Start Date of Next Lockdown?

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Matthew Turner
Posts: 3513
Joined: Fri May 16, 2008 11:54 am

Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Matthew Turner » Sat Jul 31, 2021 11:44 am

NickFaulks wrote:
Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:12 am
We don't even need that input, because proportion without antibodies is measured ( or at least modelled ) directly.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... in-england

Unless R > 10, which I have not seen suggested, we're good to go.

edited to add link.
I had not seen that data before. I think the R for the Delta variant is estimated to be 7. So, I would agree with you there.

Matthew Turner
Posts: 3513
Joined: Fri May 16, 2008 11:54 am

Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by Matthew Turner » Sat Jul 31, 2021 11:43 pm

It not quite as simple as that because this survey only looks at adults, so depending what proportion of children have antibodies with a variant like Delta with an R of 7 the number of cases could still have an upward trajectory, but probably only for a 'limited' period.

MartinCarpenter
Posts: 2748
Joined: Tue May 24, 2011 10:58 am

Re: Start Date of Next Lockdown?

Post by MartinCarpenter » Sun Aug 01, 2021 9:32 am

R changes with how the population being infected behaves of course, so if its 7 right now you could relatively easily tip over.

Going back to 'normal' would, I guess, there's decent evidence building that the football was enough by itself.

Hence why lifting the regulations was hedged round so much. Interesting to see various surveys suggesting that the population behaviour hasn't meaningfully changed since.

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