Brexit tea leaves

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Nick, do you think that if Remain had won the initial referendum, that opinion would have turned against that result, or solidified over time? The opinion polls correctly predicted the election result. Are the polls incorrect to say that more people back Remain now than Leave? There is a contradiction here. Are the polls worse at gauging Brexit feelings than at gauging election results?

The People's Vote campaign internal politicking (and worse allegedly) did not help. Millions (including me) supported and marched in those rallies. It is insulting to then hear a politician (Tory MP Gillian Keegan) say this morning "It is the end of the second referendum mob." What gives her the right to refer to those supporting a second referendum as a mob?

[Jon Tait]

"We won, you lost, suck it up."

Well, yes, that is how democracy works.

Not really. There isn't any constitutional procedure for referenda. People can decide to have a new one if they want. That is how democracy works. But they didn't, so there isn't going to be a new one. Not in the foreseeable future anyway. Young people may decide they want their revenge at some stage.

[John McKenna]

"...There isn't any constitutional procedure for referenda. People can decide to have a new one if they want. That is how democracy works. But they didn't, so... "

Sorry, Jon, there isn't a constitution, as such, but there are procedures for referenda.

Who are the "people who can decide to have a new one"?

If you mean the electorate who just voted in the Gen. Election they did not have the option of another referendum unless a participating political party was offering one.

The revenge you talk of will have to wait until times change. We older ones lived about 40 years in the EU and could see that although it had fringe benefits it really wasn't working well for the UK.

Unable to fully commit and becoming increasingly marginalised and mocked by the EU centrists in Europe it was on a B-road to nowhere in the spaghetti junction the EU centrists were cooking up.

Finally, UK into EU wouldn't go, so we're going, going, gone...

[Jon Tait]

We older ones lived about 40 years in the EU and could see...

sorry, but...

[John McKenna]

I'm sorry, too...

Your day will come... and go.

Hope you're still laughing then, sonny.

[Jon Tait]

Probably sooner than you think. I'm 56

[John McKenna]

Now I get it, Jon, and retract the 'sonny' as I'm too young to be your dad.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Any thoughts on the move by Boris to remove the possibility of extending the transition period at the end of 2020? Just a negotiating tactic, or a sign of things to come? What else might he try and push through parliament with his majority, and will factions form within his party over this? Can the EU do anything about this - I thought there were some limits on what changes were possible to the Withdrawal Agreement?

It gets worse - also being removed from the bill: "Giving Parliament vote on extending transition"; "Parliamentary oversight of trade negotiations"; and "Non-regression’ on workers’ rights".

So everything that happened over the past year or so in parliament is being rolled back to a "do what you like" model. All that noise about how parliament is sovereign and parliament exists to scrutinise the government and hold it to account only actually means anything if there is a workable opposition.

[John McKenna]

If it be now, 'tis not to come. If it be not to come, it will be now. If it be not now, yet it will come—the readiness is all.

As a passenger (3rd class) I think it best to be prepared, very prepared, for any eventuality when the current PM is now apparently in full command of the ship of state and cracking on sail - in the teeth of a gale - to get to only God knows where as the final destination.

Our magnificent Master and Commander is all at sea and there aren't enough lifeboats to save more than the officers and 1st class passengers from Johnson's titanic undertaking if it goes belly up.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Hamlet's sparrow. Nice. Boris's book about Shakespeare has been delayed.

[Jon Tait]

So everything that happened over the past year or so in parliament is being rolled back to a "do what you like" model. All that noise about how parliament is sovereign and parliament exists to scrutinise the government and hold it to account only actually means anything if there is a workable opposition.

All that is just standard though, isn't it. UK governments generally have useful majorities, rendering the opposition almost irrelevant, and enabling them to push legislation through, despite having no real mandate for it in terms of popular vote. It's only because the Tories have not had that for a few years that Labour + other opposition parties + Tory rebels were able to oppose them effectively and inflict so many defeats. Now we're back to the standard "parliamentary dictatorship" model again.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Yes, but governments mostly don't push through things as radical as this. People were debating which would have more impact on day-to-day life and the economy, a Corbyn government or a no-deal Brexit. We may end up finding out the answer to at least one of those questions. Leaving the EU is the most radical change to the UK in a generation (seriously, when was the last time something as radical as this took place?).

[John McKenna]

Hamlet's sparrow. Nice. Boris's book about Shakespeare has been delayed.

I can see the Euros thinking - this means war.

Howard Staunton brooked no delay when he used his publication date as an excuse to avoid meeting Morphy otb.

If only Johnson would resign himself to his literary pursuits we'd all be able to rest easy.

So everything that happened over the past year or so in parliament is being rolled back to a "do what you like" model. All that noise about how parliament is sovereign and parliament exists to scrutinise the government and hold it to account only actually means anything if there is a workable opposition.

All that is just standard though, isn't it. UK governments generally have useful majorities, rendering the opposition almost irrelevant, and enabling them to push legislation through, despite having no real mandate for it in terms of popular vote. It's only because the Tories have not had that for a few years that Labour + other opposition parties + Tory rebels were able to oppose them effectively and inflict so many defeats. Now we're back to the standard "parliamentary dictatorship" model again.

I'd even welcome the return of that dictatorship if, like the terror during the French Revolution, it consumed and then consigned itself to the dustbin of history.

Hold on though, after all that terror didn't Napoleon go on to bigger and better things? May be, may be not. Could Bojo be our Bonaparte??

Yes, but governments mostly don't push through things as radical as this. People were debating which would have more impact on day-to-day life and the economy, a Corbyn government or a no-deal Brexit. We may end up finding out the answer to at least one of those questions. Leaving the EU is the most radical change to the UK in a generation (seriously, when was the last time something as radical as this took place?)

When Ted Heath's gov. took us into the European Community. (Without so much as a by your leave.)

[NickFaulks]

Can the EU do anything about this - I thought there were some limits on what changes were possible to the Withdrawal Agreement?

No. The EU was only ever able to block Brexit by mobilising its fifth columns in London, and they are now toothless. It's over. The EU recognises this, and so should you.

Fitly years ago, future existence in the UK looked so hopeless to many people that they voted with their feet and headed out for a better life in places such as Canada or Australia. A number of my own friends and family did this. It will be interesting to see whether there will now follow a mass exodus of British citizens who cannot face life outside the protection of the Brussels Empire - they have 27 attractive destinations to choose between, after all. Personally, I am not expecting this.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

What you say there isn't true, Nick. Brexit isn't something simple that can be "done" (despite what Boris said). There is still some way to go on this. The exodus may well be of companies and jobs.

There will be some more twists and turns before it is done. Some have been predicted, some may be a surprise. Who can tell what things will be like in 50 years' time. Maybe we should see how things look in 1 year's time (the deadline that Boris has imposed, but can change if he wishes), and then in 5 years' time when there will be another election.