Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

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JustinHorton
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:37 pm

That's what I've got too (and Ding has drawn). Wonder how Ding will approach it, too - you'd maybe think he should throw the kitchen sink at it, but on the other hand, he might conclude that Karjakin needs to play for a win, and let him make the running?
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by LawrenceCooper » Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:37 pm

Last round pairings following the Ding-Kramnik game ending in a draw:

1 GM Grischuk, A. (6½) 2767— —GM Caruana, F. (8) 2784
2 GM Aronian, L. (4) 2794— — GM So, Wesley (5½) 2799
3 GM Karjakin, S. (7½) 2763— — GM Ding, Liren (7) 2769
4 GM Kramnik, V. (6) 2800— — GM Mamedyarov (7½) 2809

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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Tim Harding » Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:55 pm

JustinHorton wrote:
Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:37 pm
That's what I've got too (and Ding has drawn). Wonder how Ding will approach it, too - you'd maybe think he should throw the kitchen sink at it, but on the other hand, he might conclude that Karjakin needs to play for a win, and let him make the running?
I think DIng will want Karjakin to make the running and over-press.
Karjakin cannot play for a draw, not only because of Fabi but also because he must outscore Shak.

According to my database Karjakin has twice played White against Ding and lost both. In 2012 it was a Caro-Kann and 2015 it was a Pirc.

Karjakin will presumably play 1 e4 again so what will Ding prepare?

Svidler hinted that now Grischuk is out of contention he may just play for a draw against Fabi, which would of course be of assistance to Karjakin but Caruana might just acquiesce rather than take risks.

Everyone will be watching everyone else in the early stages of course but Caruana may take the view that Ding will not lose.

If Caruana and Shak share first, the American qualifies on more wins. Also, by drawing, Caruana rules out Ding's hopes of qualifying, after which Ding is more likely to take no risks and just draw with Karjakin.
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Nick Burrows » Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:03 pm

Tim Harding wrote:
Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:55 pm

If Caruana and Shak share first, the American qualifies on more wins. Also, by drawing, Caruana rules out Ding's hopes of qualifying, after which Ding is more likely to take no risks and just draw with Karjakin.
Yes, so a tight strategy for Fabi would be a quick draw. The longer Ding is playing for a win vs Karjakin, the higher the chances that Karjakin will win.

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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:08 pm

However, if he takes a quick draw and Karjakin goes on to win, he's going to spend the rest of his life wishing he didn't, so I'm not entirely convinced.

EDIT: Incidentally, bothering to look at the regulations, I notice:
The players cannot draw a game by agreement before black’s 30th move
So while I wonder whether the arbiters really would step in to prevent a threefold repetition early doors, strictly speaking an early draw is not a straightforward option to take.
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Tim Harding » Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:08 pm

Nick Burrows wrote:
Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:03 pm
Tim Harding wrote:
Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:55 pm

If Caruana and Shak share first, the American qualifies on more wins. Also, by drawing, Caruana rules out Ding's hopes of qualifying, after which Ding is more likely to take no risks and just draw with Karjakin.
Yes, so a tight strategy for Fabi would be a quick draw. The longer Ding is playing for a win vs Karjakin, the higher the chances that Karjakin will win.
Exactly, especially remembering what went wrong in the last round of the previous Candidates.

A lot may depend on Grischuk and Ding's opening choices, though.
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:28 pm

A draw (or win) for Ding would - I think - make him only the third player to go through a Candidates tournament unbeaten. (Name the other two.) [EDIT: this is not correct, see below.]

I also think this is the first time there have been four contenders for first place on the final day, is that correct?
Last edited by JustinHorton on Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:40 pm

Well, Giri is the obvious first answer.

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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:42 pm

And I made a guess at the second and it turned out to be right: Petrosian in 1962.

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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:44 pm

And I think I am wrong, because there is actually one other. I had somehow forgotten about Giri.
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Paul Cooksey » Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:46 pm

I think there are two more

Really looking forward to my afternoon off to spectate tomorrow. Hoping Shak makes it. That is the most interesting match IMO.

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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:02 pm

Anand in 2014, can't immediately think of the other

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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:13 pm

Boleslavsky in 1950. What a pig's ear I made of that.
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Chris Goodall » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:31 pm

Grischuk will throw caution to the wind. King's Gambit or similar. He has no use at all for a draw. If it works he gets his name in lights. If he loses then Karjakin misses out on being challenger again, and I have a sneaking suspicion that will suit Grischuk fine.
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Re: Candidates Tournament in Berlin March 2018

Post by Mick Norris » Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:55 pm

Am I right that Ding can't qualify as he can only catch Caruana but Fabi has a better tie break?
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