Brexit tea leaves

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Alex Holowczak
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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by Alex Holowczak » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:25 pm

John McKenna wrote:
Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:11 pm
One moral of this story is that you can never assume that a combination of events is so unlikely as not to be worth bothering about.
That's Nick Faulks in another place, but it applies here in spades e.g. -
Tied votes

If the vote is tied - which is very unusual - in the Commons the Speaker has the casting vote. The Speaker casts his vote according to what was done in similar circumstances in the past. Where possible the issue should remain open for further discussion and no final decision should be made by a casting vote.

In the Lords, the Lord Speaker does not have a casting vote. Instead, the tied vote is resolved according to established rules (called the Standing Orders).
https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/business/divisions/
There was a tied vote in the Commons earlier this year. I don't think there will be a tie tonight; there seem to be enough Conservative rebels to outnumber the Labour rebels.

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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by John McKenna » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:34 pm

Can it be assumed then that all the MPs of all the other parties are united and so there are no other rebels?

I can only be sure of the Green one.
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by Alex Holowczak » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:53 pm

John McKenna wrote:
Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:34 pm
Can it be assumed then that all the MPs of all the other parties are united and so there are no other rebels?

I can only be sure of the Green one.
Yes, I think so.

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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by John McKenna » Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:05 am

Here's one that's already jumped ship:- On 6 December 2018, Stephen Lloyd resigned the Liberal Democrat whip in Parliament over Brexit...

Now sitting as an Independent MP he remains a member of the Liberal Democrats.

"Though I fought as a Remainer during the referendum... I also made a clear promise to my constituency... that I would accept the result, support the deal the PM brought back from the EU and not back calls for a second referendum...I will be keeping my word to my town..."

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24754 ... eastbourne
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:56 pm

So, quite a lot has happened since the last post in this thread (on 4th September). Did any of the predictions come true? Are things becoming any clearer? Are the parallels with the previous December election in 1923 valid?

1923 United Kingdom general election
The 1923 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 6 December 1923. The Conservatives, led by Stanley Baldwin, won the most seats, but Labour, led by Ramsay MacDonald, and H. H. Asquith's reunited Liberal Party gained enough seats to produce a hung parliament. It was the last UK general election in which a third party (the Liberals) won more than 100 seats, or received more than 26% of the vote.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:25 pm

So this election wasn't a re-run of 1923. It appears to have been a re-run of 2017, but with some key differences (different Conservative leader, more Brexit fatigue, and a Labour heartland that had lost patience with Corbyn's Labour). Any thoughts on the election and what the future might hold?

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:37 pm

We're f***ed?
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John Clarke
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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by John Clarke » Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:23 pm

I guess BoJo is Her Majesty's fourteenth and last Prime Minister.
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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by John Upham » Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:17 pm

This might be controversial but...

Had all the English parties been openly Pro-Brexit (and, for the record, I'm not) then I wonder what would have been the outcome of the General Election ?

I think I am asking what would have been the outcome had Brexit not been merged in with the General Election ?
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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by Nick Burrows » Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:38 pm

John Upham wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:17 pm
Had all the English parties been openly Pro-Brexit (and, for the record, I'm not) then I wonder what would have been the outcome of the General Election ?
The same outcome as every other general election - whoever Rupert Murdoch endorses. Every single government formed since 1969 when he took over The Sun has had his endorsement.

The notion of democracy is a sham.

He who controls the narrative, controls the outcome.

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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by John Upham » Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:18 pm

Nick Burrows wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:38 pm
John Upham wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:17 pm
Had all the English parties been openly Pro-Brexit (and, for the record, I'm not) then I wonder what would have been the outcome of the General Election ?
The same outcome as every other general election - whoever Rupert Murdoch endorses. Every single government formed since 1969 when he took over The Sun has had his endorsement.

The notion of democracy is a sham.

He who controls the narrative, controls the outcome.
Murdoch has therefore backed


Edward Heath
Harold Wilson
James Callaghan
Margaret Thatcher
John Major
Tony Blair
Gordon Brown
David Cameron
Theresa May
Boris Johnson

I did not know that.
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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:16 am

At some point, yes he has.

Does this surprise you?
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John McKenna
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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by John McKenna » Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:38 am

John Upham wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:17 pm
This might be controversial but...

Had all the English parties been openly Pro-Brexit (and, for the record, I'm not) then I wonder what would have been the outcome of the General Election ?

SNIP
What follows may also be controversial, but we're on the far side now so what the heck...

You, also, don't seem to know that there were no "English parties", to speak of, in the General Election.

The Conservative & Unionist Party stood candidates in all four nations of the so-called "United Kingdom" (a state that is becoming more and more of an oxymoron). As did UKIP and the Green Parties (of England & Wales, of Scotland, and of Northern Ireland).

The Labour Party, the Liberal Democrat Party and the Brexit Party stood candidates in England, Scotland & Wales. I.e. in Britain.

The only "English parties" are now all defunct and included the English Democrats, the Free England Party and the New England Party.

[NB: The various nationalist parties of the "UK" have only stood candidates in their own respective nations.]

However, given that the Conservative & Unionist Party won no seats in N. Ireland and only hung on to a handful in Scotland, and that Labour only retained one (Scottish) seat outside England & Wales they, and the Liberal Democrats, could all be termed - British parties.

And, the day may be coming when those three main British parties are reduced to winning seats only in England & Wales. What adjective would best fit then?

Hard to see the Welsh getting free - they're too welded onto the smother country and, apart from the isolated strongholds of their national language and culture, are too Anglicised.

So much for purely English political nationalism then.

Of course, the leading English politico-cultural nationalists (and their Scottish, Welsh and N. Irish allies) always feared bring subsumed into some form of European Empire, or other.

Hence the strong will to Brexit has told in the end. Or has it? The ties that bind remain to be cut and form a modern Gordian knot that Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson has only just managed to free a hand to try to take a sword to, in the spirit of an old hack.
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by John Upham » Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:20 am

I should have made myself clear and apologise for not doing so. What I wrote (in the style of Ernie Wise) was ambiguous.

By "English Parties" I meant

The Conservative & Unionist Party
The Labour Party
The Liberal Democratic Party
The Green Party
The Brexit Party

rather than say the SNP, PC, DUP, SDLP, SF etc.

I was not referring to parties with the word English in their title.
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John McKenna
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Re: Brexit tea leaves

Post by John McKenna » Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:08 am

"I was not referring to parties with the word English in their title."

Neither was I, primarily.

Thanks for the clarification, John.

Keep up the good work - much appreciated whenever I peruse the fixture lists, etc, etc.
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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