COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

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Mick Norris
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Mick Norris » Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:11 am

Partly, the vaccine roll-out depends on supplies, with glass vials in short supply rather than the vaccines themselves by the sound of it

The real problem is probably going to be the staffing, although the quality of the organisation on the ground is an issue too; my girlfriend is going to help out on the admin side at the vaccine hub in Liverpool this afternoon, because one of her colleagues is there this morning and said they are short staffed; her GP practice has just lost 1 of their doctors who has been called in to help plug the staff shortage at the hospital, and they haven't been able to supply a nurse to the vaccine centre as they have staff off sick

Cases appear to be accelerating in the North West, much later than in other parts of the UK, but worrying nonetheless
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John McKenna
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by John McKenna » Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:54 pm

Meanwhile -

"2020 had highest number of deaths in England and Wales since the First World War"

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/2020-set-to-h ... 09798.html

Take a look at the first graph and you can see that the death toll started rising significantly - from a post-1950 low to near historic heights - just after 2010. Another example of the government "ramping things (deaths) up" due to cutting down (austerity).

Really the post-crash administrations in the UK should have bern subject to government health warnings - THIS GOVERNMENT CAN SERIOUSLY DAMAGE YOUR HEALTH AND INCREASE DANGER OF DEATH.
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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Paul Robert Jackson
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Paul Robert Jackson » Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:46 pm

John McKenna wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:54 pm
Meanwhile -

"2020 had highest number of deaths in England and Wales since the First World War"

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/2020-set-to-h ... 09798.html

Take a look at the first graph and you can see that the death toll started rising significantly - from a post-1950 low to near historic heights - just after 2010. Another example of the government "ramping things (deaths) up" due to cutting down (austerity).

Really the post-crash administrations in the UK should have bern subject to government health warnings - THIS GOVERNMENT CAN SERIOUSLY DAMAGE YOUR HEALTH AND INCREASE DANGER OF DEATH.
Is the other earlier spike due to the Spanish Flu Pandemic?
Paul Robert Jackson

Roger de Coverly
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Roger de Coverly » Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:47 pm

John McKenna wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:54 pm
Another example of the government "ramping things (deaths) up" due to cutting down (austerity).
I think you may find that when there's an increase in the population, there's a parallel increase in the number of deaths.

The story on longevity prior to 2020 was that those born, for example, in 1950 are still on average living to an older age than those born in 1940, but it's not such a big difference as between those born in 1940 to those born in 1930.

The number of COVID related deaths exceeded civilian deaths in 1940 some while ago.

Mick Norris
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Mick Norris » Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:48 pm

Separate figures published by the UK’s statistics agencies for deaths where COVID-19 has been mentioned on the death certificate estimate there could have been as many as 93,000 deaths involving COVID-19 in the UK.

The last time England and Wales reported more than 600,000 deaths in a single year was more than a century ago in 1918, when the First World War came to an end and as the Spanish flu pandemic took hold.

The figures for 2020 were 14% higher than the five-year average.
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Mick Norris
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Mick Norris » Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:53 pm

Roger de Coverly wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:47 pm
John McKenna wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:54 pm
Another example of the government "ramping things (deaths) up" due to cutting down (austerity).
I think you may find that when there's an increase in the population, there's a parallel increase in the number of deaths
When the age and size of the population is taken into account, 2020 saw the worst death rates since the 2000s.

This measure - known as age-standardised mortality - takes into account population growth and age.

The data is only available until November - so the impact of deaths in December have not yet been taken into account - but it shows the death rate at that stage was at its highest in England since 2008.
Taken from BBC Health

The quotes further down are fairly pointed
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Kevin Thurlow
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Kevin Thurlow » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:53 pm

There will always be a few false positives and negatives in any sort of testing. Here you may get a "false" negative as it's just too early for it to show up.

The death rate will increase due to other illnesses as well. People are not seeking appointments either through fear, or through thoughtfulness, not wanting to clutter up a hospital with their problems when there's a pandemic. There are staff diverted elsewhere as well of course.

MartinCarpenter
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by MartinCarpenter » Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:55 am

Matthew Turner wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:59 am
I was thinking more about what it means for the roll-out of the vaccine rather than the specifics of the case itself.
The comforting thing there is that, unlike everything else so far, a vaccine roll out is very hard to truly mess up. Yes it'll be a bit slower than the ideal for a bunch of reasons and we're obviously losing far more people than you'd like every week.

None of that will stop it rolling forward in time.

Mick Norris
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Mick Norris » Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:51 am

Based on yesterday, it appears that a vaccine centre (not the large ones) can do 2,000 patients a week at least, subject to a sufficient supply of vaccines and patients and staff; not difficult to see there being a 1,000 centres nationwide (e.g. there's more than 2 in Liverpool area), and hence hitting the 2m a week target

Of course, in 12 weeks time, they'll need to get everyone back from this week for dose 2
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John McKenna
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by John McKenna » Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:31 am

Those 12 weeks take us to the end of March.

With, I believe a review of progress in mid-Feb.
“By the middle of February, if things go well and with a fair wind in our sails, we expect to have offered the first vaccine dose to everyone in the four top priority groups identified by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation.”

However, the Prime Minister confirmed they would “remain cautious about the timetable ahead”.
All legislation for the new lockdown is in place until March 31st meaning the rules and restrictions may need to be followed until then, depending on how the vaccine is rolled out and how the NHS is coping.
(LBC Radio)

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/when-does-lo ... nish-date/
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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Jon Tait
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Jon Tait » Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:09 am

Over 100,000 deaths now, with the worst per capita death rate IN THE WORLD.
But Boris Johnson says he's deeply sorry and did everything he could, so no worries then :roll: :roll: :roll:
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Ihor Lewyk
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Ihor Lewyk » Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:15 am

Jon Tait wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:09 am
Over 100,000 deaths now, with the worst per capita death rate IN THE WORLD.
But Boris Johnson says he's deeply sorry and did everything he could, so no worries then :roll: :roll: :roll:
But the economy is doing great. Oh no at second glance it is just about the worse hit in the western world.
But hey! He got Brexit done! :(

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Jon Tait
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Jon Tait » Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:06 am

Ihor Lewyk wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:15 am
But the economy is doing great. Oh no at second glance it is just about the worse hit in the western world.
But hey! He got Brexit done! :(
With the former being exarcerbated by the latter as well.
blog inspired by Bronstein's book, but using my own games: http://200opengames.blogspot.co.uk/

David Sedgwick
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by David Sedgwick » Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:56 pm

Jon Tait wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:09 am
Over 100,000 deaths now, with the worst per capita death rate IN THE WORLD.
But Boris Johnson says he's deeply sorry and did everything he could, so no worries then :roll: :roll: :roll:

Belgium, Slovenia and the Czech Republic all have higher per capita death rates, as do two micro states Gibraltar and San Marino.

However, facts don't matter when maligning the Prime Minister, so no worries then.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Mick Norris
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Re: COVid19-What's wrong with UK?

Post by Mick Norris » Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:03 pm

Covid-19: 'Poor decisions' to blame for UK death toll, scientists say
Prof Linda Bauld, public health expert from the University of Edinburgh, said the UK's current position was "a legacy of poor decisions that were taken when we eased restrictions".

She told the BBC the lack of focus on test and trace and the "absolute inability to recognise" the need to address international travel had also led to a more deadly winter surge.

Prof Sir Michael Marmot, who carried out a review of inequalities in Covid-19 deaths, said the UK had entered the pandemic "in a bad state" with rising health inequality, a slowdown in life expectancy improvements and a lack of investment in the public sector.
I think each of us who know someone who has died from Covid 19 (one of my clients died this month with it) will have a view
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