Sinquefield Cup
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
Current GCT standings:
Nakamura: 33
MVL: 25
Karjakin: 24
So: 23
Aronian: 19
Mamedyarov: 15
Grischuk: 12
Caruana: 11
Anand: 9
Available points from Sinquefield Cup: 18/20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1 (20 for outright first).
Points are shared in the event of a tie.
If all games in rounds 8 and 9 are drawn (i.e. nothing changes), then Caruana gets 20 points, Grischuk, Mamedyarov, Carlsen and Aronian get 11.25 points. MVL and Anand would get 5 points each. So would get 3 points. Nakamura would get 2 points. Karjakin would get 1 point.
The GCT standings would then be:
Nakamura: 35
Aronian: 31.25
Caruana: 31
MVL: 30
Mamedyarov: 26.25
So: 26
Karjakin: 25
Grischuk: 23.25
Anand: 14
i.e. Nakamura and MVL stay in the top four and qualify, while Aronian and Caruana move up into the top four and qualify, with Karjakin and So dropping out of the top four.
Moving up from shared second (between four) to shared first in the Sinquefield Cup would be a change from 11.25 points to 16.5 points (if two share first) or 15 points (if three share first). For Caruana, that would be a drop from 20 points down to that total (i.e. losing 4-5 points). Sharing 3-4 (11 points), sharing 3-5 (10 points), sharing 4-5 (9 points), sharing 4-6 (8 points), sharing 5-6 (7 points) all get varying amounts of points. As you can see, it tends to be about a point lost for each drop down the rung.
Grischuk may still be in it but probably needs to win outright and still rely on other results. Anand is out of it, and Karjakin too. So and Mamedyarov can still qualify, and it is their games that will be most critical.
Round 8:
MVL-Aronian
Nakamura-Karjakin
Mamedyarov-Carlsen
Caruana-Anand
Grischuk-So
Round 9:
Aronian-Grischuk
So-Caruana
Anand-Mamedyarov
Carlsen-Nakamura
Karjakin-MVL
So has his own fate in his hands as he is playing two of his rivals for the top-4 spot (Caruana and Grischuk). Mamedyarov is playing Anand (who can't qualify) and Carlsen (the wildcard). He can try and win, but can't directly influence the results of his rivals. Nakamura is in a similar situation.
MVL-Aronian in round 8: a draw might suit both players. Depending on the results of round 8, then in round 9 it might be that draws in Aronian-Grischuk and So-Caruana might be enough for one or both players.
But it is probably too close to really tell, and lots of permutations.
Nakamura: 33
MVL: 25
Karjakin: 24
So: 23
Aronian: 19
Mamedyarov: 15
Grischuk: 12
Caruana: 11
Anand: 9
Available points from Sinquefield Cup: 18/20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1 (20 for outright first).
Points are shared in the event of a tie.
If all games in rounds 8 and 9 are drawn (i.e. nothing changes), then Caruana gets 20 points, Grischuk, Mamedyarov, Carlsen and Aronian get 11.25 points. MVL and Anand would get 5 points each. So would get 3 points. Nakamura would get 2 points. Karjakin would get 1 point.
The GCT standings would then be:
Nakamura: 35
Aronian: 31.25
Caruana: 31
MVL: 30
Mamedyarov: 26.25
So: 26
Karjakin: 25
Grischuk: 23.25
Anand: 14
i.e. Nakamura and MVL stay in the top four and qualify, while Aronian and Caruana move up into the top four and qualify, with Karjakin and So dropping out of the top four.
Moving up from shared second (between four) to shared first in the Sinquefield Cup would be a change from 11.25 points to 16.5 points (if two share first) or 15 points (if three share first). For Caruana, that would be a drop from 20 points down to that total (i.e. losing 4-5 points). Sharing 3-4 (11 points), sharing 3-5 (10 points), sharing 4-5 (9 points), sharing 4-6 (8 points), sharing 5-6 (7 points) all get varying amounts of points. As you can see, it tends to be about a point lost for each drop down the rung.
Grischuk may still be in it but probably needs to win outright and still rely on other results. Anand is out of it, and Karjakin too. So and Mamedyarov can still qualify, and it is their games that will be most critical.
Round 8:
MVL-Aronian
Nakamura-Karjakin
Mamedyarov-Carlsen
Caruana-Anand
Grischuk-So
Round 9:
Aronian-Grischuk
So-Caruana
Anand-Mamedyarov
Carlsen-Nakamura
Karjakin-MVL
So has his own fate in his hands as he is playing two of his rivals for the top-4 spot (Caruana and Grischuk). Mamedyarov is playing Anand (who can't qualify) and Carlsen (the wildcard). He can try and win, but can't directly influence the results of his rivals. Nakamura is in a similar situation.
MVL-Aronian in round 8: a draw might suit both players. Depending on the results of round 8, then in round 9 it might be that draws in Aronian-Grischuk and So-Caruana might be enough for one or both players.
But it is probably too close to really tell, and lots of permutations.
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
MVL-Aronian drawn.
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
as was Nakamura-Karjakin.
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
Caruana-Anand the latest to halve out.
Re: Sinquefield Cup
An imposing IPC for Carlsen. But unlikely to prevent draw no. 4
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
Grischuk escaped with what seemed like an unlikely draw.
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
Mamedyarov-Carlsen was a lot more interesting (after about move 30) than a glance at the result or the evaluations might suggest.
Carlsen's drawn against the world number 2 and 3 in the last two rounds but on each occasion he's looked like the better player.
Carlsen's drawn against the world number 2 and 3 in the last two rounds but on each occasion he's looked like the better player.
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
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"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
Of the six decisive games only one has come in the last four rounds.
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
The chess.com round 8 report by Mike Klein has quite a bit about the qualification scenarios
The Chess Mind report has game analysis
The Chess Mind report has game analysis
Any postings on here represent my personal views
Re: Sinquefield Cup
I went to bed last night before the end of Mamedyarov-Carlsen thinking, it's dead drawn: if Carlsen wins this, he's a better player than I am.
Well, he didn't win it.
Well, he didn't win it.
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
To me, Magnus only has the air of 'primus inter pares' at the moment. A bit like Botvinnik in the 1950s.
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
He's not as dominant as he was, but could that also be a few other players catching up with him?
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
After 8 rounds, 32 games played, 26 drawn.
In the 2014 Sinquefield Cup, a 6-player double round-robin, 10 rounds, total games played 30, 14 decisive, half of which were Caruana wins.
So Caruana alone won more games in 2014 than we have seen so far this year, despite two more games being played.
The 2014 event was one of the first tournaments I watched live almost in its entirety and it was extremely exciting.
The only player missing from the 2014 line-up is Topalov who had six decisive games (three wins, a loss to Carlsen and two to Caruana).
In 2018 MVL and Vishy have drawn all their games while Karjakin has played himself out of the running for London.
Please suggest weightings for possible reasons why the 2018 event has seen so many draws, chiefly because of top players unaccountably not making the most of their chances (including Nakamura and especially So yesterday, Carlsen against Caruana, Grischuk against Carlsen, maybe others).
a) Inhibiting effect of GCT final qualification? (Yet Nakamura had said beforehand he could just play a normal tournament since his place in the final was virtually assured, but he has played poorly.)
b) Different time limit? I am not sure what it was in 2014 but don't think they used delay then?
c) Inhibiting effect (on Carlsen) of upcoming title match?
d) Players tired before the event because of the blitz and rapid preceding?
e) Absence of Topalov.
In the 2014 Sinquefield Cup, a 6-player double round-robin, 10 rounds, total games played 30, 14 decisive, half of which were Caruana wins.
So Caruana alone won more games in 2014 than we have seen so far this year, despite two more games being played.
The 2014 event was one of the first tournaments I watched live almost in its entirety and it was extremely exciting.
The only player missing from the 2014 line-up is Topalov who had six decisive games (three wins, a loss to Carlsen and two to Caruana).
In 2018 MVL and Vishy have drawn all their games while Karjakin has played himself out of the running for London.
Please suggest weightings for possible reasons why the 2018 event has seen so many draws, chiefly because of top players unaccountably not making the most of their chances (including Nakamura and especially So yesterday, Carlsen against Caruana, Grischuk against Carlsen, maybe others).
a) Inhibiting effect of GCT final qualification? (Yet Nakamura had said beforehand he could just play a normal tournament since his place in the final was virtually assured, but he has played poorly.)
b) Different time limit? I am not sure what it was in 2014 but don't think they used delay then?
c) Inhibiting effect (on Carlsen) of upcoming title match?
d) Players tired before the event because of the blitz and rapid preceding?
e) Absence of Topalov.
Tim Harding
Historian and FIDE Arbiter
Author of 'Steinitz in London,' British Chess Literature to 1914', 'Joseph Henry Blackburne: A Chess Biography', and 'Eminent Victorian Chess Players'
http://www.chessmail.com
Historian and FIDE Arbiter
Author of 'Steinitz in London,' British Chess Literature to 1914', 'Joseph Henry Blackburne: A Chess Biography', and 'Eminent Victorian Chess Players'
http://www.chessmail.com
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
40 games played, 34 drawn.
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Re: Sinquefield Cup
Terrible at maths! Reinforces my argument though.
They're off:
So v Caruana, Petroff 3 Nxe5 d6 4 Nd3!? Nxe4 5 Qe2 Qe7
Carlsen v Nakamura, QGD
Aronian v Grischuk, 1 d4 Nf6 2 Nf3 d6
Anand v Mamedyarov, Open Spanish
Karjakin v MVL, Gruenfeld Exchange
Tim Harding
Historian and FIDE Arbiter
Author of 'Steinitz in London,' British Chess Literature to 1914', 'Joseph Henry Blackburne: A Chess Biography', and 'Eminent Victorian Chess Players'
http://www.chessmail.com
Historian and FIDE Arbiter
Author of 'Steinitz in London,' British Chess Literature to 1914', 'Joseph Henry Blackburne: A Chess Biography', and 'Eminent Victorian Chess Players'
http://www.chessmail.com