Brexit tea leaves

[John McKenna]

It could be seen as this one by Ursula von der Leyen -

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 6.html?amp

Obviously she would give us an extension for as long as we like, ideally forever. The problem for Boris is that if we don't leave ( and really leave, which still looks as though it can only mean no deal ) by 31st October, then he won't need to worry about Philip Pullman, because his own supporters will be wanting a quiet word.

The time for a quiet word in a shell-like ear would seem to have passed if this is anothing to go by -

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... cking/amp/

[Pete Morriss]

At the moment governments on both sides are reconciled to the idea of no deal but are keen to make it look as though they tried really hard to get one.

Agreed, in the main, which is why I thought that maybe Parliament, a majority of which seems not to be so reconciled, might still take the least-bad deal on offer, if Johnson fails to come back with a new one. By the way, I think that the Irish government is not reconciled to no deal, but unfortunately seems to have no Plan B - at least in public.

[John McKenna]

Plan B -

No deal Brexit CRISIS: Terrified Ireland pleads for EU emergency aid ahead of October 31

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/11 ... latest/amp

[NickFaulks]

Plan B -

No deal Brexit CRISIS: Terrified Ireland pleads for EU emergency aid ahead of October 31

I wonder at what point the Germans will tire of this game. With us gone, they will be footing an even bigger share of these bills that they are now.

[John McKenna]

Plan B -

No deal Brexit CRISIS: Terrified Ireland pleads for EU emergency aid ahead of October 31

I wonder at what point the Germans will tire of this game. With us gone, they will be footing an even bigger share of these bills that they are now.

They seem to believe it's all for a good cause, Nick.

There's quite a difference between being at the centre of Europe as opposed to the edge.

One hope for Brexit is that it will rebalance that by putting these Islands politically and economically back where they've mainly been since the 17th c. - somewhere between two burgeoning continents.

[NickFaulks]

somewhere between two burgeoning continents.

Except the two burgeoning continents are now separated by the Pacific Ocean.

[Alex Holowczak]

How long it is since the last Prime Minister was a Lord?

Douglas-Home?

Nearly but, on a technicality, not quite, Alex.

I guessed Lord Salisbury before I looked it up, and found -

The last peer to be called upon to serve as Prime Minister, Sir Alec Douglas-Home, renounced his peerage shortly after taking office in 1963. The Marquess of Salisbury, who retired in 1902, was the last Prime Minister to lead a government from the Lords.

https://history.blog.gov.uk/2013/04/24/ ... -of-lords/

Being wrong on a technicality is the best way of being wrong.

[John McKenna]

Sorry to disappoint, Alex,

I now believe that you were technically correct since Sir Alec did not give up his peerage before becoming PM and only did so shortly after.

[John McKenna]

somewhere between two burgeoning continents.

Except the two burgeoning continents are now separated by the Pacific Ocean.

That's true enough now, Nick.

However, the Chinese, and their Russian associates, are already relinking Europe to Asia via their Belt & Road initiative and the Eurasian landmass is being primed to rival N. America as the centre of world trade.

To counter that shift the idea was for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to keep the Pacific Ocean as the world's main trade route. The failure of the USA to continue driving that initiave, and withdraw from it, is a failure of leadership that they may well regret in years to come.

For the UK one question is - post Brexit will it be possible to join the TPP and can the US be persuaded to reengage with it by reversing it's self-defeating isolationist policies ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-45780889

For our friends in the EU the question is - where will the Belt & Road initiative lead, and leave, them in the scheme of things?

It's the old Great Game in a new guise - who can outflank the other on the world stage?

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Something will happen today on this. Quite a lot has happened since the last posts in this thread. Maybe things are becoming a bit clearer?

[Alex Holowczak]

Sorry to disappoint, Alex,

I now believe that you were technically correct since Sir Alec did not give up his peerage before becoming PM and only did so shortly after.

Even better!

[Alex Holowczak]

Something will happen today on this. Quite a lot has happened since the last posts in this thread. Maybe things are becoming a bit clearer?

May and Johnson were obviously divided on how to handle Brexit, but Boris's statement last night suggests they are united in a desire to make statements that don't actually say anything.

[Matthew Turner]

I think Boris Johnson wanted to do two things yesterday.
1. Make it clear that the vote on extending article 50 was a vote of confidence (i.e. would lead to an election if the government were defeated)
2. That an election would take place on 14th October - before the EU summit limiting the arguments of those who would try to stop an election

Many things could happen, but I do think Boris Johnson is controlling the agenda pretty well (in a way that May never did)

[Christopher Kreuzer]

And now the government majority has officially gone, as Tory MP Philip Lee has defected to the Liberal Democrats.

[John McKenna]

One moral of this story is that you can never assume that a combination of events is so unlikely as not to be worth bothering about.

That's Nick Faulks in another place, but it applies here in spades e.g. -

Tied votes

If the vote is tied - which is very unusual - in the Commons the Speaker has the casting vote. The Speaker casts his vote according to what was done in similar circumstances in the past. Where possible the issue should remain open for further discussion and no final decision should be made by a casting vote.

In the Lords, the Lord Speaker does not have a casting vote. Instead, the tied vote is resolved according to established rules (called the Standing Orders).

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/business/divisions/