Sinquefield Cup

The very latest International round up of English news.
User avatar
Christopher Kreuzer
Posts: 8806
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 2:34 am
Location: London

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:39 pm

Current GCT standings:

Nakamura: 33
MVL: 25
Karjakin: 24
So: 23
Aronian: 19
Mamedyarov: 15
Grischuk: 12
Caruana: 11
Anand: 9

Available points from Sinquefield Cup: 18/20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1 (20 for outright first).

Points are shared in the event of a tie.

If all games in rounds 8 and 9 are drawn (i.e. nothing changes), then Caruana gets 20 points, Grischuk, Mamedyarov, Carlsen and Aronian get 11.25 points. MVL and Anand would get 5 points each. So would get 3 points. Nakamura would get 2 points. Karjakin would get 1 point.

The GCT standings would then be:

Nakamura: 35
Aronian: 31.25
Caruana: 31
MVL: 30
Mamedyarov: 26.25
So: 26
Karjakin: 25
Grischuk: 23.25
Anand: 14

i.e. Nakamura and MVL stay in the top four and qualify, while Aronian and Caruana move up into the top four and qualify, with Karjakin and So dropping out of the top four.

Moving up from shared second (between four) to shared first in the Sinquefield Cup would be a change from 11.25 points to 16.5 points (if two share first) or 15 points (if three share first). For Caruana, that would be a drop from 20 points down to that total (i.e. losing 4-5 points). Sharing 3-4 (11 points), sharing 3-5 (10 points), sharing 4-5 (9 points), sharing 4-6 (8 points), sharing 5-6 (7 points) all get varying amounts of points. As you can see, it tends to be about a point lost for each drop down the rung.

Grischuk may still be in it but probably needs to win outright and still rely on other results. Anand is out of it, and Karjakin too. So and Mamedyarov can still qualify, and it is their games that will be most critical.

Round 8:
MVL-Aronian
Nakamura-Karjakin
Mamedyarov-Carlsen
Caruana-Anand
Grischuk-So

Round 9:
Aronian-Grischuk
So-Caruana
Anand-Mamedyarov
Carlsen-Nakamura
Karjakin-MVL

So has his own fate in his hands as he is playing two of his rivals for the top-4 spot (Caruana and Grischuk). Mamedyarov is playing Anand (who can't qualify) and Carlsen (the wildcard). He can try and win, but can't directly influence the results of his rivals. Nakamura is in a similar situation.

MVL-Aronian in round 8: a draw might suit both players. Depending on the results of round 8, then in round 9 it might be that draws in Aronian-Grischuk and So-Caruana might be enough for one or both players.

But it is probably too close to really tell, and lots of permutations.

LawrenceCooper
Posts: 7175
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:13 am

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by LawrenceCooper » Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:03 pm

MVL-Aronian drawn.

LawrenceCooper
Posts: 7175
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:13 am

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by LawrenceCooper » Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:43 pm

LawrenceCooper wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:03 pm
MVL-Aronian drawn.
as was Nakamura-Karjakin.

LawrenceCooper
Posts: 7175
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:13 am

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by LawrenceCooper » Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:03 pm

Caruana-Anand the latest to halve out.

David Robertson

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by David Robertson » Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:23 pm

An imposing IPC for Carlsen. But unlikely to prevent draw no. 4

LawrenceCooper
Posts: 7175
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:13 am

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by LawrenceCooper » Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:46 pm

Grischuk escaped with what seemed like an unlikely draw.

User avatar
JustinHorton
Posts: 10364
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 10:06 am
Location: Somewhere you're not

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:17 am

Mamedyarov-Carlsen was a lot more interesting (after about move 30) than a glance at the result or the evaluations might suggest.

Carlsen's drawn against the world number 2 and 3 in the last two rounds but on each occasion he's looked like the better player.
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."

lostontime.blogspot.com

LawrenceCooper
Posts: 7175
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:13 am

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by LawrenceCooper » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:32 am

Of the six decisive games only one has come in the last four rounds.

Mick Norris
Posts: 10329
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by Mick Norris » Mon Aug 27, 2018 9:55 am

The chess.com round 8 report by Mike Klein has quite a bit about the qualification scenarios

The Chess Mind report has game analysis
Any postings on here represent my personal views

David Robertson

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by David Robertson » Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:07 pm

I went to bed last night before the end of Mamedyarov-Carlsen thinking, it's dead drawn: if Carlsen wins this, he's a better player than I am.

Well, he didn't win it.

Nick Ivell
Posts: 1138
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2011 6:33 pm

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by Nick Ivell » Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:48 pm

To me, Magnus only has the air of 'primus inter pares' at the moment. A bit like Botvinnik in the 1950s.

User avatar
Matt Mackenzie
Posts: 5206
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:51 pm
Location: Millom, Cumbria

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:02 pm

He's not as dominant as he was, but could that also be a few other players catching up with him?
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

Tim Harding
Posts: 2318
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2010 8:46 pm
Location: Dublin, Ireland

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by Tim Harding » Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:40 pm

After 8 rounds, 32 games played, 26 drawn.

In the 2014 Sinquefield Cup, a 6-player double round-robin, 10 rounds, total games played 30, 14 decisive, half of which were Caruana wins.

So Caruana alone won more games in 2014 than we have seen so far this year, despite two more games being played.

The 2014 event was one of the first tournaments I watched live almost in its entirety and it was extremely exciting.

The only player missing from the 2014 line-up is Topalov who had six decisive games (three wins, a loss to Carlsen and two to Caruana).

In 2018 MVL and Vishy have drawn all their games while Karjakin has played himself out of the running for London.

Please suggest weightings for possible reasons why the 2018 event has seen so many draws, chiefly because of top players unaccountably not making the most of their chances (including Nakamura and especially So yesterday, Carlsen against Caruana, Grischuk against Carlsen, maybe others).

a) Inhibiting effect of GCT final qualification? (Yet Nakamura had said beforehand he could just play a normal tournament since his place in the final was virtually assured, but he has played poorly.)

b) Different time limit? I am not sure what it was in 2014 but don't think they used delay then?

c) Inhibiting effect (on Carlsen) of upcoming title match?

d) Players tired before the event because of the blitz and rapid preceding?

e) Absence of Topalov.
Tim Harding
Historian and FIDE Arbiter

Author of 'Steinitz in London,' British Chess Literature to 1914', 'Joseph Henry Blackburne: A Chess Biography', and 'Eminent Victorian Chess Players'
http://www.chessmail.com

Alex Holowczak
Posts: 9085
Joined: Sat May 30, 2009 5:18 pm
Location: Oldbury, Worcestershire

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by Alex Holowczak » Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:13 pm

Tim Harding wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:40 pm
After 8 rounds, 32 games played, 26 drawn.
40 games played, 34 drawn.

Tim Harding
Posts: 2318
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2010 8:46 pm
Location: Dublin, Ireland

Re: Sinquefield Cup

Post by Tim Harding » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:05 pm

Alex Holowczak wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:13 pm
Tim Harding wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:40 pm
After 8 rounds, 32 games played, 26 drawn.
40 games played, 34 drawn.
Terrible at maths! Reinforces my argument though.

They're off:
So v Caruana, Petroff 3 Nxe5 d6 4 Nd3!? Nxe4 5 Qe2 Qe7
Carlsen v Nakamura, QGD
Aronian v Grischuk, 1 d4 Nf6 2 Nf3 d6
Anand v Mamedyarov, Open Spanish
Karjakin v MVL, Gruenfeld Exchange
Tim Harding
Historian and FIDE Arbiter

Author of 'Steinitz in London,' British Chess Literature to 1914', 'Joseph Henry Blackburne: A Chess Biography', and 'Eminent Victorian Chess Players'
http://www.chessmail.com