamedyarov

Round 14 (prediction):

*Ding 0.5-0.5 Karjakin
Caruana 0.5-0.5 Grischuk
*Mamedyarov 0.5-0.5 Kramnik
Aronian 1-0 So

Final scores would be: Karjakin (7.5), Caruana (7.5), Grischuk (7.5), Mamedyarov (7.5), Ding (7), Kramnik (7), So (6), Aronian (6).

Change the results of the (*) games to switch Ding in (for a five-way tie) and Kramnik in instead of Mamedyarov. An alternative five-way tie is to have Ding beat Karjakin, leaving Karjakin out of first place and Ding in there instead. Not sure how many five-way ties there are. Probably quite a few four-way ties.

Back in the real world, I think that whoever wins will have deserved it, although I hope it does not come down to an arbitrary tie-break. If it happens to be Karjakin then I think he will have a good chance against Carlsen; don't forget he was within a whisker of winning last time. I think it is no coincidence that recent title matches have been closer than might have been expected, with the players very evenly matched, whereas challengers tournaments can be a test of who can score heaviest against the also-rans.

How Kramnik mght qualify

Mamedyarov must beat Grischuk
Ding Liren must lose to Kramnik
So must beat Karjakin
Caruana must not beat Aronian
Grischuk must beat Caruana
Karjakin must lose to Ding Liren
Kramnik must beat Mamedyarov

From here

Just looked in, all eight players camped behind the halfway line.

Karjakin may be very close to getting a draw with Black but Aronian's position feels pretty awkward. Wouldn't mind if Jan and Peter tore themselves away from the Grunfeld game for a bit.

Graham Borrowdale wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:49 pm

Back in the real world, I think that whoever wins will have deserved it, although I hope it does not come down to an arbitrary tie-break. If it happens to be Karjakin then I think he will have a good chance against Carlsen; don't forget he was within a whisker of winning last time. I think it is no coincidence that recent title matches have been closer than might have been expected, with the players very evenly matched, whereas challengers tournaments can be a test of who can score heaviest against the also-rans.

Alternatively, this time round (if it happens) Carlsen might have him better "worked out".......

So-Karjakin has ended peacefully.

Big blunder from Grischuk, and now it seems that Caruana and Shak M will both win.

Meaning Caruana on +3, with two players, Karjakin and Shak M on +2.

But Caruana would have to worry about "only" drawing while Karjakin (with white) might win and be the only other player on +3. That, of course, will be Karjain's dream scenario. While Shak M will hope that both he AND karjakin win to join caruana on +3, because bringing Karjakin into the equation would give the him the title on tie break, on account of his first round win v the Russian.

Shares in Karjakin nose-dive as Caruana takes the lead and there is also a chance he could lose on tiebreak to Mamedyarov should Fabi fail tomorrow.
Ding looks like holding,

So if Mamedyarov wins tomorrow, Karjakin can't win, yes?

I wonder how much Grischuk will have left tomorrow. Though also, how Caruana will approach the game, given that (if I'm following) a draw is only good enough if Karjakin doesn't win.

Ding can still become challenger on this scenario: draw today with Kramnik (likely) and beat Karjakin with Black tomorrow (not inconceivable as Karjakin needs to try for a win). Caruana loss. Mamedyarov draw. Aronian-So irrelevant.

If I am right, Ding would win on tiebreak (because of his win against Shak, all other games among the three being drawn). But if Ding ties with Caruana alone, the American qualifies on the most wins rule.