English Chess Forum

Jonathan Rogers wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:55 pm

With this momentum, she must have a good chance v Ju Wenjun as well.

Ju Wenjun is different class to the out of form septet who have opposed Goryachkina in Kazan, and she should still be the favourite, assuming the match is played first half in Russia, second half and tie-breaks in China.

Topalov went +6 at San Luis and then drew all the others.

Leonard Barden wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:25 pm

Jonathan Rogers wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:55 pm

With this momentum, she must have a good chance v Ju Wenjun as well.

Ju Wenjun is different class to the out of form septet who have opposed Goryachkina in Kazan, and she should still be the favourite, assuming the match is played first half in Russia, second half and tie-breaks in China.

The argument against is age and momentum - Goryachkina might be considerably stronger still in just another six months. If, by contrast, she were already 26, and had been playing at this level for the past four years, I would of course agree.

Actually I am probably agreeing that Ju Wenjun would still start as favourite, assuming also second half in China; but I am also saying good chance for Goryachkina, say 40-60.

Goryachkina has 7.5/9, TPR 2804, and +31.1 on the live ratings so far; either a great tournament, or a leap in level

If Hou Yifan had decided to play then Goryachkina wouldn't have even got in the tournament!

Mick Norris wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:38 am

Goryachkina has 7.5/9, TPR 2804, and +31.1 on the live ratings so far; either a great tournament, or a leap in level

A bit of both I suppose. I don't think Goryachkina's games look like the games of a 2800 of similar style - say Ding Liren - parachuted into the event. But she does seem to be outplaying enough people from level middlegames to think she might be pushing upwards to 2600.

Peter Svidler described her as "a serious young player" and considered saying who her coach was. He decided not to, even though he thought the name already widely know. Sasha herself also declined to say when asked post-game. So I guess a big name.

I'm very pleased. I was expecting a WC match between Ju Wenjun and someone I was reasonably sure she would beat. But looks like we could have a real contest.

Agreed.

I note Anna Muzychuk's opening v Tan today. Unambitious - but probably deliberately selected to take advantage of Tan's apparent technical weaknesses (she seems so much happier when "things are happening").

Well, I expect that WAS the idea but one can take this sort of thing too far.

(Is it a common experience, incidentally, that when one slightly varies from one's usual style to take advantage of an opponent's apparent shortcomings, it hardly ever seems to work?)

Goryachkina draws with black against her nearest pursuer Lagno

1.5/4 is the maximum she needs to win (as she has a better head to head v Lagno)

Just looking with amusement at SF first line in Gunina v Dzagnidze, recommnding 22 ...Rxe1 for Black, with probably a winning position because Black isn't quite getting mated.

Well, would you?!

Goryachkina draws with A Muzychuk and her nearest pursuer Lagno draws with M Muzychuk

0.5/3 is the maximum she needs to win now

Mick Norris wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:33 pm

Goryachkina draws with A Muzychuk and her nearest pursuer Lagno draws with M Muzychuk

0.5/3 is the maximum she needs to win now

0.5 more than sufficed with Lahno losing to Anna Muzychuk.

Kosteniuk seems to have forgotten how to play with the Black pieces

Goryachkina should be congratulated for an excellent performance, where she has comprehensively won a tournament which on paper at the start looked to be contested by a very evenly matched field of players.

I know that my grumbling about Round Robins is becoming akin to Roger's grumbling about the membership system, but the Women's Candidates is a good example of why Round Robins - particularly of this length - can be a very poor format.

There are three days left in this tournament, a rest day tomorrow, and then two more game days. Like so many sporting events worldwide, the only thing history will remember is the winner, and we already know who that is - indeed, we've been pretty certain about it for a few days already. Three days of garbage time at the end of the tournament is rather a lot. I'm sure it's nothing we haven't seen before in the GCT speed Round Robins, but at least because it's speed chess there's only maybe an hour of garbage time rather than three days.