Who will win the 2018 candidates?

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who will win the 2018 candidates?

Poll ended at Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:42 pm

Levon Aronian
5
31%
Fabiano Caruana
2
13%
Ding Liren
1
6%
Alexander Grischuk
0
No votes
Sergey Karjakin
2
13%
Vladimir Kramnik
5
31%
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
1
6%
Wesley So
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 16

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Paolo Casaschi
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Who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by Paolo Casaschi » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:42 pm

Usual pointless guessing game about the next candidates tournaments... three days to vote, polling closing shortly before the 1st round start on March 10th.
Last edited by Paolo Casaschi on Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:06 pm

Just got a hunch that this will (finally) be Levon's time.....
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:09 pm

I voted second, adding my vote for Karjakinto (presumably?) Paolo's, unless someone else voted and Paolo is waiting until later. Wonder who voted for Caruana? Will any of the candidates be pointless (in this vote, not in the tournament!)?

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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:13 pm

I voted for Caruana.

Being pointless in the tournament would be an achievement; am I right in thinking Taimanov is the only one who's ever managed it?

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Paolo Casaschi
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by Paolo Casaschi » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:16 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:09 pm
I voted second, adding my vote for Karjakinto (presumably?) Paolo's, unless someone else voted and Paolo is waiting until later.
I voted for Karjakin. In the lack of a clear favourite, it's a matter of form during the tournament and experience in similar events. While the former is a big unknown until the first games, the latter gives a small edge to the likes of Karjakin and Kramnik, hence my pick.

Roger de Coverly
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by Roger de Coverly » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:50 pm

IM Jack Rudd wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:13 pm
am I right in thinking Taimanov is the only one who's ever managed it?
Larsen as well, unless you are not looking at 1970-71

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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:02 pm

Yes, but Larsen won his previous round, for a total of 5½/15 over that series as a whole.

Mick Norris
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by Mick Norris » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:05 pm

I'm not sure Karjakin can win twice running, and it may be that support from Chris is too much for him to overcome :lol:

I can't see Ding or Grischuk winning, but I think you can make a case for any of the others

I'd like Vlad to win, but I'm not sure over 14 rounds he won't mess up a couple of winning positions and/or fail to hold a couple of tricky ones

I've got no clue who might prepare best, hold their nerve best, or have a psychological edge against some of the others; so, I voted for Shak as he has been in the best form over the last year or so
Any postings on here represent my personal views

Paul Dargan
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by Paul Dargan » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:10 pm

Just thought I'd plug the Gorm's guide to the runners and riders over on the Ginger GM website:

https://www.gingergm.com/blog/candidates-2018-preview

Just in case people are loooking for a form guide ... in short he says Karjakin is a stayer, outside punts Ding Liren, Kramnik ... all-in or terrible Levon and Shak.

Paul

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:55 pm

Paul Dargan wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:10 pm
Just thought I'd plug the Gorm's guide to the runners and riders over on the Ginger GM website:

https://www.gingergm.com/blog/candidates-2018-preview
Thanks for the pointer.

That says: "I got some interesting info from Lawrence Trent recently. He has the inside track on Caruana (Trent used to be his manager) and the word is the Italian-American has been working harder than ever in preparation for this event."

I wasn't aware that Trent was no longer Caruana's manager - when did that end?

LawrenceCooper
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by LawrenceCooper » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:34 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:55 pm
I wasn't aware that Trent was no longer Caruana's manager - when did that end?
In 2016 http://www.thechessmind.net/blog/2016/1 ... ruana.html

Mick Norris
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by Mick Norris » Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:56 am

Consensus here as I have read elsewhere that Aronian is the favourite
Any postings on here represent my personal views

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:18 pm

I think that there are three players who cannot really do it: Liren (lack of experience) Grischuk (lack of strength and momentum) and So (lack of experience and mental stability). Of course each is capable of 50% or whatever.

But of the other five - a highly plausible case can be made for each.

Nick Burrows
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by Nick Burrows » Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:22 pm

I hope you are wrong Jonathan, i punted £10 on Ding at 14-1. Based on his play at the World Cup i think its a good price. I expect he will be as well prepared as any other player also.

I chose Kramnik in the poll.

A preview from MVL: http://www.mvlchess.com/en/2018/03/08/candidates-2018/

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: who will win the 2018 candidates?

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:14 pm

It's a very good price but I see that you still don't expect him actually to win!

But in many ways he will attract the most interest. In particular, would he play the KI even at this level? Today he has not.