Start Date of Next Lockdown?

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Matthew Turner
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Matthew Turner » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:40 am

NickFaulks wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:29 am
Matthew Turner wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:24 am
Arguing over whether it is 40,50 or 60 % now is irrelevant
As above, it is 40 minus B, so the "argument" is whether it is 30, 20 or 10%.
According to Matt Hancock it was 20% in mid June

Roger de Coverly
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Roger de Coverly » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:49 am

Angus French wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:12 am
Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group wrote:It is important to track the impact on the NHS, which in turn affects mortality and policy decisions. Mechanical Ventilation (MV) bed occupancy is one useful indicator. In our earlier bulletin Nicola Oliver discussed how the need for staff with sufficient expertise for ICU treatment make capacity limits relatively inflexible in the short term.

647 MV beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients on 21 July, the last date for which data is available. The average rate of increase in UK MV bed occupancy was about 3.5% over the last month.
It's a possible credible leading indicator, but are a Government going to disrupt the lives of millions of people because of a shortfall of a hundred or so specialist hospital beds with ventilators and staff with skills to operate them? I do recall that until they found other treatments, that back in March or April 2020 every potential manufacturer was being approached to supply ventilators. I also recall that there was an attempt to recruit ex-staff with relevant medical experience, but not so much of an emergency to set aside form filling and box ticking as conditions of employment.

NickFaulks
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:57 am

Angus French wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:36 am
Yes, but how is this germane to the current thread?
It wasn't me who introduced the idea, but actually I think it is germane.

More people are getting their second jab all the time ( even if first jabs are stalling ), so if double vaccination does generally keep you out of an ICU bed, that is clearly too important to ignore.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever.

Matthew Turner
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Matthew Turner » Mon Jul 26, 2021 10:40 am

Some examination of the numbers from the BBC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5789 ... type=share

Mick Norris
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Mick Norris » Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:00 am

NickFaulks wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:57 am
Angus French wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:36 am
Yes, but how is this germane to the current thread?
It wasn't me who introduced the idea, but actually I think it is germane.

More people are getting their second jab all the time ( even if first jabs are stalling ), so if double vaccination does generally keep you out of an ICU bed, that is clearly too important to ignore.
I think we had very limited data from Bolton hospital a few weeks ago that the only double vaccinated people (more than 14 days since 2nd jab) in ICU were ones that had other underlying health issues

I'm assuming this is the point you are making, that intuitively we would expect very few double vaccinated in ICU; of course, if they're in hospital but not ICU, they are still taking up beds and needing staff

I'm assuming that some hospitals are much more stretched than others, as some areas have lower vaccine take up and high numbers of Covid cases

Edit- reported on NW news that 4 Manchester hospitals have issued a red alert for A&E but emphasise this is not due to Covid but a large increase in patients for various reasons, combined with staff shortages
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Stephen Westmoreland
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Stephen Westmoreland » Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:20 pm

D&V is running through hospitals and shutting wards down apparently.

soheil_hooshdaran
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by soheil_hooshdaran » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:36 pm

Vaccines are now less effective, as Delta becomes the dominant variant

Thomas Rendle
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Thomas Rendle » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:42 pm

soheil_hooshdaran wrote:
Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:36 pm
Vaccines are now less effective, as Delta becomes the dominant variant
I'm not sure there's any evidence for that? It certainly spread fast, but 2x vaccines are still very effective at preventing serious illness.

soheil_hooshdaran
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by soheil_hooshdaran » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:42 pm

This is what CDC data shows, the USA center for disease control.

Thomas Rendle
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Thomas Rendle » Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:44 pm

Yes, but for example 2x Pfizer is about 88% effective (at preventing symptomatic disease) vs Delta, compared with 93.7% vs Alpha. So 'less effective' but still very effective (and % is of course higher for preventing serious disease/ICU etc.)

Matthew Turner
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Matthew Turner » Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:54 pm

Intuitively for a disease to go from pandemic to endemic (or herd immunity if you like) you need

proportion with antibodies * R < 1

where proportion with antibodies = those who had covid + (vaccinated * vaccine effectiveness)

The problem with the delta variant is that it reduces the vaccine effectiveness and increases R so takes us further away in two ways.

Thomas Rendle
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Thomas Rendle » Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:01 pm

Agreed, the spread of Delta is obviously concerning.

NickFaulks
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:58 am

Matthew Turner wrote:
Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:54 pm
Intuitively for a disease to go from pandemic to endemic (or herd immunity if you like) you need

proportion with antibodies * R < 1

where proportion with antibodies = those who had covid + (vaccinated * vaccine effectiveness)

The problem with the delta variant is that it reduces the vaccine effectiveness and increases R so takes us further away in two ways.
I think this should read "proportion without antibodies".

According to official ONS numbers, over 90 per cent of adults in the UK have antibodies, and 99 per cent of those over 50 - remember we were originally told that "vulnerable" meant over 70. What percentage are we waiting for? It is looking suspiciously like 100%.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever.

Matthew Turner
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Matthew Turner » Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:05 am

NickFaulks wrote:
Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:58 am
Matthew Turner wrote:
Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:54 pm
Intuitively for a disease to go from pandemic to endemic (or herd immunity if you like) you need

proportion with antibodies * R < 1

where proportion with antibodies = those who had covid + (vaccinated * vaccine effectiveness)

The problem with the delta variant is that it reduces the vaccine effectiveness and increases R so takes us further away in two ways.
I think this should read "proportion without antibodies".

According to official ONS numbers, over 90 per cent of adults in the UK have antibodies, and 99 per cent of those over 50 - remember we were originally told that "vulnerable" meant over 70. What percentage are we waiting for? It is looking suspiciously like 100%.
Yes you are right it should be

Intuitively for a disease to go from pandemic to endemic (or herd immunity if you like) you need

proportion without antibodies * R < 1

where proportion without antibodies = 1 - those who had covid + (vaccinated * vaccine effectiveness)

The problem with the delta variant is that it reduces the vaccine effectiveness and increases R so takes us further away in two ways.

Nick,
You can put numbers in yourself, so what level of vaccine take up is required?

NickFaulks
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Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:12 am

We don't even need that input, because proportion without antibodies is measured ( or at least modelled ) directly.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... in-england

Unless R > 10, which I have not seen suggested, we're good to go.

edited to add link.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever.

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